Valuation Of Development Land In Hong Kong PDF Download

This dissertation, "Empirical Testing of Real Options in the Hong Kong Residential Real Estate Market" by Huimin, Yao, 姚惠敏, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: Empirical Testing of Real Options in the Hong Kong Residential Real Estate Market Huimin YAO Department of Real Estate and Construction, The University of Hong Kong August 2005 Abstract Hong Kong has been using the leasehold system of land management rather than freehold since its colonial era. This system controlled and presently still controls use of leased land through leasehold conditions. Many leases granted decades ago thus require formal modifications to lease conditions to formalize proposed changes in land use; or to realize the actual present economic value of the land, usually following a land valuation process and payment to government of a "premium" intended to reflect the value of the land in its revised use, usually determined by standard discounted cash flow methodology. From a real options analysis perspective, such land use conversions and analysis of real options associated therewith are significantly more complex than typical stylized land development real options encountered in academic literature and research. There is thus considerable interest in obtaining empirical evidence of the performance of real options valuation in land development applications, where options associated with land development rights are substantially constrained due to regulatory influences. A review of institutional framework in Hong Kong demonstrates that developers essentially own only one type of flexibility in practice that follows typical real options analysis literature, i.e., time flexibility, while other flexibilities are rather constrained due to regulatory influence. The aim of this paper is to outline major factors in operationalizing academic real options research for practical application in a particular land market with significant regulatory constraints, and then test two hypotheses derived from real options literature using actual residential real estate development projects in Hong Kong which require leasehold land use conversions as data. The two hypotheses are: (1) there is a significant and positive difference between the land conversion premium calculated by option pricing theory and the land conversion premium calculated by the authorities (based on DCF principles); and (2) developers are expected to delay the development of land to the point predicted by the real options model. To address these two hypotheses, applied research methodology was adopted and regulatory documentation and case studies were identified to frame the design of the applied work to address institutional complexities, and to facilitate identification of critical lease covenants for real option pricing. The perpetual American call option pricing model was chosen for individual case analysis since multiple time extensions were allowed. It was demonstrated that hypothesis 1 was supported. It was further found that hypothesis 2 was also supported, which means that options were generally optimally exercised. The importance of this research is that it finds empirical support for real options theory in a sample of actual heterogeneous development projects under substantial regulatory constraints and also finds evidence for optimal exercise of real options. From a public policy perspective, these findings imply that the Hong Kong government has systematically undervalued development land in the lease modification cases. DOI: 10.5353/th_b3617334 Subjects: Real