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What Moves Stock Prices? Evidence that UK Stock Prices Deviate from Fundamentals

What Moves Stock Prices? Evidence that UK Stock Prices Deviate from Fundamentals
Author: David E. Allen
Publisher:
Total Pages: 39
Release: 2000
Genre:
ISBN:

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This article examines the deviation of the UK market index from market fundamentals implied by the simple dividend discount model and identifies other components that also affect price movements. The components are classified as permanent, temporary, excess stock returns and non-fundamental innovations in terms of a multivariate moving average model (Lee (1998)). We find that time varying discounted rates play an active role in explaining price deviations.


Stock Prices and Monetary Policy

Stock Prices and Monetary Policy
Author: Paul De Grauwe
Publisher: CEPS
Total Pages: 22
Release: 2008
Genre: Monetary policy
ISBN: 929079819X

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The question of whether central banks should target stock prices so as to prevent bubbles and crashes from occurring has been hotly debated. This paper analyses this question using a behavioural macroeconomic model. This model generates bubbles and crashes. It analyses how 'leaning against the wind' strategies, which aim to reduce the volatility of stock prices, can help in reducing volatility of output and inflation. We find that such policies can be effective in reducing macroeconomic volatility, thereby improving the trade-off between output and inflation variability. The strength of this result, however, depends on the degree of credibility of the inflation-targeting regime. In the absence of such credibility, policies aiming at stabilising stock prices do not stabilise output and inflation.


Who Moves Stock Prices? Monthly Evidence

Who Moves Stock Prices? Monthly Evidence
Author: Bernt Arne Ødegaard
Publisher:
Total Pages: 27
Release: 2010
Genre:
ISBN:

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Existing evidence using US data show a simultaneous covariability between a stock's price and quarterly flows into and out of the stock by institutional investors. In this paper we use data on monthly changes in holdings by all investor groups at the Oslo Stock Exchange to show that such quarterly effects are concentrated within a month. We find a positive relation between monthly net flows into a stock by institutions and foreigners and the stock's return. We find no evidence of any effects the next month, providing evidence against the hypothesis that quarterly results are due to within-quarter feedback. Such feedback effects must be of less than one month duration. We show that offsetting net inflows by mutual funds and foreigners are net outflows by individual and nonfinancial investors. The interesting question is which of these groups are active in pushing prices. While we can not empirically distinguish which of the various investor groups is reacting, we argue that the most reasonable story is that institutions and foreign investors are the active parties, since the prices move in the direction of these groups' trades. The lack of next-month feedback (price reversals) is consistent with prices moving toward fundamentals.


Share Price Deviations from Fundamentals

Share Price Deviations from Fundamentals
Author: Elpiniky Catrakilis-Wagner
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

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Financial markets play a vital role in the allocation of funds for investment at all levels of economic activity. Therefore, an understanding of the functioning of financial markets is a critical business skill. Yet, history proves financial markets to be erratic creatures. The purpose of this research report was to determine whether stock prices always reflect fundamentals or whether they display persistent deviations from their long-run equilibrium fundamental values due to irrational investor behaviour. The research was limited to earnings and dividends in terms of fundamentals and under- and overreaction in terms of investor behaviour. A two-regime non-linear dynamic model was applied to quarterly data of stock price, dividends and earnings for companies listed on the JSE Securities Exchange (the JSE) from 1980 to 2007. The results of the study demonstrate that although the South African equity market is not totally extreme, it contains quite substantial short-term noise. This outcome provides a compelling case for value investing. Against this backdrop, recommendations were made to individual investors and corporate managers.


Valuation

Valuation
Author: McKinsey & Company Inc.
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 860
Release: 2010-07-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0470889934

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The number one guide to corporate valuation is back and better than ever Thoroughly revised and expanded to reflect business conditions in today's volatile global economy, Valuation, Fifth Edition continues the tradition of its bestselling predecessors by providing up-to-date insights and practical advice on how to create, manage, and measure the value of an organization. Along with all new case studies that illustrate how valuation techniques and principles are applied in real-world situations, this comprehensive guide has been updated to reflect new developments in corporate finance, changes in accounting rules, and an enhanced global perspective. Valuation, Fifth Edition is filled with expert guidance that managers at all levels, investors, and students can use to enhance their understanding of this important discipline. Contains strategies for multi-business valuation and valuation for corporate restructuring, mergers, and acquisitions Addresses how you can interpret the results of a valuation in light of a company's competitive situation Also available: a book plus CD-ROM package (978-0-470-42469-8) as well as a stand-alone CD-ROM (978-0-470-42457-7) containing an interactive valuation DCF model Valuation, Fifth Edition stands alone in this field with its reputation of quality and consistency. If you want to hone your valuation skills today and improve them for years to come, look no further than this book.


A Random Walk Down Wall Street: The Time-Tested Strategy for Successful Investing (Ninth Edition)

A Random Walk Down Wall Street: The Time-Tested Strategy for Successful Investing (Ninth Edition)
Author: Burton G. Malkiel
Publisher: W. W. Norton & Company
Total Pages: 454
Release: 2007-12-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0393330338

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Updated with a new chapter that draws on behavioral finance, the field that studies the psychology of investment decisions, the bestselling guide to investing evaluates the full range of financial opportunities.


Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets

Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets
Author: Wing-Keung Wong
Publisher: Mdpi AG
Total Pages: 232
Release: 2022-02-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9783036530802

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The Efficient Market Hypothesis believes that it is impossible for an investor to outperform the market because all available information is already built into stock prices. However, some anomalies could persist in stock markets while some other anomalies could appear, disappear and re-appear again without any warning. A Special Issue on "Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets" will be devoted to advancements in the theoretical development of market efficiency and anomaly in the Stock Market, as well as applications in Stock Market efficiency and anomalies.


The Use of Technical and Fundamental Analysis in the Stock Market in Emerging and Developed Economies

The Use of Technical and Fundamental Analysis in the Stock Market in Emerging and Developed Economies
Author: Naveen B. Kumar
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
Total Pages: 224
Release: 2015-09-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 178560404X

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This book gives a scientific and systematic approach to trading in developing stock markets. As professional traders do not trade purely on the basis of economic fundamentals, but also take into account market movements from other factors, knowledge of technical analysis is important to anyone who would participate successfully in the stock market.