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Author | : Mr.Ronald MacDonald |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 54 |
Release | : 1997-02-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1451921675 |
Download What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Long and Short of it Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This paper presents a reduced-form model of the real exchange rate. Using multilateral cointegration methods, the model is implemented for the real effective exchange rates of the dollar, the mark, and the yen, over the period 1974-1993. In contrast to much other research using real exchange rates, there is evidence of significant and sensible long-run relationships for a simplified version as well as for the full version of the model. The estimated long-run relationships are used to produce dynamic equations, which outperform a random walk and produce sensible dynamic patterns in the context of an impulse response analysis.
Author | : Mr.Hamid Faruqee |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 40 |
Release | : 1994-08-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1451851359 |
Download Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This paper examines the long-run determinants of the real exchange rate from a stock-flow perspective. The empirical analysis estimates a long-run relationship between the real exchange rate, net foreign assets and other factors affecting trade flows. Using postwar data for the United States and Japan, cointegration analysis supports the finding that the structural factors underlying each country’s net trade and net foreign asset positions determine the long-run path for the real value of the dollar and the yen. The empirical analysis also provides estimates for the underlying stochastic trend in each real exchange rate series.
Author | : Jerome L. Stein |
Publisher | : Oxford University Press |
Total Pages | : 276 |
Release | : 1997 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9780198293064 |
Download Fundamental Determinants of Exchange Rates Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
"This book greatly enhances our understanding of the behavior of real exchange rates. It provides an elegant model based on a solid theoretical foundation that links real exchange rates to their fundamental economic determinants and takes proper account of stock and flow considerations. The authors provide a masterful account of how changes in productivity and thrift affect the real exchange rate, and show that the long-run impact depends crucially on whether the change reflects the former fundamental (investment) or the latter (consumption). The empirical implementation uses state-of-the-art cointegration and error correction methodologies that are eminently well suited to capture the short-run adjustment of the real exchange rate to its medium- to long-run equilibrium value. The empirical results are extremely encouraging, as the economic fundamentals identified by the authors can explain a substantial part of the movement in the real exchange rate of a number of countries."--Peter Clark, International Monetary Fund
Author | : Jacob Frenkel |
Publisher | : Routledge |
Total Pages | : 389 |
Release | : 2013-07-18 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1135043493 |
Download The Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This book collects together the basic documents of an approach to the theory and policy of the balance of payments developed in the 1970s. The approach marked a return to the historical traditions of international monetary theory after some thirty years of departure from them – a departure occasioned by the international collapse of the 1930s, the Keynesian Revolution and a long period of war and post-war reconstruction in which the international monetary system was fragmented by exchange controls, currency inconvertibility and controls over international trade and capital movements.
Author | : Mr.Jun Nagayasu |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 34 |
Release | : 1998-06-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1451850859 |
Download Japanese Effective Exchange Rates and Determinants Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This paper empirically analyzes Japanese long-run exchange rates from several perspectives. Several exchange rate models are considered, including the purchasing power parity, the real interest differential model, and the hybrid models à la Hooper and Morton (1982). A notable feature of the latter models is that the current accounts are introduced as determinants of the exchange rates; one type of hybrid model uses the actual current account, and the other the optimal current account, which is calculated using the present value model suggested by Campbell and Shiller (1988). The paper finds that the long-run specification is sensitive to the specification of the model.
Author | : Falkmar Butgereit |
Publisher | : Diplomica Verlag |
Total Pages | : 120 |
Release | : 2010 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 383669543X |
Download Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Still after more than thirty years of free floating exchange rates, large parts of exchange rate dynamics remain a puzzle. As this book shows, much progress has been made in explaining exchange rate movements over longer horizons. It also shows, however, that short-run movements are far more challenging to explain. The book is based upon a variety of papers, many of them released recently. A key aspiration of the literature has always been not only to explain past exchange rate behavior but also to forecast out of sample and to compare it to the simple random walk outcome. Here some development has been made after Meese and Rogoff's (1983) truculent verdict of the performance of common exchange rate models. By means of empirical analysis and descriptive statistics this book further supports the established long-run relationships between exchange rates and fundamentals such as expected productivity growth, real GDP growth, domestic investment, interest rates, inflation, government spending, and current account balances. It finds that these fundamentals affect the exchange rate to varying degrees over time. Turning to short-term exchange rate dynamics, it turns out that a different set of forces is at play. The key to explaining short-run movements is to be found in an extensive micro-foundation that factors in a pronounced heterogeneity among market participants and information asymmetries, as well as the possibility of sudden shifts in sentiment, beliefs, and the degree of risk aversion. Promising results have been obtained by order-flow analysis and high frequency data. Also, the consideration of chartism and speculators facilitates understanding for otherwise puzzling exchange rate movements. The last attempt to tackle the understanding of exchange rate behavior is the use of frequency domain analysis and in particular spectral analysis which tries to track down any cyclical patterns in the various moments of time series. And as we shall see forex indeed incorpor
Author | : Camila Casas |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 62 |
Release | : 2017-11-22 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484330609 |
Download Dominant Currency Paradigm: A New Model for Small Open Economies Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Most trade is invoiced in very few currencies. Despite this, the Mundell-Fleming benchmark and its variants focus on pricing in the producer’s currency or in local currency. We model instead a ‘dominant currency paradigm’ for small open economies characterized by three features: pricing in a dominant currency; pricing complementarities, and imported input use in production. Under this paradigm: (a) the terms-of-trade is stable; (b) dominant currency exchange rate pass-through into export and import prices is high regardless of destination or origin of goods; (c) exchange rate pass-through of non-dominant currencies is small; (d) expenditure switching occurs mostly via imports, driven by the dollar exchange rate while exports respond weakly, if at all; (e) strengthening of the dominant currency relative to non-dominant ones can negatively impact global trade; (f) optimal monetary policy targets deviations from the law of one price arising from dominant currency fluctuations, in addition to the inflation and output gap. Using data from Colombia we document strong support for the dominant currency paradigm.
Author | : Robert Cumby |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 60 |
Release | : 1990 |
Genre | : Foreign exchange |
ISBN | : |
Download The Predictability of Real Exchange Rate Changes in the Short and Long Run Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Nominal exchange rates do not move to offset differences in inflation rates on a month to month, quarter to quarter, or even year to year basis, resulting in sizable real exchange rate changes. Are these changes predictable? We address this question in three ways. First, we describe a variety of tests of predictability and explain how the different tests are related. Next, we implement the tests for the U.S. dollar relative to four currencies and find statistically significant evidence that real exchange rate changes are predictable. Finally, we examine whether the predictability is of an economically interesting magnitude.
Author | : Mark P. Taylor |
Publisher | : Routledge |
Total Pages | : 227 |
Release | : 2013-09-13 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1317988205 |
Download Purchasing Power Parity and Real Exchange Rates Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The term Purchasing Power Parity may date from the early twentieth century, when it was coined by the Swedish economist Gustav Cassel, but the underlying concept had been enjoying varying degrees of success since its development in sixteenth century Spain. Even towards the end of the twentieth century, and especially since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates, PPP and the stability of real exchange rates continued to be the subject of academic debate. This volume brings together essays covering aspects of current thinking on Purchasing Power Parity, from the various ways in which to test for its existence, to its appearance in different economies around the world, to examinations of the explanations given when PPP does not appear to hold This book was published as a special issue of Applied Financial Economics. The academic editor of this journal is Mark P. Taylor.
Author | : David Bigman |
Publisher | : Cambridge, Mass. : Ballinger |
Total Pages | : 460 |
Release | : 1980 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : |
Download The Functioning of Floating Exchange Rates Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle