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Taming Uncertainty

Taming Uncertainty
Author: Ralph Hertwig
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 489
Release: 2019-08-13
Genre: Psychology
ISBN: 0262353148

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An examination of the cognitive tools that the mind uses to grapple with uncertainty in the real world. How do humans navigate uncertainty, continuously making near-effortless decisions and predictions even under conditions of imperfect knowledge, high complexity, and extreme time pressure? Taming Uncertainty argues that the human mind has developed tools to grapple with uncertainty. Unlike much previous scholarship in psychology and economics, this approach is rooted in what is known about what real minds can do. Rather than reducing the human response to uncertainty to an act of juggling probabilities, the authors propose that the human cognitive system has specific tools for dealing with different forms of uncertainty. They identify three types of tools: simple heuristics, tools for information search, and tools for harnessing the wisdom of others. This set of strategies for making predictions, inferences, and decisions constitute the mind's adaptive toolbox. The authors show how these three dimensions of human decision making are integrated and they argue that the toolbox, its cognitive foundation, and the environment are in constant flux and subject to developmental change. They demonstrate that each cognitive tool can be analyzed through the concept of ecological rationality—that is, the fit between specific tools and specific environments. Chapters deal with such specific instances of decision making as food choice architecture, intertemporal choice, financial uncertainty, pedestrian navigation, and adolescent behavior.


Stopping the Noise in Your Head

Stopping the Noise in Your Head
Author: Dr Reid Wilson
Publisher: Random House
Total Pages: 384
Release: 2016-08-11
Genre: Self-Help
ISBN: 1473550432

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'So many of us live with a constant soundtrack of worry. This brilliant new book knows exactly how to deal with it.’ Viv Groskop, The Pool We all know that worrying causes us to retreat, to avoid and to focus excessively on threat - so how do we stop it? Enter Dr Reid Wilson. Warm, engaging and remarkably entertaining, Stopping the Noise in Your Head proposes a ground-breaking approach to overcoming anxiety and worry and will help you to shut down the endless negative cycle of 'Will I... ? Should I... ? What if...?' voices for good. Using ground-breaking strategies and drawing on a range of sources - from fire-fighters and fitness instructors to Sir Isaac Newton and Muhammad Ali - Dr Reid Wilson will help you shift your perspective, step towards challenges and regain control of your life.


The Uncertainty Mindset

The Uncertainty Mindset
Author: Vaughn Tan
Publisher: Columbia University Press
Total Pages: 296
Release: 2020-07-28
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 0231551878

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Innovation is how businesses stay ahead of the competition and adapt to market conditions that change in unpredictable and uncertain ways. In the first decade of the twenty-first century, high-end cuisine underwent a profound transformation. Once an industry that prioritized consistency and reliability, it turned into one where constant change was a competitive necessity. A top restaurant’s reputation and success have become so closely bound up with its ability to innovate that a new organizational form, the culinary research and development team, has emerged. The best of these R&D teams continually expand the frontiers of food—they invent a constant stream of new dishes, new cooking processes and methods, and even new ways of experiencing food. How do they achieve this nonstop novelty? And what can culinary research and development teach us about how organizations innovate? Vaughn Tan opens up the black box of elite culinary R&D to provide essential insights. Drawing on years of unprecedented access to the best and most influential culinary R&D teams in the world, he reveals how they exemplify what he calls the uncertainty mindset. Such a mindset intentionally incorporates uncertainty into organization design rather than simply trying to reduce risk. It changes how organizations hire, set goals, and motivate team members and leads organizations to work in highly unconventional ways. A revelatory look at the R&D kitchen, The Uncertainty Mindset upends conventional wisdom about how to organize for innovation and offers practical insights for businesses trying to become innovative and adaptable.


The Certainty of Uncertainty

The Certainty of Uncertainty
Author: Mark Schaefer
Publisher: Wipf and Stock Publishers
Total Pages: 277
Release: 2018-08-23
Genre: Religion
ISBN: 1532653433

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The world is full of people who are very certain—in politics, in religion, in all manner of things. In addition, political, religious, and social organizations are marketing certainty as a cure all to all life’s problems. But is such certainty possible? Or even good? The Certainty of Uncertainty explores the question of certainty by looking at the reasons human beings crave certainty and the religious responses we frequently fashion to help meet that need. The book takes an in-depth view of religion, language, our senses, our science, and our world to explore the inescapable uncertainties they reveal. We find that the certainty we crave does not exist. As we reflect on the unavoidable uncertainties in our world, we come to understand that letting go of certainty is not only necessary, it’s beneficial. For, in embracing doubt and uncertainty, we find a more meaningful and courageous religious faith, a deeper encounter with mystery, and a way to build strong relationships across religious and philosophical lines. In The Certainty of Uncertainty, we see that embracing our belief systems with humility and uncertainty can be transformative for ourselves and for our world.


The Monkey Mind Workout for Uncertainty

The Monkey Mind Workout for Uncertainty
Author: Jennifer Shannon
Publisher: New Harbinger Publications
Total Pages: 206
Release: 2022-02-01
Genre: Self-Help
ISBN: 1684035902

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Outsmart your monkey mind and build the mental muscle it takes to face uncertainty with calm confidence! Do you lie awake at night worrying? Are you anxious about your own health and well-being? Do you stress about paying the bills, or wonder if you’ll be able to cover unexpected expenses? Do you obsess about politics or the state of the world in general? If the answer is “yes,” you are far from alone. In a world where the future is increasingly uncertain, it’s easy to wallow in what-ifs. But over time, anxious “chatter”—also known as your “monkey mind”—can get in the way of living a full and meaningful life. So, how can you quiet the monkey and stop feeling like you’re living in a constant state of emergency? In this fun, illustrated book, psychologist Jennifer Shannon presents a 30-day anxiety-busting workout to help you increase your mental fitness and overcome your fear of uncertainty. Each daily exercise encourages you to embrace uncertain situations, rather than avoiding or attempting to control them. The more you work out, the more you’ll develop and strengthen a positive, flexible mind-set, and prove to yourself that you can handle much more than you thought. You’ll also learn how to use everyday situations as opportunities to improve how you cope with uncertainty, reduce stress and anxiety, and be present in each moment. As you gradually change your behavior, you’ll notice positive changes in the way you think and feel, and begin to anticipate and process uncomfortable emotions without giving in to the monkey-mind chatter. It’s normal to worry about what will happen next—especially in our uncertain world. But by sticking with the workout in this book, you can transform your mind-set and go from stressed and worried to relaxed and confident!


Thrive

Thrive
Author: Meridith Elliott Powell, MBA, CSP
Publisher: Sound Wisdom
Total Pages: 222
Release: 2021-06-22
Genre: Self-Help
ISBN: 1640952837

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Thrive is the roadmap of how to grow your business and drive sales in highly shifting, constantly changing economic times. It is the story of those leaders and organizations that have seen consistent growth through several economic crises-companies that were founded in the late 1700’s to early 1900’s and they are still in business thriving today. In this book we share their stories, their struggles, and tell you exactly how they have not only overcome adversity, but thrived through it. Praise for the Book: “We live in a time when uncertainty is the order of the day. THRIVE is a must-read for all who strive to grow intellectually and to succeed through the opportunities an uncertain world offers.” —Ken Langone, Founder, Home Depot, American Billionaire and Philanthropist “Talk about the right book for the right time! What I liked most about THRIVE are the case studies of real companies and real people who weathered the storms and emerged more successful than before. THRIVE is both practical and inspirational. I’ve ordered copies for my entire team.” —Bill Cates, CSP, CPAE, Founder, The Cates Academy for Relationship Marketing, Author of Radical Relevance “In THRIVE, Meridith weaves in 250 years of business history to show how resilient businesses and people find opportunities in every situation. This is a must-read to gain ideas and perspective in a sea of change.” —Mary C. Kelly, PhD, CEO, Productive Leaders, Author of The Five Minute Leadership Guide “You do not merely read this book; you read, you think, you develop next steps. Meridith does a masterful job of detailing companies doing it right and then goes further by adding her insights to create a playbook of what you need to do. Perfect book for the time we’re in right now!” —Mark Hunter, CSP, “The Sales Hunter”, Author of A Mind For Sales “The only certainty in business is there will be times of great uncertainty. It’s how you react when your world—or the world—doesn’t go as planned that determines your future. Meridith studies how companies have thrived in their uncertain times to become global market leaders and shares the proven success strategies that you can implement in your business to do the same. If there was ever a time where our world needed this book, it’s now. Read it. Study it. And thrive!” —Sam Richter, CSP, CPAE, Hall of Fame Speaker, Bestselling Author, and Technology Entrepreneur


Surfing Uncertainty

Surfing Uncertainty
Author: Andy Clark
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Total Pages: 425
Release: 2016
Genre: Medical
ISBN: 0190217014

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This title brings together work on embodiment, action, and the predictive mind. At the core is the vision of human minds as prediction machines - devices that constantly try to stay one step ahead of the breaking waves of sensory stimulation, by actively predicting the incoming flow. In every situation we encounter, that complex prediction machinery is already buzzing, proactively trying to anticipate the sensory barrage. The book shows in detail how this strange but potent strategy of self-anticipation ushers perception, understanding, and imagination simultaneously onto the cognitive stage.


The Strong Amongst Us

The Strong Amongst Us
Author: J A Boulet
Publisher:
Total Pages: 300
Release: 2020-06-12
Genre: Fiction
ISBN: 9781777211219

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Wake Up Grateful

Wake Up Grateful
Author: Kristi Nelson
Publisher: Storey Publishing, LLC
Total Pages: 331
Release: 2023-10-03
Genre: Body, Mind & Spirit
ISBN: 1635866650

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This practical and inspiring program is filled with guiding principles, reflections, exercises, and meditations for making gratitude a daily practice, especially during uncertain and challenging times. In times of uncertainty and suffering, finding joy and gratefulness in daily life is challenging. Wake Up Grateful provides a practical and inspiring roadmap to making grateful living a daily practice, with guiding principles, reflective questions, affirmations, and exercises. Drawing from her own cancer experience along with her life work with The Network for Grateful Living, Kristi Nelson explores how to develop gratefulness as a way of being. She examines ten core areas where many people need support and guides readers in finding presence and perspective in these aspects of life, opening to greater possibilities, and uncovering the abundance and love that's possible in every moment. Winner: Gold Nautilus Book Award, Personal Growth


Radical Uncertainty

Radical Uncertainty
Author: Mervyn King
Publisher: Bridge Street Press
Total Pages: 560
Release: 2021-09-02
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780349143996

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