Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Why Cant You Just Give Me The Number An Executives Guide To Using Probabilistic Thinking To Manage Risk And To Make Better Decisions PDF full book. Access full book title Why Cant You Just Give Me The Number An Executives Guide To Using Probabilistic Thinking To Manage Risk And To Make Better Decisions.
| Author | : Patrick Leach |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 197 |
| Release | : 2006 |
| Genre | : Business |
| ISBN | : 9780964793859 |
Decision making 101 for executives. A solid overview of the key decision analysis concepts sprinkled with pearls of wisdom and wry humor. Explains the language of risk, uncertainty, and decision making.
| Author | : Patrick Leach |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 240 |
| Release | : 2014-06-15 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9781941075012 |
| Author | : Planning Planet |
| Publisher | : GCATI |
| Total Pages | : 110 |
| Release | : |
| Genre | : Architecture |
| ISBN | : 1913805069 |
The Managing Risk and Opportunity Module is to introduce the tools, techniques and methodologies associated with risk and opportunity, that have been identified as being “best tested and proven” practices and which have been found to work on “most projects, most of the time”; provide a logical or rational sequence showing when those tools or techniques would normally and customarily be used and in selected instances, show how to use those tools/techniques and/or where to find additional information on how to use or apply them.
| Author | : Ruth Murray-Webster |
| Publisher | : CRC Press |
| Total Pages | : 124 |
| Release | : 2021-06-11 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1000393259 |
This book offers a practical insight to leaders who need to make good decisions in risky and important situations. The authors describe a process for making risk-intelligent decisions, explaining complex ideas simply, and mapping a route through the myriad interrelated influences when groups make decisions that matter. The approach puts the decision maker—you—at the center and explains how you can think and act differently to make better decisions more of the time. The book shows how to Determine the appropriate level of risk Make decisions in uncertain and turbulent conditions Understand how risks are perceived to identify them accurately Develop new behaviors to improve decision-making Making Risky and Important Decisions: A Leader’s Guide builds on earlier ground-breaking publications from these two recognized thought leaders. Their first book together, Understanding and Managing Risk Attitude, brought together the language of risk and risk-taking with the language of emotional intelligence and emotional literacy. Managing Group Risk Attitude followed, and focused on decision-making groups, creating new insights and frameworks. Both books are positioned as specialist textbooks, despite their relevance to real-world situations. A Short Guide to Risk Appetite brought together the concepts of risk appetite and risk attitude into one place for the first time, cutting through confusing terminology and confused thinking to create a practical way of understanding "how much risk is too much risk." This latest installment from Ruth Murray-Webster and David Hillson takes the breadth of their previous work, adds new insights and thinking, and distills it into a highly usable guide for hard-pressed leaders.
| Author | : Charles Yoe |
| Publisher | : CRC Press |
| Total Pages | : 586 |
| Release | : 2011-09-15 |
| Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
| ISBN | : 1439857490 |
In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know—and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don’t know. Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis in a straightforward, conceptual manner that is consistent with the risk models of all communities of practice. It answers the questions "what is risk analysis?" and "how do I do this?" Distilling the common principles of the many risk tribes and dialects into serviceable definitions and narratives, the book provides a foundation for the practice of risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty for professionals from all walks of life. In the first part of the book, readers learn the language, models, and concepts of risk analysis and its three component tasks—risk management, assessment, and communication. The second part of the book supplies the tools, techniques, and methodologies to help readers apply the principles. From problem identification and brainstorming to model building and choosing a probability distribution, the author walks readers through the how-to of risk assessment. Addressing the critical task of risk communication, he explains how to present the results of assessments and how to develop effective messages. The book’s simple and straightforward style—based on the author’s decades of experience as a risk analyst, trainer, and educator—strips away the mysterious aura that often accompanies risk analysis. It describes the principles in a manner that empowers readers to begin the practice of risk analysis, to better understand and use the models and practice of their individual fields, and to gain access to the rich and sophisticated professional literature on risk analysis. Additional exercises as well as a free student version of the Palisade Corporation DecisionTools® Suite software and files used in the preparation of this book are available for download.
| Author | : Robert D. Brown III |
| Publisher | : Apress |
| Total Pages | : 287 |
| Release | : 2018-03-01 |
| Genre | : Computers |
| ISBN | : 1484234952 |
This tutorial teaches you how to use the statistical programming language R to develop a business case simulation and analysis. It presents a methodology for conducting business case analysis that minimizes decision delay by focusing stakeholders on what matters most and suggests pathways for minimizing the risk in strategic and capital allocation decisions. Business case analysis, often conducted in spreadsheets, exposes decision makers to additional risks that arise just from the use of the spreadsheet environment. R has become one of the most widely used tools for reproducible quantitative analysis, and analysts fluent in this language are in high demand. The R language, traditionally used for statistical analysis, provides a more explicit, flexible, and extensible environment than spreadsheets for conducting business case analysis. The main tutorial follows the case in which a chemical manufacturing company considers constructing a chemical reactor and production facility to bring a new compound to market. There are numerous uncertainties and risks involved, including the possibility that a competitor brings a similar product online. The company must determine the value of making the decision to move forward and where they might prioritize their attention to make a more informed and robust decision. While the example used is a chemical company, the analysis structure it presents can be applied to just about any business decision, from IT projects to new product development to commercial real estate. The supporting tutorials include the perspective of the founder of a professional service firm who wants to grow his business and a member of a strategic planning group in a biomedical device company who wants to know how much to budget in order to refine the quality of information about critical uncertainties that might affect the value of a chosen product development pathway. What You’ll Learn Set up a business case abstraction in an influence diagram to communicate the essence of the problem to other stakeholders Model the inherent uncertainties in the problem with Monte Carlo simulation using the R language Communicate the results graphically Draw appropriate insights from the results Develop creative decision strategies for thorough opportunity cost analysis Calculate the value of information on critical uncertainties between competing decision strategies to set the budget for deeper data analysis Construct appropriate information to satisfy the parameters for the Monte Carlo simulation when little or no empirical data are available Who This Book Is For Financial analysts, data practitioners, and risk/business professionals; also appropriate for graduate level finance, business, or data science students
| Author | : Hussein K. Abdel-Aal |
| Publisher | : CRC Press |
| Total Pages | : 488 |
| Release | : 2013-12-14 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 1466506660 |
This book explains how to apply economic analysis to the evaluation of engineering challenges in the petroleum industry. Discussion progresses from an introduction to the industry, through principles and techniques of engineering economics, to the application of economic methods. Packed with real-world examples and case studies demonstrating how to calculate rate of return, discounted cash flow, payout period, and more, Petroleum Economics and Engineering, Third Edition assists petroleum engineers, chemical engineers, production workers, management, and executives in sound economic decision-making regarding the design, manufacture, and operation of oil and gas plants, equipment, and processes. The fully revised third edition is updated to reflect key advancements in petroleum technology and expanded to include chapters on middle stream operations, known as surface petroleum operations (SPO), and natural gas processing and fractionation. By looking globally at the hydrocarbon industry, the improved text offers the reader a more complete picture of the petroleum sector, which includes the global processes of exploration, production, refining, and transportation.
| Author | : Clinton W. Brownley |
| Publisher | : Business Expert Press |
| Total Pages | : 167 |
| Release | : 2013-03-28 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1606494538 |
Whether managing strategy, operations or products, knowing how to make the best decision in a complex, uncertain business environment is difficult. You might be faced with multiple, competing objectives, which means making trade-offs. To complicate matters, any uncertainty makes it hard to explicitly understand how different objectives will impact potential outcomes. This book will help you face these problems. It provides a decision analysis framework implemented as a simple spreadsheet tool. This multi-objective decision analysis framework helps you to measure trade-offs among objectives and incorporate uncertainties and risk preferences. With this book, you will be able to identify what information is needed to make a decision, define how that information should be combined, and, finally, provide quantifiable evidence to clearly communicate and justify the decision. The process involves minimal overhead and is perfect for busy professionals who need a simple, structured process for making, tracking, and communicating decisions. This process makes decision making more efficient by focusing only on information and factors that are well-defined, measureable, and relevant to the decision at hand. The framework requires clear characterization of a decision, ensuring that it can be traced and is consistent with the intended objectives and organizational values. Using this structured decision-making framework, anyone can consistently make better decisions to gain competitive and strategic advantage.
| Author | : Hussein K. Abdel-Aal |
| Publisher | : CRC Press |
| Total Pages | : 385 |
| Release | : 2021-02-25 |
| Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
| ISBN | : 1000346404 |
Engineers seek solutions to problems, and the economic viability of each potential solution is normally considered along with the technical merits. This is typically true for the petroleum sector, which includes the global processes of exploration, production, refining, and transportation. Decisions on an investment in any oil or gas field development are made on the basis of its value, which is judged by a combination of a number of economic indicators. Economic Analysis of Oil and Gas Engineering Operations focuses on economic treatment of petroleum engineering operations and serves as a helpful resource for making practical and profitable decisions in oil and gas field development. Reflects major changes over the past decade or so in the oil and gas industry Provides thorough coverage of the use of economic analysis techniques in decision-making in petroleum-related projects Features real-world cases and applications of economic analysis of various engineering problems encountered in petroleum operations Includes principles applicable to other engineering disciplines This work will be of value to practicing engineers and industry professionals, managers, and executives working in the petroleum industry who have the responsibility of planning and decision-making, as well as advanced students in petroleum and chemical engineering studying engineering economics, petroleum economics and policy, project evaluation, and plant design.
| Author | : John E. Silvia |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 382 |
| Release | : 2017-01-04 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1119349834 |
Reality-based modeling for today's unique economic recovery Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era presents a more realistic approach to modeling, using direct statistical applications to address the characteristics and trends central to current market behaviors. This book's unique focus on the reality of today's markets makes it an invaluable resource for students and practitioners seeking a comprehensive guide to more accurate forecasting. While most books treat the economy as if it were in a vacuum, building models around idealized or perception-biased behaviors, this book deals with the economy as it currently stands—in a state of recovery, limited by financial constraints, imperfect information, and lags and disparities in price movements. The authors identify how these characteristics impact various markets' behaviors, and quantify those behaviors using SAS as the primary statistical tool. Today's economy bears a number of unique attributes that usual modeling methods fail to consider. This book describes how to approach modeling based on real-world, observable data in order to make better-informed decisions in today's markets. Discover the three economic characteristics with the greatest impact on various markets Create economic models that mirror the current post-recession reality Adopt statistical methods that identify and adapt to structural breaks and lags Factor real-world imperfections into modeling for more accurate forecasting The past few years have shown a clear demarcation between policymakers' forecasts and actual outcomes. As the dust settles on the Great Recession, after-effects linger—and impact our current recovery in ways that diverge from past experience and theoretical expectations. Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era provides comprehensive guidance grounded in reality for today's economic decision-makers.
