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U.S. Dollar Currency Premium in Corporate Bonds

U.S. Dollar Currency Premium in Corporate Bonds
Author: John Caramichael
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 34
Release: 2021-07-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513579010

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We isolate a U.S. dollar currency premium by comparing corporate bonds issued in the dollar and the euro by firms o utside t he U .S. a nd e uro a rea. We make s everal empirical observations that dissect the perceived advantage of borrowing in the dollar. First, while the dollar dominates global debt issuance, borrowing costs in the dollar are more expensive without a currency hedge and about the same with a currency hedge when compared to the euro. This observed parity in currency-hedged corporate borrowing stands in contrast to the persistent deviation from covered interest parity in risk-free rates. Second, we observe a dollar safety premium in relative hedged borrowing costs, found in the subset of bonds with high credit ratings and short maturities, attributes similar to those of safe sovereigns. Finally, we find that firms flexibly adjust the currency mix of their debt issuance depending on the relative borrowing cost between dollar and euro debt. In sum, the disproportionate demand for U.S. dollar debt is reflected in higher issuance volumes that drive up the currency hedged dollar borrowing costs such that at the margin they equate to euro borrowing costs.


U.S. Dollar Risk Premiums and Capital Flows

U.S. Dollar Risk Premiums and Capital Flows
Author: Ravi Balakrishnan
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 36
Release: 2006-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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This paper sheds light on the attractiveness of U.S. assets by studying dollar risk premiums, calculated using Consensus exchange rate forecasts, and linking them to bilateral capital flows. The paper finds that the presence of negative dollar risk premiums (i.e. expectations of a dollar depreciation net of interest rate effects) amid record capital inflows could suggest that investors may favor U.S. assets for structural reasons. One possible explanation could be that the Asian crisis created a large pool of savings searching for relatively riskless investment opportunities, which were provided by deep, liquid, and innovative U.S. financial markets with robust investor protection. Moreover, the continued attractiveness of U.S. financial markets to European investors suggests that they offer a large array of assets, with different risk/return characteristics, that facilitate the structuring of diversified investment portfolios. Looking forward, this suggests that the allocative efficiency of U.S. financial markets could mitigate risks of a disorderly unwinding of global current account imbalances.


Covered Interest Parity Deviations: Macrofinancial Determinants

Covered Interest Parity Deviations: Macrofinancial Determinants
Author: Mr.Eugenio M Cerutti
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 36
Release: 2019-01-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484395212

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For about three decades until the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Covered Interest Parity (CIP) appeared to hold quite closely—even as a broad macroeconomic relationship applying to daily or weekly data. Not only have CIP deviations significantly increased since the GFC, but potential macrofinancial drivers of the variation in CIP deviations have also become significant. The variation in CIP deviations seems to be associated with multiple factors, not only regulatory changes. Most of these do not display a uniform importance across currency pairs and time, and some are associated with possible temporary considerations (such as asynchronous monetary policy cycles).


The Turning Tide: How Vulnerable are Asian Corporates?

The Turning Tide: How Vulnerable are Asian Corporates?
Author: Bo Jiang
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 47
Release: 2019-05-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498314023

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Using a new firm-level dataset with comprehensive information on Asian firms’ FX liabilities, we show that Asia’s nonfinancial corporate sector is vulnerable to a tightening of global financial conditions. Higher global interest rates and exchange rate depreciation increase the probability of default of Asian firms. A 30 percent currency depreciation is associated with a two-notch downgrade in the corporate credit rating (e.g., from A to BBB+), resulting in 7 percent of Asian firms falling into bankruptcy. But the impact is nonlinear—as the firms’ FX liability increases, the balance sheet channel of exchange rate offsets, then dominates, the competitiveness channel. The balance sheet channel offsets the competitiveness channel when the share of U.S. dollar debt is between 10 and 20 percent. We also find that currency depreciation increases firm-level investment on average, but for firms with the share of FX liabilities above 20 percent, investment contracts with depreciation.


German Bond Yields and Debt Supply: Is There a “Bund Premium”?

German Bond Yields and Debt Supply: Is There a “Bund Premium”?
Author: Anne-Charlotte Paret
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 34
Release: 2019-11-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513518321

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Are Bunds special? This paper estimates the “Bund premium” as the difference in convenience yields between other sovereign safe assets and German government bonds adjusted for sovereign credit risk, liquidity and swap market frictions. A higher premium suggests less substitutability of sovereign bonds. We document a rise in the “Bund premium” in the post-crisis period. We show that there is a negative relationship of the premium with the relative supply of German sovereign bonds, which is more pronounced for higher maturities and when risk aversion proxied by bond market volatility is high. Going forward, we expect German government debt supply to remain scarce, with important implications for the ECB’s monetary policy strategy.


Markets for Corporate Debt Securities

Markets for Corporate Debt Securities
Author: T. Todd Smith
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 88
Release: 1995-07-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451848870

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This paper surveys markets for corporate debt securities in the major industrial countries and the international markets. The discussion includes a comparison of the sizes of the markets for various products, as well as the key operational, institutional, and legal features of primary and secondary markets. Although there are some signs that debt markets may be emphasized in the future by some countries, it remains true that North American debt markets are the most active and liquid in the world. The international debt markets are, however, growing in importance. The paper also investigates some of the reasons for the underdevelopment of domestic bond markets and the consequences of firms shifting their debt financing needs from banks to securities markets.


Issuing International Sovereign Bonds

Issuing International Sovereign Bonds
Author: Mr.Mauro Mecagni
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 37
Release: 2014-06-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475523106

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This African Department Paper examines the rise in international sovereign bonds issued by African frontier economies and recommends policies for potential first-time issuers.


International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity

International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity
Author: International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 258
Release: 2015-01-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484350162

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This update of the guidelines published in 2001 sets forth the underlying framework for the Reserves Data Template and provides operational advice for its use. The updated version also includes three new appendices aimed at assisting member countries in reporting the required data.


Exploring the Role of Foreign Investors in Russia's Local Currency Government Bond (OFZ) Market

Exploring the Role of Foreign Investors in Russia's Local Currency Government Bond (OFZ) Market
Author: Yinqiu Lu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 37
Release: 2017-02-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475577583

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Local currency government bonds (OFZ bonds) are an important fixed-income instrument in Russia’s financial markets. In this paper, based on granular data, we explore the development of the OFZ bond market with a focus on foreign investors. As this fixed-income market has experienced a liberalization of the domestic trading and settlement infrastructure, and weathered several episodes of market stresses since the 2008–09 global financial crisis, the role of foreign investors can be observed along with these events. What we have found is that foreign investors had influenced the market before they became an important player and since then they have contributed to the development of the market while not necessarily destabilizing it in episodes of shocks.


Understanding Global Liquidity

Understanding Global Liquidity
Author: Sandra Eickmeier
Publisher:
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2013
Genre: International finance
ISBN:

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