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Toward Deeper Reductions in U.S. and Russian Nuclear Weapons

Toward Deeper Reductions in U.S. and Russian Nuclear Weapons
Author: Micah Zenko
Publisher: Council on Foreign Relations
Total Pages: 48
Release: 2010
Genre: Ballistic missile defenses
ISBN: 0876094825
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Even after the implementation of the New START Treaty, Obama's goal of a "world free of nuclear weapons" will remain elusive: the United States and Russia will still command enough nuclear weapons to annihilate each other several times over. In this report, the author argues that reducing nuclear weapons stockpiles even further than New START treaty levels -- to one thousand warheads, including tactical nuclear weapons --

The Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy

The Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy
Author: Committee on International Security and Arms Control
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 119
Release: 1997-07-01
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 0309518377
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The debate about appropriate purposes and policies for U.S. nuclear weapons has been under way since the beginning of the nuclear age. With the end of the Cold War, the debate has entered a new phase, propelled by the post-Cold War transformations of the international political landscape. This volume--based on an exhaustive reexamination of issues addressed in The Future of the U.S.-Soviet Nuclear Relationship (NRC, 1991)--describes the state to which U.S. and Russian nuclear forces and policies have evolved since the Cold War ended. The book evaluates a regime of progressive constraints for future U.S. nuclear weapons policy that includes further reductions in nuclear forces, changes in nuclear operations to preserve deterrence but enhance operational safety, and measures to help prevent proliferation of nuclear weapons. In addition, it examines the conditions and means by which comprehensive nuclear disarmament could become feasible and desirable.

The Opportunity

The Opportunity
Author: Steven Pifer
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press
Total Pages: 260
Release: 2012
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0815724292
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For some observers, nuclear arms control is either a relic of the cold war, or a utopian dream about a denuclearized planet decades in the future. But, as Brookings scholars Steven Pifer and Michael O'Hanlon argue in The Opportunity, arms control can address some key security challenges facing Washington today and enhance both American and global security. Pifer and O'Hanlon make a compelling case for further arms control measures —to reduce the nuclear threat to the United States and its allies, to strengthen strategic stability, to promote greater transparency regarding secretive nuclear arsenals, to create the possibility for significant defense budget savings, to bolster American credibility in the fight to curb nuclear proliferation, and to build a stronger and more sustainable U.S.-Russia relationship. President Obama gave priority to nuclear arms control early in his first term and, by all accounts, would like to be transformational on these questions. Can there be another major U.S.-Russia arms treaty? Can the tactical and surplus strategic nuclear warheads that have so far escaped controls be brought into such a framework? Can a modus vivendi be reached between the two countries on missile defense? And what of multilateral accords on nuclear testing and production of fissile materials for nuclear weapons? Pifer and O'Hanlon concisely frame the issues, the background, and the choices facing the president; provide practical policy recommendations, and put it all in clear and readable prose that will be easily understood by the layman.

Arms for Uncertainty

Arms for Uncertainty
Author: Stephen J. Cimbala
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 265
Release: 2016-04-08
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1317178505
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Nuclear weapons are here to stay. They have survived into the twenty-first century as instruments of influence for the US, Russia, and other major military powers. But, unlike the Cold War era, future nuclear forces will be developed and deployed within a digital-driven world of enhanced conventional weapons. As such, established nuclear powers will have smaller numbers of nuclear weapons for the purpose of deterrence working in parallel with smarter conventional weapons and elite military personnel. The challenge is to agree proportional reductions in nuclear inventories or abstinence requiring an effective nonproliferation regime to contain aspiring or threshold nuclear weapons states. This is the most comprehensive view of nuclear weapons policy and strategy currently available. The author’s division of the nuclear issue into the three ages is a never seen before analytical construct. With President Obama reelected, the reduction and even elimination of nuclear weapons will now rise to the top of the agenda once more. Moreover, given the likelihood of reductions in US defense spending, the subject of the triad, which is covered in Chapter One, will no doubt be an important subject of debate, as will the issue of missile defense, covered in Chapter 10. This book provides an excellent analysis of the spread of nuclear weapons in Asia and the Middle East and the potential dangers of a North Korean or Iranian breakout, subjects that dominate current policy debates.

Toward Deeper Reductions in U.S. and Russian Nuclear Weapons

Toward Deeper Reductions in U.S. and Russian Nuclear Weapons
Author: Micah Zenko
Publisher: Council on Foreign Relations
Total Pages: 47
Release: 2010
Genre: History
ISBN: 0876094981
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The New START Treaty, signed by presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev in April 2010, was an important achievement. A follow-on to the 1991 START treaty, New START commits both countries to substantial reductions in their nuclear arsenals. Pending ratification in the Russian Duma and U.S. Senate, New START limits both countries to 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads--far below the Cold War peak of 31,000 strategic and tactical nuclear weapons in the United States alone. Moreover, the New START treaty furthers Obama's goal of "resetting" U.S.-Russia relations. In just the past two years, the former adversaries also finalized an agreement on plutonium disposition, imposed UN sanctions against Iran in reaction to its nuclear program, and enhanced security for non-deployed tactical nuclear weapons. Despite these signs of progress, it is unwise to be complacent. Even after the implementation of the New START Treaty, Obama's goal of a "world free of nuclear weapons" will remain elusive--the United States and Russia will still command enough nuclear weapons to annihilate each other several times over. In this Council Special Report, Fellow for Conflict Prevention Micah Zenko argues that reducing nuclear weapons stockpiles even further than New START treaty levels--to one thousand warheads, including tactical nuclear weapons--would be both strategically and politically advantageous. It would decrease the risk of nuclear weapons theft and nuclear attack and increase international political support for future U.S. initiatives to reduce or control nuclear warheads, all while maintaining a credible nuclear deterrent. To achieve such a significant reduction in a follow-on to the New START treaty, the United States and Russia would need to reach agreement on three long-standing and contentious issues. Tactical nuclear weapons deployments will be the most difficult of these challenges, Zenko writes, since Russia has a much larger arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons than does the United States and will therefore bear the brunt of the tactical nuclear weapons cuts. Missile defense is the second obstacle toward further significant nuclear reductions. Much work remains to secure Moscow's cooperation on--or acceptance of--the project. Finally, the United States and Russia must reach agreement on the use of nuclear vehicles for conventional weapons. It is difficult to overstate the potential danger if either country mistook a conventional missile for a nuclear one. Toward Deeper Reductions in U.S. and Russian Nuclear Weapons makes a thoughtful contribution to the discussion on how to build a stable future with far fewer nuclear weapons. With ongoing debate over the New START treaty in the Senate, this CSR serves as a reminder that there is more work to be done.

Russian Nuclear Weapons

Russian Nuclear Weapons
Author: U. S. Army
Publisher:
Total Pages: 266
Release: 2017-09-14
Genre:
ISBN: 9781549743009
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This important report from the U.S. Army's Strategic Studies Institute provides unique insights into the Russian nuclear arsenal, arms control, and American-Russian relationships. Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future * 1. Russian Nuclear and Conventional Weapons: The Broken Relationship * 2. Russia's Conventional Armed Forces: Reform and Nuclear Posture to 2020 * 3. Nuclear Weapons in Russian Strategy and Doctrine * 4. Russia's Security Relations with the United States: Futures Planned and Unplanned * 5. Nuclear Weapons in Russian National Security Strategy * 6. Caught between Scylla and Charybdis: The Relationship between Conventional and Nuclear Capabilities in Russian Military Thought * 7. Russia and Nuclear Weapons * 8. Russian Tactical Nuclear Weapons: Current Policies and Future Trends * 9. New START and Nonproliferation: Suitors or Separate Tables? * 10. Russia's Nuclear Posture and the Threat that Dare Not Speak its Name * Hillary Clinton, Vladimir Putin, Sergey Lavrov Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs. While the Cold War is long past, the importance of arms control in Russo-American relations and the related issue of nuclear weapons for Russia remain vital concerns. Indeed, without an appreciation of the multiple dimensions of the latter, progress in the former domain is inconceivable. With this in mind, the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) is very pleased to present the following essays, which explore many, if not all, of the issues connected with Russia's relatively greater reliance on nuclear weapons for its security. As such, they constitute an important contribution to the analysis of the Obama administration's reset policy, Russo-American relations, Russian foreign and defense policy, and international security in both Europe and Asia. Additionally, questions concerning the approach taken by other nuclear power nations in reference to the arms control agenda provide a crucial backdrop for the progress toward curbing the proliferation of nuclear weapons, a long-standing central goal of U.S. security policy. We offer these essays to our readers in the belief that the information and analyses contained herein will strengthen our understanding of Russia's extensive nuclear agenda and provide a deeper understanding of the many issues in international security connected with Russia and its nuclear posture. Dale Herspring and Roger McDermott present a systematic exposition and analysis of the reforms of the conventional forces and the impact this might have on nuclear issues. Andrei Shoumikhin, Pavel Baev, and Nikolai Sokov closely examine the ways in which Russia has previously thought about nuclear weapons, how it does so at present, and as well as how it might think about them in the future. Daniel Goure and Stephen Blank analyze some of the larger strategic issues driving Russian security and defense policy and their connection to nuclear weapons. Stephen Cimbala relates both the U.S. and Russian structures to issues tied to nonproliferation and to what future reductions to a 1,000 warhead level might look like, while Jacob Kipp analyzes the deep-seated strategic challenges that Russia faces in its Asian-Pacific Far East. Richard Weitz provides an in-depth analysis of the vexing issue of tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) that are already a source of friction between the two sides and one that will figure prominently in any future arms control negotiation. In many cases, it will become clear that in the attempt to answer the questions asked of them, the authors of this book have produced a considerable amount of overlap, i.e., more than one author addressing the same point. However, what is equally as clear is that there is no agreement among them. There was a deliberate attempt to avoid a "pre-cooked" consensus. Rather, each author's individual view is asserted in their chapters, underscoring the inherent opacity of Russian programs and the different analytical approaches of each writer.

Nuclear Arms Control

Nuclear Arms Control
Author: Amy F. Woolf
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
Total Pages: 27
Release: 2010-08
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1437931561
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On May 24, 2002, Pres. Bush and Russia¿s Pres. Putin signed the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty. It mandated that the U.S. and Russia reduce their strategic nuclear weapons to between 1,700 and 2,200 warheads by Dec. 31, 2012. The two nations began, in 2006, to hold discussions about the 2009 expiration of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which contains monitoring provisions. Contents of this report: (1) The Negot¿s.: Russian, and U.S. Objectives; Reaching an Agree.; Form and Content of the Agree.; (2) The Treaty; (3) Force Structures Under the Treaty; U.S., and Russia¿s Force Structure; (4) Assessing the Outcome: Russia¿s, and U.S. Objectives; (5) Treaty Ratification; (6) Response and Reaction; (8) The Road Ahead. Tables.

Driving to Zero

Driving to Zero
Author: U. S. Military
Publisher:
Total Pages: 72
Release: 2018-03-04
Genre:
ISBN: 9781980461791
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This unique study examines the issue of nuclear deterrence and disarmament. Nuclear deterrence, like climate change, is a devilishly complex issue that tends to polarize its community of experts. Disarmament advocates talk about the catastrophic dangers posed by large nuclear weapon stockpiles. Proponents discuss the inherent security advantages provided by nuclear deterrence. With some notable exceptions, attitudes among world leaders in the past 40 years tend to support reduced weapon stockpiles and policies to prevent proliferation. The U.S., by virtue of its large nuclear stockpile and stature as a global superpower, remains a leader for this issue. U.S. leadership has long stated a policy towards nuclear disarmament that is conditional on the world environment and preserving security of U.S. interests and allies. This policy has generated numerous proposals by various strategists to reduce the U.S. nuclear stockpile to levels well below the current force structure. Inevitably, each proposal generates considerable debate about the quantity of the reduction. This paper contends that quantity of reductions should not be the primary focus of debate. Rather proposals should be analyzed within the larger context of a chronological continuum with New START as the initial point and global zero as the end point. This approach aligns the entire community along the same framework and permits objective analysis of each proposal's stated deterrence objectives, how they derive credibility for these objectives, and implications to U.S. policy. Several proposals were examined in the paper to populate the continuum. The end result shows that the process of reducing the U.S. stockpile to low numbers will have profound implications to U.S. nuclear policy that have not been adequately discussed or tested. Debate over what the 'right' number of weapons is must shift to how the U.S. credibly drives to zero. On 5 April 2009, President Obama spoke at Hradcany Square in Prague and declared "So today, I state clearly and with conviction America's commitment to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons." The President's speech and follow-on policy in the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review emphasized a renewed focus on reducing the U.S. nuclear arsenal with a long-term goal of global nuclear disarmament. The New START Treaty, entered into force on February 5, 2011, was another tangible result of this focus on the 'road to zero.' While even the staunchest advocates admit total disarmament could take generations, if ever, these events imply a commitment to cut stockpiles that go far beyond previous arms control agreements and unilateral actions and have reenergized focus on various proposals for deeper reductions. Most of these proposals are essentially static analyses that claim deterrence would be preserved at some new stockpile threshold. Inevitably, strategists then spend considerable time arguing why the various thresholds either 'go too far' or 'don't go far enough.' With all due respect to the experts, I contend they are missing the point. Rather than supporting or tearing apart each new proposal based on subjective stockpile numbers, proposals should be evaluated dynamically along a chronological continuum. This framework accommodates the idea that various thresholds may be valid at different times. Thus, it becomes more important to evaluate proposals based on their stated deterrence objectives, how they derive credibility for these objectives, and implications to U.S. policy when aligned chronologically along the 'road to zero.' To examine this approach, I will use several proposals that are representative of different points along the continuum.

Russian Nuclear Weapons

Russian Nuclear Weapons
Author: Stephen J. Blank
Publisher:
Total Pages: 522
Release: 2011-11-01
Genre:
ISBN: 9781470064174
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As of November 2010, the so-called "New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty)" treaty between the United States and Russia that was signed in Prague, Czech Republic, on April 8, 2010, awaits a ratification vote in the Senate. Regardless of the arguments pro and con that have emerged since it was signed, it is clear that the outcome of the ratification vote will not only materially affect the Obama administration's re¬set policy towards Russia, but also the strategic nuclear forces of both signatories. Indeed, throughout the Cold War, both sides built up their forces based on what each was thought to have or be building. Although the Bush administration (2001-09) rhetorically announced its intention to sever this mutual hostage relationship, it failed in that regard. As a result, critical aspects of that relationship still survive in Russia's orientation to the United States and in the language of the treaty, especially in its preamble, which explicitly affirms a link between nuclear offense and defense.Therefore, whatever the fate of the treaty and the reset policy, it is clear that both Moscow and Washing¬ton stand before crossroads in regard to the future of their strategic nuclear programs and force structures. Moreover, each side's course of action will tangibly affect the future course of action of the other side regarding the panoply of issues and policies connected with the development of nuclear weapons and the missions for them. With this in mind, the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) organized a conference bringing together several distinguished experts on Russian nuclear weapons. The conference took place at the National Defense University, Fort Lesley J. McNair, Washington, DC, on June 28, 2010, and the papers that follow are the revised versions of the papers presented at this conference.Each author was asked to answer several different questions pertaining to the present and future posture of Russia's nuclear weapons (including tactical nuclear weapons). Moreover, it quickly became clear that Russia's nuclear future in many ways, large and small, depends greatly on the degree of success that Moscow will have in its current large-scale efforts at comprehensive military reform. These reforms encompass virtually the entire military structure and are the most thoroughgoing reforms since Mikhail Frunze's reforms in 1924-25. Consequently, no analysis of nuclear present and future posture is possible with¬out a systematic analysis of those reforms and their impact. Therefore, the following chapters provide an examination of Russia's military and political motives behind nuclear weapons policy as they pertain not only to the U.S./North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), but also to China, whose rising power has clearly caught the Kremlin's attention. Dale Herspring and Roger McDermott present a systematic exposition and analysis of the reforms of the conventional forces and the impact this might have on nuclear issues. Andrei Shoumikhin, Pavel Baev, and Nikolai Sokov closely examine the ways in which Russia has previously thought about nuclear weapons, how it does so at present, and as well as how it might think about them in the future. Daniel Goure and Stephen Blank analyze some of the larger strategic issues driving Russian security and defense policy and their connection to nuclear weapons. Stephen Cimbala relates both the U.S. and Russian structures to issues tied to nonproliferation and to whatfuture reductions to a 1,000 warhead level might look like, while Jacob Kipp analyzes the deep-seated strategic challenges that Russia faces in its Asian-Pacific Far East. Richard Weitz provides an in-depth analysis of the vexing issue of tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) that are already a source of friction between the two sides and one that will figure prominently in any future arms control negotiation.