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Trends in Mortality Decrease and Economic Growth

Trends in Mortality Decrease and Economic Growth
Author: Geng Niu
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

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The vast literature on extrapolative stochastic mortality models mainly focuses on the extrapolation of past mortality trends and summarizes the trends by one or more latent factors. However, the interpretation of these trends is typically not very clear. On the other hand, explanation methods are trying to link mortality dynamics with observable factors. This paper serves as an intermediate step between the two methods. We have performed a comprehensive analysis on the relationship between the latent trend in mortality dynamics and the trend in economic growth represented by GDP. Subsequently, the Lee-Carter framework is extended through the introduction of GDP as an additional factor next to the latent factor, which provides a better fit and better interpretable forecasts.


Long-term Trends in Health, Welfare, and Economic Growth in the United States

Long-term Trends in Health, Welfare, and Economic Growth in the United States
Author: Dora L. Costa
Publisher:
Total Pages: 68
Release: 1995
Genre: Health status indicators
ISBN:

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We present evidence showing that the course of economic growth and of health, as measured by stature, Body Mass Index (BMI), mortality rates, or the prevalence of chronic conditions, diverged in the nineteenth century and converged in the twentieth. To analyze the change in welfare resulting from changes in health, we estimate a Human Development Index and a Borda Ranking and we calculate Usher- adjusted incomes and the willingness to pay for a reduction in mortality risk. Prior to the Civil War the increase in income was insufficient to compensate for the decline in health, whereas improvements in health outpaced economic growth in the twentieth century. We identify numerous possible causes of the nineteenth century decline in health, including greater exposure to disease, hardship created by the Civil War, and rising inequality. Our evidence on trends in waist-hip ratio, BMI, and the prevalence of chronic conditions at older ages suggests that early life conditions may exert an impact on mortality and morbidity that is not manifest until older ages. The dramatic twentieth century improvement in early life conditions implies that cohorts who are now approaching their sixties will experience a much greater rate of increase in health and longevity than past generations.


Explaining Divergent Levels of Longevity in High-Income Countries

Explaining Divergent Levels of Longevity in High-Income Countries
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 200
Release: 2011-06-27
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 0309217105

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During the last 25 years, life expectancy at age 50 in the United States has been rising, but at a slower pace than in many other high-income countries, such as Japan and Australia. This difference is particularly notable given that the United States spends more on health care than any other nation. Concerned about this divergence, the National Institute on Aging asked the National Research Council to examine evidence on its possible causes. According to Explaining Divergent Levels of Longevity in High-Income Countries, the nation's history of heavy smoking is a major reason why lifespans in the United States fall short of those in many other high-income nations. Evidence suggests that current obesity levels play a substantial part as well. The book reports that lack of universal access to health care in the U.S. also has increased mortality and reduced life expectancy, though this is a less significant factor for those over age 65 because of Medicare access. For the main causes of death at older ages-cancer and cardiovascular disease-available indicators do not suggest that the U.S. health care system is failing to prevent deaths that would be averted elsewhere. In fact, cancer detection and survival appear to be better in the U.S. than in most other high-income nations, and survival rates following a heart attack also are favorable. Explaining Divergent Levels of Longevity in High-Income Countries identifies many gaps in research. For instance, while lung cancer deaths are a reliable marker of the damage from smoking, no clear-cut marker exists for obesity, physical inactivity, social integration, or other risks considered in this book. Moreover, evaluation of these risk factors is based on observational studies, which-unlike randomized controlled trials-are subject to many biases.


Future Directions for the Demography of Aging

Future Directions for the Demography of Aging
Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 409
Release: 2018-07-21
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 0309474108

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Almost 25 years have passed since the Demography of Aging (1994) was published by the National Research Council. Future Directions for the Demography of Aging is, in many ways, the successor to that original volume. The Division of Behavioral and Social Research at the National Institute on Aging (NIA) asked the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to produce an authoritative guide to new directions in demography of aging. The papers published in this report were originally presented and discussed at a public workshop held in Washington, D.C., August 17-18, 2017. The workshop discussion made evident that major new advances had been made in the last two decades, but also that new trends and research directions have emerged that call for innovative conceptual, design, and measurement approaches. The report reviews these recent trends and also discusses future directions for research on a range of topics that are central to current research in the demography of aging. Looking back over the past two decades of demography of aging research shows remarkable advances in our understanding of the health and well-being of the older population. Equally exciting is that this report sets the stage for the next two decades of innovative researchâ€"a period of rapid growth in the older American population.


Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting

Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting
Author: Tommy Bengtsson
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 349
Release: 2019-03-28
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 3030050750

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This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.


The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia

The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia
Author: Takatoshi Ito
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 403
Release: 2010-10-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0226386880

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Recent studies show that almost all industrial countries have experienced dramatic decreases in both fertility and mortality rates. This situation has led to aging societies with economies that suffer from both a decline in the working population and a rise in fiscal deficits linked to increased government spending. East Asia exemplifies these trends, and this volume offers an in-depth look at how long-term demographic transitions have taken shape there and how they have affected the economy in the region. The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia assembles a group of experts to explore such topics as comparative demographic change, population aging, the rising cost of health care, and specific policy concerns in individual countries. The volume provides an overview of economic growth in East Asia as well as more specific studies on Japan, Korea, China, and Hong Kong. Offering important insights into the causes and consequences of this transition, this book will benefit students, researchers, and policy makers focused on East Asia as well as anyone concerned with similar trends elsewhere in the world.