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Three Essays on International Equity Returns and Valuation Ratios

Three Essays on International Equity Returns and Valuation Ratios
Author: Ji Youn An
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2010
Genre:
ISBN:

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This dissertation explores the importance of firm valuation ratios (or stock price multiples) in predicting returns in international markets. This characteristic has been documented by literature as the value premium. In Chapter 2, "Warranted Multiples and Future Returns" joint with Sanjeev Bhojraj and David Ng, we look into the U.S. stock market and examine whether adjusted stock multiples can lead to higher predictability in stock returns. We adjust stock multiples by common economic factors and find that the adjusted price multiples can explain future returns better than unadjusted price multiples. In Chapter 3, "Country, Industry and Idiosyncratic Components in Valuation Ratios" joint with Sanjeev Bhojraj and David Ng, we examine the importance of country, industry and firm-idiosyncratic components in firm valuation ratios with a sample from 33 countries. We find that firm valuation ratios are largely affected by country membership. However, we confirm that firmidiosyncratic component in a firm valuation ratio leads the returns predictability, i.e. higher level of value premium. In Chapter 4, "Can the Long-Run Risks Explain the International Value Premium? Evidence Using Last Century Data", I examine where the value premium is coming from. I explore in depth whether the long-run risks model, a recently introduced asset pricing model, can explain the value premium in 17 developed countries.


Three Essays in International Finance

Three Essays in International Finance
Author: Byong-Ju Lee
Publisher: Stanford University
Total Pages: 132
Release: 2011
Genre:
ISBN:

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This thesis consists of three essays on international finance. The first essay is "Exchange rates and Fundamentals". A new open interest rate parity condition that takes account of economic fundamentals is developed from stochastic discount factors (SDFs) of two countries. Through this parity condition, business cycles or fundamentals are linked to exchange rates. Key empirical findings from this parity condition are as follows. First, this model beats the random walk hypothesis: economic fundamentals explain exchange rate movements for high interest rate currencies. Exchange rates of low interest rate currencies act like a random walk because they are less correlated with fundamentals owing to their low risk. For example, U.S. business cycles explain the direction of changes in exchange rates against the dollar. The same thing is true for Japan. Second, this model resolves the forward premium puzzle: the forward premium puzzle is not a general characteristic as regarded in previous studies. It happens when the risk awareness of investors is low, during economic expansions and for low risk currencies. The second essay is "Carry Trade and Global Financial Instability". Carry trade, an opportunistic investment strategy that takes advantage of interest rate differential across countries, is identified the cause of the large-scale depreciations of peripheral currencies in the later half of 2008. A simultaneous equations model, which is derived from a conceptual partial equilibrium model for a local foreign exchange market, is estimated from a cross-sectional sample. The results suggest that the larger appreciation of the yen than the dollar was brought about by a lack of the local supply of the yen rather than a more severe crunch of yen credits. The third essay is "The Economic Origin of Letters of Credit". This essay discusses the economic origin of letters of credit, an instrument widely used in international trade. A game theoretical analysis shows that letters of credit improve efficiency in trade settlements, increasing returns in trade. A few notable facts on letters of credit are discussed. First, the new institution is adopted by merchant banks to maximize their profits and in the process, an improvement in efficiency of international transactions is obtained. Second, the organization established by the legacy institution, bills of exchange, played a critical role in adopting the new institution. Third, the legal enforcement is not essential in this economic institution. Finally, two drivers are identified that improve efficiency of transactions: concentration and projection.


Essays on the Term Structure of Equity Returns

Essays on the Term Structure of Equity Returns
Author: Layne David Kirshon
Publisher:
Total Pages: 175
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN:

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This dissertation contains three essays on the term structure of equity returns. In the first chapter I document substantial variation in the cross-section of the term premium of US stocks between 1996 and 2019. I introduce a model with multiple stocks and an SDF with two priced sources of risk – dividend volatility risk and discount rate risk – which generates an economy with both upward and downward sloping equity term structures. The model creates two hypotheses: (1) dividend strips of stocks with more volatile dividends should earn higher returns, and (2) controlling for dividend volatility, cash flow duration should increase a stock’s term premium. I use the Fama-French factors to empirically validate the model, with factor regressions explaining the majority of variation in term premia. The second chapter studies the relationship between the low volatility anomaly and the equity term structure. I show that dividend strip returns are positively related to measures of risk and volatility, while term premium returns are negatively related to risk and volatility. This generates a puzzle for explanations of the low volatility anomaly based on general preference for volatility, such as leverage constraints, that cannot distinguish across the term structure. The results support market specific explanations such as behavioral models of utility over realized gains (as opposed to unrealized paper gains) from investments. The third chapter studies the effect of buybacks on the equity term premium. First, I show that firms that conduct a buyback for the first time see an immediate drop in the returns to their dividend strips (due to unfulfilled dividend expectations), and a concurrent increase in their term premia. This confirms that buybacks do indeed substitute for dividends. Second, I show that firms that have repurchased shares earn a “buyback premium” due to the fact that cash flows may be returned as repurchases instead of dividends.


Three Essays on the Performance of Investment Management Companies

Three Essays on the Performance of Investment Management Companies
Author: Srinidhi Kanuri
Publisher:
Total Pages: 99
Release: 2015
Genre: Electronic dissertations
ISBN:

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In the first essay, we evaluate the performance of commodity mutual funds. The use of commodities to hedge inflation risk and diversify portfolios is generally considered to be an important consideration for portfolio management. Direct investment in commodities or commodity derivatives requires that investors have significant assets and/or expertise in these commodities or their respective derivatives markets. As an alternative to direct investment, investors in recent years have increasingly resorted to the use of commodity based mutual funds. At issue is the question of whether or not these funds are delivering the benefits investors expect. In this paper we evaluate the performance, persistence, market timing and selectivity of four categories of mutual funds whose returns are based on commodity prices over the time period from each fund's inception through December, 2012. Our results indicate that these funds have not been able to create positive alphas for their investors; have negative or insignificant performance persistence; and have no market timing ability. Some of the categories of funds, however do exhibit some selectivity. We did find that when these commodity based funds' performance was evaluated during specific time periods of market downturns (e.g., the 2000 stock market downturn and the 2007 financial crisis), their performance was significantly positive which indicates that these funds provide a good hedge during bear markets/financial crises. The second essay evaluates the performance and diversification benefits of international ETFs for U.S. investors during and after the recent financial crisis. Our results show that U.S. ETFs outperform all categories of international ETFs for the period of our study (January 2008 - June 2013); they have higher average monthly returns, lower risk (standard deviation of returns), higher risk-adjusted performance (Sharpe, Sortino, and Treynor ratios) and the highest cumulative returns over the entire period. When we form equally weighted portfolios of each ETF category and compute their risk-adjusted performance, we again find that U.S. ETF portfolios had the best performance for the entire period. We also find that U.S. ETFs have the lowest tracking error during the entire period. Most of these ETFs passively track the benchmark and do not manage for positive alpha. Previous research has questioned the diversification benefits of international investing during times of financial distress. We find that international ETFs are highly dependent on major U.S. indices, therefore, they offer limited diversification benefits for U.S. investors. "In business, I look for economic castles protected by unbreachable 'moats'." Warren Buffett The third essay evaluates the performance of Wide Moat stocks. Companies that have sustainable competitive advantages should be able to create a barrier (moat) to prevent or lessen competition from other firms. The wider the moat the greater the barrier and the more secure the company's profitability. Using the Morningstar classification of "Wide Moat" stocks, we construct annually rebalanced equal- and value-weighted portfolios to analyze their performance in order to determine if they deliver superior performance relative to standard benchmark portfolios. The period for our analysis extends from June 2002 through May 2014. We find that the "Wide Moat" portfolios outperform both the S & P 500 and Russell 3000 indices generating higher average monthly and annualized returns, Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Treynor Ratio, Omega Ratio, Upside Potential Ratio, M2, M2 Alpha and cumulative returns. When we compute alpha using Carhart four-factor and Fama-French five-factor models, we find that "Wide Moat" portfolios had significantly positive risk-adjusted alphas with both the models. "Wide Moat" portfolios also lost less value during the 2007-2009 financial crisis compared to both S & P 500 and Russell 3000. In conclusion, we find that "Wide Moat" stocks have created significant value for their investors over the course of our study.


香港研究博士论文注释书目

香港研究博士论文注释书目
Author: Frank Joseph Shulman
Publisher: Hong Kong University Press
Total Pages: 878
Release: 2001-01-01
Genre: Language Arts & Disciplines
ISBN: 9789622093973

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A descriptively annotated, multidisciplinary, cross-referenced and extensively indexed guide to 2,395 dissertations that are concerned either in whole or in part with Hong Kong and with Hong Kong Chinese students and emigres throughout the world.