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Will the Economic Impact of COVID-19 Persist? Prognosis from 21st Century Pandemics

Will the Economic Impact of COVID-19 Persist? Prognosis from 21st Century Pandemics
Author: Johannes Emmerling
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 38
Release: 2021-04-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513582356
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COVID-19 has had a disruptive economic impact in 2020, but how long its impact will persist remains unclear. We offer a prognosis based on an analysis of the effects of five previous major epidemics in this century. We find that these pandemics led to significant and persistent reductions in disposable income, along with increases in unemployment, income inequality and public debt-to-GDP ratios. Energy use and CO2 emissions dropped, but mostly because of the persistent decline in the level of economic activity rather than structural changes in the energy sector. Applying our empirical estimates to project the impact of COVID-19, we foresee significant scarring in economic performance and income distribution through 2025, which be associated with an increase in poverty of about 75 million people. Policy responses more effective than those in the past would be required to forestall these outcomes.

The Social and Economic Impact of Covid–19: Rapid Transformation of the 21st Century Society

The Social and Economic Impact of Covid–19: Rapid Transformation of the 21st Century Society
Author: Marcel Mečiar
Publisher: IJOPEC PUBLICATION
Total Pages: 201
Release: 2021-05-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1913809994
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The contributions in this book demonstrate that the Covid-19 pandemic has led to negative socioeconomic impacts, put a tremendous strain on social institutions in many countries, and changed the lives of people around the world. Society, economy, business companies, management structures of companies, consumption habits of society, education, and health sector have been significantly affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. Some of these effects are thought to be permanent even after the pandemic subsides. It is obvious that the process of digitization will continue in making a consumer’s life more comfortable and safer. Some researchers estimate that approximately 60 percent of companies plan to let their employees continue working remotely from home offices in the post-pandemic period. Many experts emphasize that online shopping, which increased rapidly during the pandemic period, will continue to dominate after the pandemic. Therefore, the social effects of the Covid-19 pandemic will be the subject of many academic studies today and in the future.

After-Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Prospects for Medium-Term Economic Damage

After-Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Prospects for Medium-Term Economic Damage
Author: Mr. Philip Barrett
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 23
Release: 2021-07-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513587900
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The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a severe global recession with differential impacts within and across countries. This paper examines the possible persistent effects (scarring) of the pandemic on the economy and the channels through which they may occur. History suggests that deep recessions often leave long-lived scars, particularly to productivity. Importantly, financial instabilities—typically associated with worse scarring—have been largely avoided in the current crisis so far. While medium-term output losses are anticipated to be lower than after the global financial crisis, they are still expected to be substantial. The degree of expected scarring varies across countries, depending on the structure of economies and the size of the policy response. Emerging market and developing economies are expected to suffer more scarring than advanced economies.

Covid-19 and the Global Political Economy

Covid-19 and the Global Political Economy
Author: Tim Di Muzio
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Total Pages: 291
Release: 2022-09-26
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1000653919
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Covid-19 and the Global Political Economy investigates and explores how far and in what ways the Covid-19 pandemic is challenging, restructuring, and perhaps remaking aspects of the global political economy. Since the 1970s, neoliberal capitalism has been the guiding principle of global development: fiscal discipline, privatisations, deregulation, the liberalisation of trade and investment regimes, and lower corporate and wealth taxation. But, after Covid-19, will these trends continue, particularly when states are continuing to struggle with overcoming the pandemic and violating one of neoliberalism’s key principles: balanced budgets? The pandemic has exposed the fragility of the global political economy, and it can be argued that the intensification of global trade, tourism, and finance over the past 30 years has facilitated the spread of infectious diseases such as Covid-19. Therefore, economies in lockdown, jittery markets, and massive government spending have sparked interest in potentially re-evaluating certain features of the global political economy. This volume brings together leading and upcoming critical scholars in international relations and international political economy to provide novel, timely, and innovative research on how the Covid-19 pandemic is impacting (and will continue to impact) the global economy in important dimensions, including state fiscal policy, monetary policy, the accumulation of debt, health and social reproduction, and the future of austerity and the fate of neoliberalism. This book will be of great interest to students, scholars, and experts in international relations and international political economy, as well as history, anthropology, political science, sociology, cultural studies, economics, development studies, and human geography. Chapter 8 of this book is freely available as a downloadable Open Access PDF at http://www.taylorfrancis.com under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives (CC-BY-NC-ND) 4.0 license.

Economic Impact and Recovery Following a Global Health Crisis

Economic Impact and Recovery Following a Global Health Crisis
Author: Sloboda, Brian W.
Publisher: IGI Global
Total Pages: 253
Release: 2022-01-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1799869024
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The COVID-19 pandemic has raised challenges in the assessment of macroeconomic and microeconomic impacts. The impacts of COVID-19 on the macro and micro sectors of the economy and the current and future economic tendencies have yet to be determined. The impact of COVID-19 research holds limitless potential, but the necessary research for professionals to understand the economic impacts is lacking and unclear. Economic Impact and Recovery Following a Global Health Crisis assesses the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic with a focus on the macroeconomic and microeconomic and uses various statistical methods and real-world data to predict and establish specific trends within the economy. Covering topics such as firm behavior and national economies, it is ideal for policymakers, industry professionals, researchers, academicians, instructors, and students.

Economic Policy for a Pandemic Age

Economic Policy for a Pandemic Age
Author: Monica de Bolle
Publisher: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Total Pages: 149
Release: 2021-04-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0881327425
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The global health and economic threats from the COVID-19 pandemic are not yet behind us. While the development of multiple safe and highly effective vaccines in less than a year is cause for hope, several significant dangers to recovery of global health and income are still clear and present: New concerning variants of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, continue to emerge at an alarming rate in different parts of the world; at the same time, vaccine rollouts have been shockingly inefficient even in some rich countries, while much of the developing world waits in line behind them for vaccines to arrive. The Briefing covers several policy areas in which cooperative forward-looking policy action will materially improve our chances of truly escaping today's pandemic and making future pandemics less costly.

The Effects of COVID-19 on the Global and Domestic Economy

The Effects of COVID-19 on the Global and Domestic Economy
Author: Magnus Strömberg
Publisher: Nova Snova
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2021-08-03
Genre: COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020-
ISBN: 9781536199529
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In the year since the COVID-19 outbreak was first diagnosed, it has spread to over 200 countries and all U.S. states. The pandemic has negatively affected global economic growth beyond anything experienced in nearly a century. Estimates so far indicate the virus reduced global economic growth to an annualized rate of -4.5% to -6.0% in 2020, with a partial recovery of 2.5% to 5.2% projected for 2021. Global trade is estimated to have fallen by 5.3% in 2020, but is projected to grow by 8.0% in 2021. The full economic impact of the pandemic likely will remain unclear until the negative health effects peak. This book provides an overview of the global and domestic economic costs to date and the response by governments and international institutions to address these effects.

Global Economic Prospects, June 2020

Global Economic Prospects, June 2020
Author: World Bank Group
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 402
Release: 2020-07-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1464815801
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The COVID-19 pandemic has, with alarming speed, dealt a heavy blow to an already-weak global economy, which is expected to slide into its deepest recession since the second world war, despite unprecedented policy support. The global recession would be deeper if countries take longer to bring the pandemic under control, if financial stress triggers defaults, or if there are protracted effects on households and firms. Economic disruptions are likely to be more severe and protracted in emerging market and developing economies with larger domestic outbreaks and weaker medical care systems; greater exposure to international spillovers through trade, tourism, and commodity and financial markets; weaker macroeconomic frameworks; and more pervasive informality and poverty. Beyond the current steep economic contraction, the pandemic is likely to leave lasting scars on the global economy by undermining consumer and investor confidence, human capital, and global value chains. Being mostly a reflection of the recent plunge in global energy demand, low oil prices are unlikely to provide much of a boost to global growth in the near term. While policymakers' immediate priorities are to address the health crisis and moderate the short-term economic losses, the likely long-term consequences of the pandemic highlight the need to forcefully undertake comprehensive reform programs to improve the fundamental drivers of economic growth, once the crisis abates. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by these economies, while the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces.

The Great Divide

The Great Divide
Author: Joseph E. Stiglitz
Publisher: Viking
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2016
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780141981222
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Why has inequality increased in the Western world - and what can we do about it? In The Great Divide, Joseph E. Stiglitz expands on the diagnosis he offered in his best-selling book The Price of Inequality and suggests ways to counter this growing problem. With his characteristic blend of clarity and passion, Stiglitz argues that inequality is a choice - the cumulative result of unjust policies and misguided priorities. In these essays, articles and reflections, Stiglitz fully exposes the inequality - from its dimensions and its causes to its consequences for the world - that is afflicting America and other Western countries in thrall to neoliberalism. From Reagan-era policies to the Great Recession and its long aftermath, Stiglitz delves into the processes and irresponsible policies - deregulation, tax cuts for the rich, the corruption of the political process - that are leaving many people further and further behind and turning the dream of a socially mobile society into an ever more unachievable myth. With formidable yet accessible economic insight, he urges us to embrace real solutions: increasing taxes on corporations and the wealthy; investing in education, science, and infrastructure; helping homeowners instead of banks; and, most importantly, doing more to restore the economy to full employment. Stiglitz's analysis reaches beyond America - the inequality leader of the developed world - to draw lessons from Scandinavia, Singapore, and Japan, and he argues against the tide of unnecessary, destructive austerity that is sweeping across Europe. Ultimately, Stiglitz believes our choice is not between growth and fairness; with the right policies, we can choose both.

The Rise in Inequality After Pandemics: Can Fiscal Support Play a Mitigating Role?

The Rise in Inequality After Pandemics: Can Fiscal Support Play a Mitigating Role?
Author: Davide Furceri
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 26
Release: 2021-04-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513582402
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Major epidemics of the last two decades (SARS, H1N1, MERS, Ebola and Zika) have been followed by increases in inequality (Furceri, Loungani, Ostry and Pizzuto, 2020). In this paper, we show that the extent of fiscal consolidation in the years following the onset of these pandemics has played an important role in determining the extent of the increase in inequality. Episodes marked by extreme austerity—measured using either the government’s fiscal balance, health expenditures or redistribution—have been associated with an increase in the Gini measure of inequality three times as large as in episodes where fiscal policy has been more supportive. We survey the evidence thus far on the distributional impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, which suggests that inequality is likely to increase in the absence of strong policy actions. We review the case made by many observers (IMF 2020; Stiglitz 2020; Sandbu 2020b) that fiscal support should not be withdrawn prematurely despite understandable concerns about high public debt-to-GDP ratios.