Updating Expected Returns Based On Consensus Forecasts PDF Download
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Author | : John Crombez |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 29 |
Release | : 2001 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Download Updating Expected Returns Based on Consensus Forecasts Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Investor behavior can explain to some extent the stock market anomalies from a psychological viewpoint. Recent literature suggests a lot of models without testing predictability implied by the models and without a discussion of implications and limitations that are implied by the design. Mostly, these models are descriptive. In these designs, the question about relevant normative models is left aside. In this paper we propose a normative model that allows empirical testing of whether the way investors should behave given the information is useful in making judgments in financial markets. Contrary to most papers, we apply individual priors to form a judgment about the future price change of each asset at each point in time. These priors are considered as the expert opinion and are given by the one-year conensus forecast of earnings yield as provided by analysts. This design allows tests of the predictions for a normative setting using actual market data. Comparing Bayes' rule to a decisions by a price trader, we find that economic loss is lower for the price trader than for the Bayesian trader under several specifications. However, using expert information in the Bayes' rule leads to better predictions for stocks that do not have high-risk characteristics.
Author | : |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 108 |
Release | : 1998 |
Genre | : Budget |
ISBN | : |
Download The Economic and Budget Outlook, an Update Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 114 |
Release | : 2010 |
Genre | : Budget |
ISBN | : |
Download The Budget and Economic Outlook, an Update Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : Asian Development Bank |
Publisher | : Asian Development Bank |
Total Pages | : 490 |
Release | : 2022-09-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9292697552 |
Download Asian Development Outlook 2022 Update Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
In this report, ADB has lowered its forecasts for economic growth in developing Asia and the Pacific to 4.3% in 2022 and 4.9% in 2023, amid mounting challenges. Its theme chapter looks at how digital entrepreneurship spurs growth and innovation. The region’s economy is expected to grow 4.3% this year, compared with ADB’s projection in April of a 5.2% expansion, while the growth forecast for next year is lowered to 4.9% from 5.3%. The downward revisions have been driven by increased monetary tightening by central banks, fallout from the protracted Russian invasion of Ukraine, and recurrent COVID-19 lockdowns in the People's Republic of China. Inflation in developing Asia this year is likely to reach 4.5%, up from ADB’s earlier projection of 3.7%. The forecast for 2023 is 4.0%, up from 3.1%. While inflation in the region remains lower than elsewhere, supply disruptions continue to push up food and fuel prices. The report's theme chapter looks at the role of entrepreneurship in achieving inclusive growth, and how governments in the region can create a more enabling environment for digital entrepreneurs
Author | : Günter Blöschl |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 380 |
Release | : 2003 |
Genre | : Climatic changes |
ISBN | : 9781901502329 |
Download Water Resources Systems Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 80 |
Release | : 2014 |
Genre | : Budget |
ISBN | : |
Download An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : Jinping Sun |
Publisher | : Routledge |
Total Pages | : 637 |
Release | : 2017-09-25 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 1351565117 |
Download Government Budget Forecasting Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Revenue and expenditure forecasting plays an important role in public budgeting and financial management, particularly during times of financial constraint, when citizens impose greater accountability upon government to use taxpayer dollars more efficiently. Despite its significance, revenue and expenditure forecasting is often overlooked in the budget process, and there is an imbalance between practice and research in this area. Based on the collaboration of budget scholars and practitioners, Government Budget Forecasting fulfills two purposes: Enhances the understanding of revenue and expenditure estimation both theoretically and practically Stimulates dialogue and debate among practitioners and academicians to identify good forecast practices as well as areas for improvement Divided into four parts, this comprehensive reference first examines forecast practices at the federal, state, and local levels, drawing on case studies that include California, Texas, and Louisiana. It then explores consensus systems and risk assessment, considering political factors and the costs of forecast errors. The text concludes with a call to transparency and guidance from a code of ethics, and a look at forecasting practices in emerging countries.
Author | : World Bank |
Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
Total Pages | : 172 |
Release | : 2021 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1464816980 |
Download Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Spring 2021 Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Governments play a critical role in the economies of Europe and Central Asia, where government expenditures are close to 40 percent of gross domestic product and the public sector accounts for nearly 27 percent of total employment, which is almost twice the global average. The public sector often attracts some of the best educated workers in the region. And support for a larger public sector is increasing due to aging populations and their growing health care and long-term care needs, rising inequality and greater support for redistribution, and increasing expenditures as governments address the challenges posed by the COVID-19 crisis. The significant role that government plays underscores the importance of the quality of governance in determining productivity and growth and effectively responding to the region’s economic and social challenges. Digital technology and the data revolution offer the potential to increase efficiency, transparency, responsiveness, and citizen trust, directly impacting the quality of government. Across the world, the quality of government is increasingly informed by the extent to which governments harness digital tools and GovTech to optimize management, service delivery, and overall state capacity. Technology and data are also key for fostering collaboration between governments and civil society to improve public sector efficiency and service delivery. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the costs associated with delaying digitalization and GovTech implementation and the opportunities that lie in public sector modernization.
Author | : Jonas Dovern |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 24 |
Release | : 2013-02-27 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1475587619 |
Download Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
We examine the behavior of forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 30 advanced and emerging economies during 1989–2010. Our main findings are as follows. First, our evidence does not support the validity of the sticky information model (Mankiw and Reis, 2002) for describing the dynamics of professional growth forecasts. Instead, the empirical evidence is more in line with implications of "noisy" information models (Woodford, 2002; Sims, 2003). Second, we find that information rigidities are more pronounced in emerging economies than advanced economies. Third, there is evidence of nonlinearities in forecast smoothing. It is less pronounced in the tails of the distribution of individual forecast revisions than in the central part of the distribution.
Author | : Roberta Gatti |
Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
Total Pages | : 68 |
Release | : 2024-04-08 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1464820988 |
Download Middle East and North Africa Economic Update Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The global economy is in its third year of deceleration amidst declining inflation and oil prices. The MENA region grew at 1.9 percent in 2023 and is forecasted to grow at 2.7 percent in 2024. And for the first time since the pandemic, MENA oil exporters and importers will grow at similar rates. The tragedy of the conflict in the Middle East has increased uncertainty. Rising debt leaves many countries in the region exposed. This report unpacks the nature of debt in the region. Oil importers have been unable to either inflate or grow out of debt. Exchange rate fluctuations, and particularly stock flow adjustments (SFA) play a sizeable role. The report highlights the need to address debt transparency. Extrabudgetary items, especially for developing oil importers, need to be accounted for. Primary balances are key, but only to the extent that they capture the true state of government finances.