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Understanding Risk

Understanding Risk
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 263
Release: 1996-06-05
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0309133246

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Understanding Risk addresses a central dilemma of risk decisionmaking in a democracy: detailed scientific and technical information is essential for making decisions, but the people who make and live with those decisions are not scientists. The key task of risk characterization is to provide needed and appropriate information to decisionmakers and the public. This important new volume illustrates that making risks understandable to the public involves much more than translating scientific knowledge. The volume also draws conclusions about what society should expect from risk characterization and offers clear guidelines and principles for informing the wide variety of risk decisions that face our increasingly technological society. Frames fundamental questions about what risk characterization means. Reviews traditional definitions and explores new conceptual and practical approaches. Explores how risk characterization should inform decisionmakers and the public. Looks at risk characterization in the context of the entire decisionmaking process. Understanding Risk discusses how risk characterization has fallen short in many recent controversial decisions. Throughout the text, examples and case studiesâ€"such as planning for the long-term ecological health of the Everglades or deciding on the operation of a waste incineratorâ€"bring key concepts to life. Understanding Risk will be important to anyone involved in risk issues: federal, state, and local policymakers and regulators; risk managers; scientists; industrialists; researchers; and concerned individuals.


Getting Risk Right

Getting Risk Right
Author: Geoffrey C. Kabat
Publisher: Columbia University Press
Total Pages: 405
Release: 2016-11-22
Genre: Medical
ISBN: 0231542852

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Do cell phones cause brain cancer? Does BPA threaten our health? How safe are certain dietary supplements, especially those containing exotic herbs or small amounts of toxic substances? Is the HPV vaccine safe? We depend on science and medicine as never before, yet there is widespread misinformation and confusion, amplified by the media, regarding what influences our health. In Getting Risk Right, Geoffrey C. Kabat shows how science works—and sometimes doesn't—and what separates these two very different outcomes. Kabat seeks to help us distinguish between claims that are supported by solid science and those that are the result of poorly designed or misinterpreted studies. By exploring different examples, he explains why certain risks are worth worrying about, while others are not. He emphasizes the variable quality of research in contested areas of health risks, as well as the professional, political, and methodological factors that can distort the research process. Drawing on recent systematic critiques of biomedical research and on insights from behavioral psychology, Getting Risk Right examines factors both internal and external to the science that can influence what results get attention and how questionable results can be used to support a particular narrative concerning an alleged public health threat. In this book, Kabat provides a much-needed antidote to what has been called "an epidemic of false claims."


Understanding Risk

Understanding Risk
Author: David Murphy
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 472
Release: 2008-04-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781584888949

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Sound risk management often involves a combination of both mathematical and practical aspects. Taking this into account, Understanding Risk: The Theory and Practice of Financial Risk Management explains how to understand financial risk and how the severity and frequency of losses can be controlled. It combines a quantitative approach with a


Understanding Risk-Taking

Understanding Risk-Taking
Author: Jens O. Zinn
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 370
Release: 2019-10-03
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 3030286509

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This book outlines and systematises findings from a growing body of research that examines the different rationales, dimensions and dynamics of risk-taking in current societies; providing insight into the different motivations and social roots of risk-taking to advance scholarly debates and improve social regulation. Conceptually, the book goes beyond common approaches which problematise socially undesirable risk-taking, or highlight the alluring character of risk-taking. Instead, it follows a broadly interpretivist approach and engages in examining motives, control, routinisation, reflexivity, skills, resources, the role of identity in risk-taking and how these are rooted in and framed by different social forces. Zinn draws on qualitative studies from different theoretical and conceptual backgrounds such as phenomenology, hermeneutics, pragmatism, feminism, class analysis, theory of practice and discourse analysis among others, to outline key distinctions and concepts central to the understanding of risk-taking. It will be a key resource for everyone who is concerned with the understanding and management of risk-taking in all kinds of social domains, such as immigration, youth, leisure sports, crime, health, finance, and social policy.


Understanding and Managing Model Risk

Understanding and Managing Model Risk
Author: Massimo Morini
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 452
Release: 2011-10-20
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0470977744

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A guide to the validation and risk management of quantitative models used for pricing and hedging Whereas the majority of quantitative finance books focus on mathematics and risk management books focus on regulatory aspects, this book addresses the elements missed by this literature--the risks of the models themselves. This book starts from regulatory issues, but translates them into practical suggestions to reduce the likelihood of model losses, basing model risk and validation on market experience and on a wide range of real-world examples, with a high level of detail and precise operative indications.


Know Your Chances

Know Your Chances
Author: Steven Woloshin
Publisher: Univ of California Press
Total Pages: 154
Release: 2008-11-30
Genre: Family & Relationships
ISBN: 0520252225

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Understanding risk -- Putting risk in perspective -- Risk charts : a way to get perspective -- Judging the benefit of a health intervention -- Not all benefits are equal : understand the outcome -- Consider the downsides -- Do the benefits outweight the downsides? -- Beware of exaggerated importance -- Beware of exaggerated certainty -- Who's behind the numbers?


Understanding Disaster Risk

Understanding Disaster Risk
Author: Pedro Pinto Santos
Publisher: Elsevier
Total Pages: 370
Release: 2020-10-07
Genre: Science
ISBN: 0128190477

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Understanding Disaster Risk: A Multidimensional Approach presents the first principle from the UNISDR Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, 2015-2030. The framework includes a discussion of risk and resilience from both a theoretical and governance perspective in light of ideas that are shaping our common future. In addition, it presents innovative tools and best practices in reducing risk and building resilience. Combining the applications of social, financial, technological, design, engineering and nature-based approaches, the volume addresses rising global priorities and focuses on strengthening the global understanding of vulnerability, displaced communities, cultural heritages and cultural identity. Readers will gain a multifaceted understanding of disaster, addressing both historic and contemporary issues. Focusing on the various dimensions of disaster risk, the book details natural and social components of risk and the challenges posed to risk assessment models under the climate change paradigm. Addresses the current challenges in policy and practice for building resilience strategies Follows the global frameworks for disaster risk reduction and sustainability, specifically the UNISDR Sendai Framework for DRR, 2015-2030 Aids in understanding the natural and social components of risk in a diverse and globalized world Presents the challenges posed to risk assessment models under the climate change paradigm


Ten Laws of Operational Risk

Ten Laws of Operational Risk
Author: Michael Grimwade
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 423
Release: 2022-01-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1119841356

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TEN LAWS OF OPERATIONAL RISK Unlike credit and market risk, operational risk currently lacks an overarching theory to explain how and why losses occur. As a result, operational risk managers have been forced to use unsatisfactory tools and processes that fail to add sufficient commercial value. In Ten Laws of Operational Risk: Understanding its Behaviours to Improve its Management, Michael Grimwade delivers an insightful discussion of the nature of operational risk and a groundbreaking redesign of the profession???s existing tools. The author???s Ten Laws are grounded on the business profiles of firms and the human and institutional behaviours that drive operational risk. They are underpinned by taxonomies for the causes; the inadequacies or failures that constitute both control failures and events; and the impacts of operational risks. Drawing on twenty-five years of first-hand experience and research, this book explains the patterns and trends that are apparent in the historical data and offers solutions to the persistent problems inherent in risk appetite, RCSAs, scenario analysis, reputational risk, stress testing, capital modeling, and insurance. It also provides fresh insights into the everyday activities of risk managers with respect to predictive key risk and control indicators, root cause analysis, why controls fail, the risks posed by change, and product risk profiles. Ten Laws of Operational Risk presents a structured and evidence-based approach to identifying emerging risks and predicting future behaviours related to pandemics, climate change, cybercrime, artificial intelligence, and machine learning. It includes revealing industry data, in-depth case studies, and real-world examples that shed light on recurring and obstinate problems in operational risk management. A must-read resource for Chief Risk Officers and other risk professionals, as well as regulators, management consultants, and students and scholars of operational risk, Ten Laws of Operational Risk provides an invaluable new, systematic, and rigorous approach to operational risk management. PRAISE FOR TEN LAWS OF OPERATIONAL RISK ???Operational Risk can no longer be described as a new concept, but as a discipline few attempts have been made to really understand its behaviour. In his book Michael does this very successfully, blending extensive practical experience with analytical thought leadership to propose a set of laws that explain why and how Operational Risks arise, and what can be done to manage them. Assertions are evidence based, with numerous real examples used to underpin his hypotheses. This is a valuable addition to Operational Risk thinking and is recommended for experienced professionals and novices alike.??? ??? Dr Luke Carrivick, Director of Research & Information, ORX ???Michael has established himself as one of Operational Risk???s foremost thinkers. His ability to use historical data to analyse events is unrivalled. In this must-read book, he identifies ten fundamental laws that provide every Operational Risk practitioner with a clear set of rules they can use to understand current events and predict their impacts.??? ??? Andrew Sheen, former Head of the FSA???s Operational Risk Review team ???Michael is one of the most prominent thinkers in Operational Risk. He combines a long career in Operational Risk management and measurement with a deep, long-standing reflection on the fundamental causes, dynamics and patterns in the manifestation of Operational Risk events. He produces, with this book, a remarkable synthesis of his insightful and innovative work.??? ??? Dr Ariane Chapelle, Honorary Reader, University College London; Managing Partner, Chapelle Consulting ???Michael is a highly respected expert in the field of Operational Risk, who has developed some ground-breaking frameworks for analysing this risk and guiding better risk management decisions. As a working practitioner in the field he brings many insights that will appeal to other practitioners as well as regulators, students and scholars.??? ??? Professor Elizabeth Sheedy, Macquarie Business School ???Michael???s views and analysis challenge the traditional Basel II views of Operational Risk and are genuinely thought-provoking. His book on the Ten Laws of Operational Risk will give financial services clarity and a practical view, where it has been previously lacking, on how best to manage such risks.??? ??? Tin Lau, Group Head of Financial and Strategic Risk, TP ICAP


Understanding and Managing Risk Attitude

Understanding and Managing Risk Attitude
Author: Dr David Hillson
Publisher: Gower Publishing, Ltd.
Total Pages: 207
Release: 2012-03-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1409450503

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Despite many years of development, risk management remains problematic for the majority of organizations. One common challenge is the human dimension, in other words, the way people perceive risk and risk management. Risk management processes and techniques are operated by people, each of whom is a complex individual, influenced by many different factors. And the problem is compounded by the fact that most risk management involves people working in groups. This introduces further layers of complexity through relationships and group dynamics. David Hillson's and Ruth Murray-Webster's Understanding and Managing Risk Attitude will help you understand the human aspects of risk management and to manage proactively the influence of human behaviour on the risk process. The authors introduce a range of models, perspectives and examples to define and detail the range of possible risk attitudes; looking both at individuals and groups. Using leading-edge thinking on self-awareness and emotional literacy, they develop a powerful approach to address the most common shortfall in current risk management: the failure to manage the human aspects of the process. All this is presented in a practical and applied framework, rather than as a theoretical or academic treatise, based on the authors' shared experiences and expertise, rather than empirical research. Anyone involved in implementing risk management will benefit from this book, including risk practitioners, senior managers and directors responsible for corporate governance, project managers and their teams. It is also essential reading for HR professionals and others interested in organizational or behavioural psychology. This second edition is updated to strengthen the understanding of individual risk attitudes and reinforce what individuals can do to manage those risk attitudes that are leading them away from their objectives. For people who want to embrace this subject, the book highlights ways forward that are proven and practical.


Risk

Risk
Author: Dan Gardner
Publisher: McClelland & Stewart
Total Pages: 416
Release: 2009-02-24
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 1551992108

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In the tradition of Malcolm Gladwell, Gardner explores a new way of thinking about the decisions we make. We are the safest and healthiest human beings who ever lived, and yet irrational fear is growing, with deadly consequences — such as the 1,595 Americans killed when they made the mistake of switching from planes to cars after September 11. In part, this irrationality is caused by those — politicians, activists, and the media — who promote fear for their own gain. Culture also matters. But a more fundamental cause is human psychology. Working with risk science pioneer Paul Slovic, author Dan Gardner sets out to explain in a compulsively readable fashion just what that statement above means as to how we make decisions and run our lives. We learn that the brain has not one but two systems to analyze risk. One is primitive, unconscious, and intuitive. The other is conscious and rational. The two systems often agree, but occasionally they come to very different conclusions. When that happens, we can find ourselves worrying about what the statistics tell us is a trivial threat — terrorism, child abduction, cancer caused by chemical pollution — or shrugging off serious risks like obesity and smoking. Gladwell told us about “the black box” of our brains; Gardner takes us inside, helping us to understand how to deconstruct the information we’re bombarded with and respond more logically and adaptively to our world. Risk is cutting-edge reading.