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| Author | : Asuka Suzuki-Parker |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 89 |
| Release | : 2012-01-05 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 3642250297 |
Download Uncertainties and Limitations in Simulating Tropical Cyclones Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The thesis work was in two major parts: development and testing of a new approach to detecting and tracking tropical cyclones in climate models; and application of an extreme value statistical approach to enable assessment of changes in weather extremes from climate models. The tracking algorithm applied a creative phase-space approach to differentiate between modeled tropical cyclones and their mid-latitude cousins. A feature here was the careful attention to sensitivity to choice of selection parameters, which is considerable. The major finding was that the changes over time were relatively insensitive to these details. This new approach will improve and add confidence to future assessments of climate impacts on hurricanes. The extremes approach utilized the Generalized Pareto Distribution (one of the standard approaches to statistics of extremes) applied to present and future hurricane distributions as modeled by a regional climate model, then applied the changes to current observations to extract the changes in the extremes. Since climate models cannot resolve these extremes directly, this provides an excellent method of determining weather extremes in general. This is of considerable societal importance as we are most vulnerable to such extremes and knowledge of their changes enables improved planning and adaptation strategies.
| Author | : Asuka Suzuki-Parker |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2011 |
| Genre | : Climatic changes |
| ISBN | : |
Download An Assessment of Uncertainties and Limitations in Simulating Tropical Cyclone Climatology and Future Changes Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The recent elevated North Atlantic hurricane activity has generated considerable interests in the interaction between tropical cyclones (TCs) and climate change. The possible connection between TCs and the changing climate has been indicated by observational studies based on historical TC records; they indicate emerging trends in TC frequency and intensity in some TC basins, but the detection of trends has been hotly debated due to TC track data issues. Dynamical climate modeling has also been applied to the problem, but brings its own set of limitations owing to limited model resolution and uncertainties. : The final goal of this study is to project the future changes of North Atlantic TC behavior with global warming for the next 50 years using the Nested Regional Climate Model (NRCM). Throughout the course of reaching this goal, various uncertainties and limitations in simulating TCs by the NRCM are identified and explored.
| Author | : Zhong Zhong |
| Publisher | : World Scientific |
| Total Pages | : 265 |
| Release | : 2018-02-01 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 9813232080 |
Download Simulations Of Tropical Cyclone In Regional Climate Models Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This book studies the pitfalls of regional climate models in simulating track and intensity of tropical cyclone over western North Pacific for the East Asian summer monsoon climate.A number of sensitivity experiments related to tropical cyclone simulation with different model configurations and model physical schemes, including model resolution, model lateral boundary condition, effect of sea surface temperature, cumulus parameterization scheme and model microphysics scheme, as well as the features and the failure of tropical cyclone simulation in regional climate models were carefully analyzed with model output with high temporal resolution, to investigate shortcomings of the models, so as to come up with better models to simulate and study tropical cyclone track and intensity.The book is suitable for graduate students in meteorology with focuses in the tropical cyclone simulation, as well as professionals devoted to model development and study of tropical cyclone activities.
| Author | : Johnny C L Chan |
| Publisher | : World Scientific |
| Total Pages | : 445 |
| Release | : 2010-04-30 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 9814465828 |
Download Global Perspectives On Tropical Cyclones: From Science To Mitigation Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This book is a completely rewritten, updated and expanded new edition of the original Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones published in 1995. It presents a comprehensive review of the state of science and forecasting of tropical cyclones together with the application of this science to disaster mitigation, hence the tag: From Science to Mitigation.Since the previous volume, enormous progress in understanding tropical cyclones has been achieved. These advances range from the theoretical through to ever more sophisticated computer modeling, all underpinned by a vast and growing range of observations from airborne, space and ocean observation platforms. The growth in observational capability is reflected by the inclusion of three new chapters on this topic. The chapter on the effects of climate change on tropical cyclone activity is also new, and appropriate given the recent intense debate on this issue. The advances in the understanding of tropical cyclones which have led to significant improvements in forecasting track, intensity, rainfall and storm surge, are reviewed in detail over three chapters. For the first time, a chapter on seasonal prediction is included. The book concludes with an important chapter on disaster mitigation, which is timely given the enormous loss of life in recent tropical cyclone disasters.World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather and Climate is indexed in SCOPUS.
| Author | : Kenji Satake |
| Publisher | : World Scientific |
| Total Pages | : 109 |
| Release | : 2012 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 9814405671 |
Download Advances in Geosciences Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This invaluable volume set of Advances in Geosciences continues the excellent tradition of the Asia-Oceania scientific community in providing the most up-to-date research results on a wide range of geosciences and environmental science. The information is vital to the understanding of the effects of climate change and extreme weather on the most populated regions and fastest moving economies in the world. Besides, these volumes also highlight original papers from many prestigious research institutions which are conducting cutting-edge studies in atmospheric physics, hydrogical science and water resource, ocean science and coastal study, planetary exploration and solar system science, seismology, tsunamis, upper atmospheric physics and space science.
| Author | : Richard Anthes |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 228 |
| Release | : 2016-06-29 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 1935704281 |
Download Tropical Cyclones Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Tropical Cyclones and hurricanes, long feared for the death and destruction that often accompanies them, are among the most fascinating of atmospheric phenomena. Created by thermodynamic processes, they unleash vast amounts of energy and influence a wide variety of natural processes along their paths. Richard Anthes tells the story of tropical cyclones creation and destruction, of meteorology's successes in understanding, modeling and predicting their behavior, and of the attempts to modify them. The book begins with a lively introduction to hurricanes, their awesome power, and their effects on individuals and societies in the past and present. The characteristics of the mature hurricane are revealed by consideration of rawinsonde, aircraft and satellite data. The physical processes responsible for the development and maintenance of tropical cyclones are treated comprehensively, and illustrated with both qualitative and quantitative examples. The role of the planetary boundary layer, cumulus convection and radiation are all discussed in detail. Progress in numerical simulation of tropical cyclones is carefully reviewed. Modern, three-dimensional models succeed in simulating observed features such as the eye and spiral rain bands and in predicting storm motion over time intervals of three days. Current capabilities to predict and modify hurricanes and tropical cyclones are fully examined. The methods and difficulties of operational forecasting, the economic aspects of storm predictions, and the trends in accuracy of offical forecasts are all considered. The potential benefits and scientific problems associated with hurricane modification are discussed as part of a review of experimental and theoretical results on the consquences of seeding hurricane clouds. A unique feature of the book is a thorough treatment of the interactions between storm and ocean, with both observations and thery being integrated to provide a complete description.
| Author | : Johnny C. L. Chan |
| Publisher | : World Scientific |
| Total Pages | : 445 |
| Release | : 2010 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 9814293482 |
Download Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Pt. I. Theory of tropical cyclones. ch. 1. Tropical cyclone structure and dynamics / Jeffrey D. Kepert. ch. 2. Tropical cyclone formation / Kevin J. Tory and William M. Frank. ch. 3. Air-sea interactions in tropical cyclones / Lynn K. Shay. ch. 4. Movement of tropical cyclones / Johnny C.L. Chan. ch. 5. The extratropical transition of tropical cyclones : structural characteristics, downstream impacts, and forecast challenges / Patrick A. Harr -- pt. II. Observations of tropical cyclones. ch. 6. Observing and analyzing the near-surface wind field in tropical cyclones / Mark D. Powell. ch. 7. Satellite observations of tropical cyclones / Christopher Velden and Jeffrey Hawkins. ch. 8. Aircraft observations of tropical cyclones / Sim D. Aberson [und weitere] -- pt. III. Climate variations of tropical cyclone activity. ch. 9. Tropical cyclones and climate change : a review / Thomas Knutson, Chris Landsea and Kerry Emanuel -- pt. IV. Forecasting of tropical cyclones. ch. 10. Track and structure forecasts of tropical cyclones / Julian Heming and Jim Goerss. ch. 11. The influence of natural climate variability on tropical cyclones, and seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity / Suzana J. Camargo [und weitere] -- pt. V. Hydrological aspects of tropical cyclones. ch. 12. Storm surge modeling and applications in coastal areas / Shishir K. Dube [und weitere] -- pt. VI. Societal impacts of tropical cyclones. ch. 13. Disaster mitigation and societal impacts / David King, Jim Davidson and Linda Anderson-Berry
| Author | : Anthony Lupo |
| Publisher | : BoD – Books on Demand |
| Total Pages | : 160 |
| Release | : 2020-11-04 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 1838803610 |
Download Current Topics in Tropical Cyclone Research Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This book highlights some of the most recent research in the climatological behavior of tropical cyclones as well as the dynamics, predictability, and character of these storms as derived using remote sensing techniques. Also included in this book is a review of the interaction between tropical cyclones and coastal ocean dynamics in the Northwest Pacific and an evaluation of the performance of CMIP6 models in replicating the current climate using accumulated cyclone energy. The latter demonstrates how the climate may change in the future. This book can be a useful resource for those studying the character of these storms, especially those with the goal of anticipating their future occurrence in both the short and climatological range and their associated hazards.
| Author | : Ryan Michael Remondelli |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2020 |
| Genre | : Meteorology |
| ISBN | : |
Download Simulation of Historical New England Tropical Cyclones Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
New England (NE) Tropical Cyclones (TCs) can produce significant damage, as well as provide increased forecast track and intensity complexity for forecasters. This is the result of the fact that these TCs recurve, often undergo extratropical transition, and are also forced via midlatitude dynamics that can act as a source of simulation track, structural, and intensity uncertainty. Consequently, not only do forecasters still struggle with forecasting NE TCs in real-time, but the region has had few such cases to quantify our ability to predict these storms in an age when they can now be explicitly resolved by Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). The track predictability of historical landfalling NE TCs was explored in this study through hindcasts of all landfalling NE TCs from 1900-2011. Utilizing version 4.1.1 of the Weather Forecast and Research Model Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) with two outer fixed domains (27 km, 9km), as well as a vortex-following inner domain (3 km), 18 cases were examined beginning 7 days prior landfall. As a result of utilizing relatively coarse ERA-20C analysis as boundary and initial conditions, WRF's vortex removal and insertion scheme was employed to provide more plausible initial conditions for the hindcasts that can be provided by ERA-20C alone. The resulting total-track, cross-track, and along-track errors were calculated and then compared to various recent model track forecast errors as well as the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) official track forecast errors. The evolution of the synoptic-scale patterns leading up to the time of landfall for these 18 TCs was then investigated. The distance of the simulated TCs to their surrounding troughs and ridges was also investigated. An objective climatology of the nearby trough, ridge, and jet axis locations was determined and analyzed. This analysis found that the average predictability of the historical NE TCs was low compared to a recent NHC climatology of forecast track errors. Lead times for when landfall projections occurred on long track Main Development Region storms were between 2 and 3 days before landfall. These results argue that the predictability of NE TCs utilizing a state of the art WRF model remains limited, giving inadequate lead time for emergency managers and forecasters.
| Author | : U.C. Mohanty |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 762 |
| Release | : 2016-11-21 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 9402408967 |
Download Advanced Numerical Modeling and Data Assimilation Techniques for Tropical Cyclone Predictions Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This book deals primarily with monitoring, prediction and understanding of Tropical Cyclones (TCs). It was envisioned to serve as a teaching and reference resource at universities and academic institutions for researchers and post-graduate students. It has been designed to provide a broad outlook on recent advances in observations, assimilation and modeling of TCs with detailed and advanced information on genesis, intensification, movement and storm surge prediction. Specifically, it focuses on (i) state-of-the-art observations for advancing TC research, (ii) advances in numerical weather prediction for TCs, (iii) advanced assimilation and vortex initialization techniques, (iv) ocean coupling, (v) current capabilities to predict TCs, and (vi) advanced research in physical and dynamical processes in TCs. The chapters in the book are authored by leading international experts from academic, research and operational environments. The book is also expected to stimulate critical thinking for cyclone forecasters and researchers, managers, policy makers, and graduate and post-graduate students to carry out future research in the field of TCs.
