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Stock Price Volatility and Political Uncertainty

Stock Price Volatility and Political Uncertainty
Author: Hans-Joachim Voth
Publisher:
Total Pages: 41
Release: 2006
Genre:
ISBN:

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The extreme levels of stock price volatility found during the Great Depression have often been attributed to political uncertainty. This paper performs an explicit test of the Merton/Schwert hypothesis that doubts about the survival of the capitalist system were partly responsible. It does so by using a panel data set on political unrest, demonstrations and other indicators of instability in a set of 10 developed countries during the interwar period. I show that political risks themselves changed dramatically over the period, and are sufficient to account for a large part of the increase in volatility during the Great Depression. This conclusion is robust to a number of alternative specifications. I derive rolling estimates of the risk of revolution, and demonstrate that the strong reaction to incidents of worker militancy such as strikes and riots can be rationalized as a sensible reaction to the risk of expropriation.


The Role of the 1929 Stock Market Crash and other Factors that caused the Great Depression

The Role of the 1929 Stock Market Crash and other Factors that caused the Great Depression
Author: Dennis Sauert
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Total Pages: 68
Release: 2010-09-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3640709853

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Bachelor Thesis from the year 2009 in the subject Economics - History, grade: 1.3, Berlin School of Economics and Law, language: English, abstract: Within macroeconomics, economists agree that there were a number of contributing factors that led to the Great Depression. However, most of the discussion is about what was responsible for the depth and the length of this economic event. In the four years starting in the summer of 1929 until 1933,financial markets and institutions, labor markets as well as international currency and goods markets had stopped functioning and it seemed that economic and monetary policy remained helpless in that period. To analyze the Great Depression, Friedman and Schwartz supply one of the most critical but popular explanations. They focus on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System (hereinafter Fed) of the United States(hereinafter U.S.) since the Fed allowed a severe contraction in money supply in the period of 1929 – 1933, even though the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 delegated monetary actions by the Fed to avoid such monetary contraction. Friedman and Schwartz claim that the severeness of monetary contraction resulted from the Fed’s passive response to the banking panics in the 1930s when the public increased sharply its demand for currency. However, they admit that the Fed conducted a successful policy during most of the 1920s until a “shift in power within the system and the lack of understanding and experience of those individuals to whom the power shifted” occurred. Herein, they point to the death of Benjamin Strong the Governor of the New York Federal Reserve Bank who had the sagacity and leadership to take measures that would have avoided the Great Depression. Thus, they maintain that monetary contraction in the period of 1929 – 1933 induced the Great Depression due to a misguided policy by the Fed that was eventually in authority for the downturn in economic activity.


Stock Volatility and the Great Depression

Stock Volatility and the Great Depression
Author: S. Gustavo S. Cortes
Publisher:
Total Pages: 41
Release: 2017
Genre: Building permits
ISBN:

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Stock volatility during the Great Depression was two to three times higher than any other period in American financial history. The period has been labelled a "volatility puzzle" because scholars have been unable to provide a convincing explanation for the dramatic rise in stock volatility (Schwert, 1989). We investigate the volatility puzzle during the period 1928-1938 using a new series of building permits, a forward-looking measure of economic activity. Our results suggest that the largest stock volatility spike in American history can be predicted by an increase in the volatility of building permit growth. Markets appear to have factored in a forthcoming economic disaster.


Stock Market Jumps and Uncertainty Shocks During the Great Depression

Stock Market Jumps and Uncertainty Shocks During the Great Depression
Author: Gabriel Mathy
Publisher:
Total Pages: 38
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

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Stock market volatility was extremely high during the Great Depression relative to any other period in American history. At the same time, large negative and positive discontinuous jumps in stock returns can be detected using the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2004) test for jumps in financial time-series. These jumps coincided with periods when stock volatility was high as the arrival of new information about the uncertain future drove both the record stock volatility and the record jumps in stock returns. A timeline of the Depression is outlined, with important events that drove uncertainty highlighted such as the collapse of the banking system, policy changes, the breakdown of the gold standard, monetary policy uncertainty, and war jitters.


Global Capital Markets

Global Capital Markets
Author: Maurice Obstfeld
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 386
Release: 2004
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780521671798

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This book is an economic survey of international capital mobility from the late nineteenth century to the present.


Risk Inequality and Welfare States

Risk Inequality and Welfare States
Author: Philipp Rehm
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 263
Release: 2016-05-31
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1316720748

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The transformation of night-watchman states into welfare states is one of the most notable societal developments in recent history. In 1880, not a single country had a nationally compulsory social policy program. A few decades later, every single one of today's rich democracies had adopted programs covering all or almost all of the main risks people face: old age, sickness, accident, and unemployment. These programs rapidly expanded in terms of range, reach, and resources. Today, all rich democracies cover all main risks for a vast majority of citizens, with binding public or mandatory private programs. Three aspects of this remarkable transformation are particularly fascinating: the trend (the transformation to insurance states happened in all rich democracies); differences across countries (the generosity of social policy varies greatly across countries); and the dynamics of the process. This book offers a theory that not only explains this remarkable transition but also explains cross-national differences and the role of crises for social policy development.


The Great Crash 1929

The Great Crash 1929
Author: John Kenneth Galbraith
Publisher: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
Total Pages: 228
Release: 2009
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780547248165

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The classic examination of the 1929 financial collapse, with an introduction by economist James K. Galbraith Of John Kenneth Galbraith's The Great Crash 1929, the Atlantic Monthly said: "Economic writings are seldom notable for their entertainment value, but this book is. Galbraith's prose has grace and wit, and he distills a good deal of sardonic fun from the whopping errors of the nation's oracles and the wondrous antics of the financial community." Originally published in 1955, Galbraith's book became an instant bestseller, and in the years since its release it has become the unparalleled point of reference for readers looking to understand American financial history."