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The Puzzle of Brazil's High Interest Rates

The Puzzle of Brazil's High Interest Rates
Author: Mr.Alex Segura-Ubiergo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 20
Release: 2012-02-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1463948263

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This paper highlights that real interest rates in Brazil have declined substantially over time, but are still well above the average of emerging market inflation targeting regimes. The adoption of an inflation-targeting regime and better economic fundamentals (reduction in inflation volatility and improvements in the fiscal and external positions) has helped Brazil sustain significantly lower real interest rates than in the past. Going forward, the paper shows that Brazil can converge towards lower equilibrium real interest rates if domestic savings increase to the level of other emerging market countries. The effect is particularly pronounced if the increase in domestic savings is achieved through higher levels of public savings. Still, econometric results suggest that, controlling for everything else in the model, real interest rates in Brazil are about two full percentage points higher than in other countries in the sample, suggesting that there are still Brazil-specific factors that have not been captured by the empirical analysis. Some of these factors may include credit market segmentation and inflation inertia generated by still pervasive indexation practices.


Is Brazil Different? Risk, Dollarization, and Interest Rates in Emerging Markets

Is Brazil Different? Risk, Dollarization, and Interest Rates in Emerging Markets
Author: Edmar L. Bacha
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 34
Release: 2007-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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We investigate the role of financial dollarization in the determination of real interest rates in emerging economies. In a simple analytical model, we show that a strategy of "dedollarizing" the economy, if it fails to address fundamental macroeconomic risks, leads to higher domestic real interest rates. We confirm this prediction in an empirical model, but find that the effect is small after controlling for the risks of dilution and default. Brazil provides a natural case study given its low degree of financial dollarization and very high real interest rates. The estimated model is unable to explain the high interest rate levels in the aftermath of Brazil's 1994 inflation stabilization. However, since the adoption in 1999 of inflation targeting and floating exchange rates, Brazil's real interest rates are gradually converging to the model's predicted values. The estimation also shows that further drops in Brazil's real interest rates could be achieved more effectively through improvements in fundamentals that lead to investment-grade status rather than through financial dollarization.


Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting

Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting
Author: Olivier J. Blanchard
Publisher:
Total Pages: 62
Release: 2004
Genre: Fiscal policy
ISBN:

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"A standard proposition in open-economy macroeconomics is that a central-bank-engineered increase in the real interest rate makes domestic government debt more attractive and leads to a real appreciation. If, however, the increase in the real interest rate also increases the probability of default on the debt, the effect may be instead to make domestic government debt less attractive, and to lead to a real depreciation. That outcome is more likely the higher the initial level of debt, the higher the proportion of foreign-currency-denominated debt, and the higher the price of risk. Under that outcome, inflation targeting can clearly have perverse effects: An increase in the real interest in response to higher inflation leads to a real depreciation. The real depreciation leads in turn to a further increase in inflation. In this case, fiscal policy, not monetary policy, is the right instrument to decrease inflation. This paper argues that this is the situation the Brazilian economy found itself in in 2002 and 2003. It presents a model of the interaction between the interest rate, the exchange rate, and the probability of default, in a high-debt high-risk-aversion economy such as Brazil during that period. It then estimates the model, using Brazilian data. It concludes that, in 2002, the level and the composition of public debt in Brazil, and the general level of risk aversion in world financial markets, were indeed such as to imply perverse effects of the interest rate on the exchange rate and on inflation"--NBER website


Is Brazil Different? Risk, Dollarization, and Interest Rates in Emerging Markets

Is Brazil Different? Risk, Dollarization, and Interest Rates in Emerging Markets
Author: Fernando M. Goncalves
Publisher:
Total Pages: 27
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

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We investigate the role of financial dollarization in the determination of real interest rates in emerging economies. In a simple analytical model, we show that a strategy of de-dollarizing the economy, if it fails to address fundamental macroeconomic risks, leads to higher domestic real interest rates. We confirm this prediction in an empirical model, but find that the effect is small after controlling for the risks of dilution and default. Brazil provides a natural case study given its low degree of financial dollarization and very high real interest rates. The estimated model is unable to explain the high interest rate levels in the aftermath of Brazil's 1994 inflation stabilization. However, since the adoption in 1999 of inflation targeting and floating exchange rates, Brazil's real interest rates are gradually converging to the model's predicted values. The estimation also shows that further drops in Brazil's real interest rates could be achieved more effectively through improvements in fundamentals that lead to investment-grade status rather than through financial dollarization.


A Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America, 1960–2017

A Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America, 1960–2017
Author: Timothy J. Kehoe
Publisher: U of Minnesota Press
Total Pages: 643
Release: 2022-01-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1452965846

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A major, new, and comprehensive look at six decades of macroeconomic policies across the region What went wrong with the economic development of Latin America over the past half-century? Along with periods of poor economic performance, the region’s countries have been plagued by a wide variety of economic crises. This major new work brings together dozens of leading economists to explore the economic performance of the ten largest countries in South America and of Mexico. Together they advance the fundamental hypothesis that, despite different manifestations, these crises all have been the result of poorly designed or poorly implemented fiscal and monetary policies. Each country is treated in its own section of the book, with a lead chapter presenting a comprehensive database of the country’s fiscal, monetary, and economic data from 1960 to 2017. The chapters are drawn from one-day academic conferences—hosted in all but one case, in the focus country—with participants including noted economists and former leading policy makers. Cowritten with Nobel Prize winner Thomas J. Sargent, the editors’ introduction provides a conceptual framework for analyzing fiscal and monetary policy in countries around the world, particularly those less developed. A final chapter draws conclusions and suggests directions for further research. A vital resource for advanced undergraduate and graduate students of economics and for economic researchers and policy makers, A Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America, 1960–2017 goes further than any book in stressing both the singularities and the similarities of the economic histories of Latin America’s largest countries. Contributors: Mark Aguiar, Princeton U; Fernando Alvarez, U of Chicago; Manuel Amador, U of Minnesota; Joao Ayres, Inter-American Development Bank; Saki Bigio, UCLA; Luigi Bocola, Stanford U; Francisco J. Buera, Washington U, St. Louis; Guillermo Calvo, Columbia U; Rodrigo Caputo, U of Santiago; Roberto Chang, Rutgers U; Carlos Javier Charotti, Central Bank of Paraguay; Simón Cueva, TNK Economics; Julián P. Díaz, Loyola U Chicago; Sebastian Edwards, UCLA; Carlos Esquivel, Rutgers U; Eduardo Fernández Arias, Peking U; Carlos Fernández Valdovinos (former Central Bank of Paraguay); Arturo José Galindo, Banco de la República, Colombia; Márcio Garcia, PUC-Rio; Felipe González Soley, U of Southampton; Diogo Guillen, PUC-Rio; Lars Peter Hansen, U of Chicago; Patrick Kehoe, Stanford U; Carlos Gustavo Machicado Salas, Bolivian Catholic U; Joaquín Marandino, U Torcuato Di Tella; Alberto Martin, U Pompeu Fabra; Cesar Martinelli, George Mason U; Felipe Meza, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México; Pablo Andrés Neumeyer, U Torcuato Di Tella; Gabriel Oddone, U de la República; Daniel Osorio, Banco de la República; José Peres Cajías, U of Barcelona; David Perez-Reyna, U de los Andes; Fabrizio Perri, Minneapolis Fed; Andrew Powell, Inter-American Development Bank; Diego Restuccia, U of Toronto; Diego Saravia, U de los Andes; Thomas J. Sargent, New York U; José A. Scheinkman, Columbia U; Teresa Ter-Minassian (formerly IMF); Marco Vega, Pontificia U Católica del Perú; Carlos Végh, Johns Hopkins U; François R. Velde, Chicago Fed; Alejandro Werner, IMF.


Monetary Policy in Brazil

Monetary Policy in Brazil
Author: Matthias Beer
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Total Pages: 17
Release: 2013-09-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3656495424

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Seminar paper from the year 2011 in the subject Economics - Case Scenarios, grade: 1.7, University of applied sciences, Munich, course: MBA, language: English, abstract: Executive Summary: Brazil is the largest country in South America with the highest population. Since 2003, Brazil has improved its macroeconomic stability and built-up foreign re-serves. They have further reduced debt and managed to keep inflation rates under control while committing to fiscal responsibilities. Nevertheless, back in history, from the 1960s to 1990s the country was struggling with continuously high inflation rates until Fernando Henrique Cardoso, the minister of finance and later president of Brazil, introduced the “Plano Real” 1st of March 1994. The assignment describes the financial history of Brazil between the 1960s and 2000 in brief by giving some numbers about inflation rates and highlighting po-tential reasons for the long period and high rates. The work describes further on the stabilization efforts in the 1990s in Brazil by introducing the “Plano Real”, explaining the idea of introducing the Unidade Real de Valor, a parallel, virtual and relative currency to the Cruzeiro Real. In the third chapter the economical relation between money supply and inflation is explained by the quantity theory of money and an alternative to express inflation, the quantity equation, is given. The last part of the essay explains the classical dichotomy in economics in gen-eral and analyses the economical data of Brazil for the 1990s in this regards. The assignment is concluded by the ITM checklist.


Investment in Brazil: From Crisis to Recovery

Investment in Brazil: From Crisis to Recovery
Author: Mr.Ivo Krznar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 16
Release: 2018-01-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484337417

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While Brazil’s deep recession has been broad based, it has been marked by a particularly large fall in investment. Real investment fell by around 30 percent between the beginning of 2014 and the beginning of 2017. This paper finds that a variety of factors contributed to the investment decline, including a deterioration in Brazil’s medium-term growth prospects, rising real interest rates, falling terms of trade, rising uncertainty related to economic policy, rising levels of corporate leverage and lower cash flow. Some of the factors that have weighed on investment over recent years have begun to normalize providing some impetus for a recovery. However, still-high levels of corporate leverage and the prospect of continued uncertainty related to economic policy settings suggest a turnaround in investment is likely to be subdued.


Macroeconomic Crises, Policies, and Growth in Brazil, 1964-90

Macroeconomic Crises, Policies, and Growth in Brazil, 1964-90
Author: Donald V. Coes
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 260
Release: 1995
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780821322994

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World Bank Technical Paper No. 269. Water problems are emerging as the most compelling set of issues facing agricultural production in the 1990s. To address the policy challenges posed by this dilemma, this study focuses on the experience of the European Community (now the European Union, or EU) where high levels of nitrate, phosphate, and pesticides in surface and groundwater are a source of increasing concern. The author examines agricultural and water quality-related environmental policies at the EU and national levels, and discusses new policy approaches that attempt to integrate agricultural and environmental considerations. This study thus provides insights into policy options for controlling agricultural water pollution that might be useful in other parts of the world.