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Why was Stock Market Volatility So High During the Great Depression?

Why was Stock Market Volatility So High During the Great Depression?
Author: Hans-Joachim Voth
Publisher:
Total Pages: 44
Release: 2002
Genre:
ISBN:

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The extreme levels of stock price volatility found during the Great Depression have often been attributed to political uncertainty. This paper performs an explicit test of the Merton/Schwert hypothesis that doubts about the survival of the capitalist system were partly responsible. It does so by using a panel data set on political unrest, demonstrations and other indicators of instability in a set of 10 developed countries during the interwar period. Fear of worker militancy and a possible revolution can explain a substantial part of the increase in stock market volatility during the Great Depression. Keywords: Stock price volatility, political uncertainty, worker militancy, Great Depression. JEL Classification: G12, G14, G18, E66, N22, N24, N12, N14.


Stock Market Jumps and Uncertainty Shocks During the Great Depression

Stock Market Jumps and Uncertainty Shocks During the Great Depression
Author: Gabriel Mathy
Publisher:
Total Pages: 38
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

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Stock market volatility was extremely high during the Great Depression relative to any other period in American history. At the same time, large negative and positive discontinuous jumps in stock returns can be detected using the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2004) test for jumps in financial time-series. These jumps coincided with periods when stock volatility was high as the arrival of new information about the uncertain future drove both the record stock volatility and the record jumps in stock returns. A timeline of the Depression is outlined, with important events that drove uncertainty highlighted such as the collapse of the banking system, policy changes, the breakdown of the gold standard, monetary policy uncertainty, and war jitters.


The Role of the 1929 Stock Market Crash and other Factors that caused the Great Depression

The Role of the 1929 Stock Market Crash and other Factors that caused the Great Depression
Author: Dennis Sauert
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Total Pages: 68
Release: 2010-09-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3640709853

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Bachelor Thesis from the year 2009 in the subject Economics - History, grade: 1.3, Berlin School of Economics and Law, language: English, abstract: Within macroeconomics, economists agree that there were a number of contributing factors that led to the Great Depression. However, most of the discussion is about what was responsible for the depth and the length of this economic event. In the four years starting in the summer of 1929 until 1933,financial markets and institutions, labor markets as well as international currency and goods markets had stopped functioning and it seemed that economic and monetary policy remained helpless in that period. To analyze the Great Depression, Friedman and Schwartz supply one of the most critical but popular explanations. They focus on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System (hereinafter Fed) of the United States(hereinafter U.S.) since the Fed allowed a severe contraction in money supply in the period of 1929 – 1933, even though the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 delegated monetary actions by the Fed to avoid such monetary contraction. Friedman and Schwartz claim that the severeness of monetary contraction resulted from the Fed’s passive response to the banking panics in the 1930s when the public increased sharply its demand for currency. However, they admit that the Fed conducted a successful policy during most of the 1920s until a “shift in power within the system and the lack of understanding and experience of those individuals to whom the power shifted” occurred. Herein, they point to the death of Benjamin Strong the Governor of the New York Federal Reserve Bank who had the sagacity and leadership to take measures that would have avoided the Great Depression. Thus, they maintain that monetary contraction in the period of 1929 – 1933 induced the Great Depression due to a misguided policy by the Fed that was eventually in authority for the downturn in economic activity.


Stock Volatility and the Great Depression

Stock Volatility and the Great Depression
Author: S. Gustavo S. Cortes
Publisher:
Total Pages: 41
Release: 2017
Genre: Building permits
ISBN:

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Stock volatility during the Great Depression was two to three times higher than any other period in American financial history. The period has been labelled a "volatility puzzle" because scholars have been unable to provide a convincing explanation for the dramatic rise in stock volatility (Schwert, 1989). We investigate the volatility puzzle during the period 1928-1938 using a new series of building permits, a forward-looking measure of economic activity. Our results suggest that the largest stock volatility spike in American history can be predicted by an increase in the volatility of building permit growth. Markets appear to have factored in a forthcoming economic disaster.


The Stock Market Crash of 1929

The Stock Market Crash of 1929
Author: Mary Gow
Publisher: Enslow Publishing
Total Pages: 52
Release: 2003
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780766021112

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The day of October 24, 1929, will be forever remembered as "Black Thursday." On this day, stock prices plummeted. By the following Tuesday, Wall Street had suffered the worst stock market crash in history, changing the lives of millions of Americans. Fortunes and life savings were wiped out. People's confidence in business was shattered. After the crash, weaknesses that were already present in the U. S. economy raced out of control. Unemployment soared. Factories and stores closed. Poverty and despair settled over millions of Americans. The stock market crash of 1929 marked the end of a decade of prosperity as the nation found itself swept into the Great Depression. In The Stock Market Crash of 1929: Dawn of the Great Depression, author Mary Gow captures this important period in U. S. history through firsthand accounts and quotes. Also examined are subsequent economic crises, up to the present day. Book jacket.


Stock Volatility During the Recent Financial Crisis

Stock Volatility During the Recent Financial Crisis
Author: G. William Schwert
Publisher:
Total Pages: 15
Release: 2011
Genre: Economics
ISBN:

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Abstract: This paper uses monthly returns from 1802-2010, daily returns from 1885-2010, and intraday returns from 1982-2010 in the United States to show how stock volatility has changed over time. It also uses various measures of volatility implied by option prices to infer what the market was expecting to happen in the months following the financial crisis in late 2008. This episode was associated with historically high levels of stock market volatility, particularly among financial sector stocks, but the market did not expect volatility to remain high for long and it did not. This is in sharp contrast to the prolonged periods of high volatility during the Great Depression. Similar analysis of stock volatility in the United Kingdom and Japan reinforces the notion that the volatility seen in the 2008 crisis was relatively short-lived. While there is a link between stock volatility and real economic activity, such as unemployment rates, it can be misleading


Stock Volatility During the Recent Financial Crisis

Stock Volatility During the Recent Financial Crisis
Author: G. William Schwert
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2011
Genre: Economics
ISBN:

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This paper uses monthly returns from 1802-2010, daily returns from 1885-2010, and intraday returns from 1982-2010 in the United States to show how stock volatility has changed over time. It also uses various measures of volatility implied by option prices to infer what the market was expecting to happen in the months following the financial crisis in late 2008. This episode was associated with historically high levels of stock market volatility, particularly among financial sector stocks, but the market did not expect volatility to remain high for long and it did not. This is in sharp contrast to the prolonged periods of high volatility during the Great Depression. Similar analysis of stock volatility in the United Kingdom and Japan reinforces the notion that the volatility seen in the 2008 crisis was relatively short-lived. While there is a link between stock volatility and real economic activity, such as unemployment rates, it can be misleading.