Theory And Methods For Supporting High Level Military Decisionmaking PDF Download
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Author | : Paul K. Davis |
Publisher | : Rand Corporation |
Total Pages | : 106 |
Release | : 2007 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0833040391 |
Download Theory and Methods for Supporting High Level Military Decisionmaking Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This report describes an approach to high-level decision support for a Joint Forces Air Component Commander in combat operations or a Chief of Staff in defense planning. Its central theme is the fundamental importance of dealing effectively with uncertainty, whether in effects-based operations, building the Air Force's Commander's Predictive Environment, or planning future forces with the methods of capabilities-based planning. Because many features of the future cannot be predicted with reasonable confidence, it is better to proceed with the expectation of surprise developments and to have skill in recognizing adaptations and making them than it is to treat uncertainty merely as an annoyance. This report sketches the framework of a high-level decision-support environment that is top-down, expresses concepts in simple and intuitive language, deals explicitly with risk and uncertainty, and provides the capability for decisionmakers to readily discover and question the bases for key assumptions and assessments. It can accommodate both "rational-analytic" and "naturalistic" decisionmakers, allowing them to produce strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust (FAR). Two explicit methods and their related tools are described. The first involves portfolio-style thinking and analysis, a good mechanism for balancing risks and other considerations in choosing a course of action. The second is a novel modification of foresight exercises that addresses the need to include humans effectively in dealing with uncertainty. A more extensive discussion of available methods and enabling technologies is also presented, along with some recommendations about investment priorities.
Author | : Paul K. Davis |
Publisher | : Rand Corporation |
Total Pages | : 181 |
Release | : 2005-09-14 |
Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
ISBN | : 083304088X |
Download Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision-Support Systems Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
A selective review of modern decision science and implications for decision-support systems. The study suggests ways to synthesize lessons from research on heuristics and biases with those from "naturalistic research." It also discusses modern tools, such as increasingly realistic simulations, multiresolution modeling, and exploratory analysis, which can assist decisionmakers in choosing strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust.
Author | : Oren Ergas |
Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
Total Pages | : 208 |
Release | : 2016-01-26 |
Genre | : Philosophy |
ISBN | : 1119147336 |
Download Philosophy East / West Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Philosophy East/West showcases new scholarship in the philosophy of education and contemplative studies, paying particular attention to the intersection of mindfulness, evidence-based science, and wisdom traditions. Moves beyond simplistic explanations of “Eastern” and “Western” to explore the complexity and diversity of various wisdom traditions Investigates the effect of mindfulness-based curricular interventions on current educational theory and practice Uses insights from important Western philosophers—including Heidegger, Levinas, and Foucault—to situate contemplative practice within contemporary educational theory Emphasizes the importance of transcultural and intercultural approaches in the philosophy of education
Author | : |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 55 |
Release | : 2003 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Download In Support of Decision Making Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This monograph investigates the art and science of problem solving and decision making in the operational planning environment. The Army's current problem solving and decision making doctrine found in FM 5-0 (101-5) Army Planning and Orders Production (Final Draft) provides one simplistic process and lacks information in the art of problem solving for planners and decision makers to follow. This research investigates the theory of problem solving and compares proven problem solving processes used and accepted in the business community with the Army's problem solving and decision making process. The research identifies components common to the processes analyzed, establishing goals or end state objectives, gathering information, and assessing implementation, which generally present challenges to the planner, and suggests methods to facilitate definition and communicate findings. The problem solving and military decision making process contained in the Army's doctrine serves as a sufficient beginning point for planning at the tactical level; however, due to rigidity and a lack of examples in problem solving theory, it is not sufficient when dealing with operational level problems. The Army's process contains significant shortcomings for planners at the operational level because it does not address the theory of problem solving and lacks sufficient background of key components of the process - goal setting, information gathering, and implementation assessment. This research concludes with recommendations to improve the Army's doctrine. It suggests the Army modify its existing problem solving and decision making doctrine to address additional relevant processes that are effective in a time constrained environment and when dealing with complex problems.
Author | : Paul K. Davis |
Publisher | : Rand Corporation |
Total Pages | : 89 |
Release | : 2007 |
Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
ISBN | : 0833041266 |
Download Analysis, Analysis Practices, and Implications for Modeling and Simulation Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
An examination of analysis and analysis practices for defense planning, the paper1s purpose is to delineate priorities for the way ahead, i.e., for investments and other actions to ensure that future models and simulations will serve the needs of decisionmakers. The analysis in question is accomplished for Quadrennial Reviews and for continuing work on capability assessments, requirements analysis, and program analysis.
Author | : Frank A. Camm |
Publisher | : RAND Corporation |
Total Pages | : 260 |
Release | : 2009 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : |
Download Managing Risk in USAF Force Planning Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Presents a risk-management process would help senior Air Force leaders to (1) focus planning on the most salient threats, (2) gain greater clarity on the risks associated with alternative courses of action across multiple futures, (3) maintain a sense of the persistent uncertainties associated with any policy choice, and (4) effectively communicate their judgments about risk to key audiences.
Author | : Ognyan Kounchev |
Publisher | : IOS Press |
Total Pages | : 360 |
Release | : 2007 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1586037609 |
Download Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Security environment is characterized by deep uncertainty. Threats are being posed not only by adversary (political) forces but may also come from natural challenges. This title reflects the initial state of a dialogue between specialists in security and specialists in mathematics, computer and information sciences on security topics.
Author | : National Defense Research Institute (U.S.) |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 2 |
Release | : 2005 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Download Modern Decision Science Suggests New Methods and Tools to Support Military Decisionmaking Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : William P. Fox |
Publisher | : Springer Nature |
Total Pages | : 498 |
Release | : 2019-08-28 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 303020569X |
Download Applications of Operations Research and Management Science for Military Decision Making Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Based on many years of applied research, modeling and educating future decision makers, the authors have selected the critical set of mathematical modeling skills for decision analysis to include in this book. The book focuses on the model formulation and modeling building skills, as well as the technology to support decision analysis. The authors cover many of the main techniques that have been incorporated into their three-course sequence in mathematical modeling for decision making in the Department of Defense Analysis at the Naval Postgraduate School. The primary objective of this book is illustrative in nature. It begins with an introduction to mathematical modeling and a process for formally thinking about difficult problems, illustrating many scenarios and illustrative examples. The book incorporates the necessary mathematical foundations for solving these problems with military applications and related military processes to reinforce the applied nature of the mathematical modeling process.
Author | : National Research Council |
Publisher | : National Academies Press |
Total Pages | : 286 |
Release | : 2015-01-02 |
Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
ISBN | : 0309298741 |
Download U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Since the early 1960s, the U.S. strategic nuclear posture has been composed of a triad of nuclear-certified long-range bombers, intercontinental ballistic missiles, and submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Since the early 1970s, U.S. nuclear forces have been subject to strategic arms control agreements. The large numbers and diversified nature of the U.S. nonstrategic (tactical) nuclear forces, which cannot be ignored as part of the overall nuclear deterrent, have decreased substantially since the Cold War. While there is domestic consensus today on the need to maintain an effective deterrent, there is no consensus on precisely what that requires, especially in a changing geopolitical environment and with continued reductions in nuclear arms. This places a premium on having the best possible analytic tools, methods, and approaches for understanding how nuclear deterrence and assurance work, how they might fail, and how failure can be averted by U.S. nuclear forces. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities identifies the broad analytic issues and factors that must be considered in seeking nuclear deterrence of adversaries and assurance of allies in the 21st century. This report describes and assesses tools, methods - including behavioral science-based methods - and approaches for improving the understanding of how nuclear deterrence and assurance work or may fail in the 21st century and the extent to which such failures might be averted or mitigated by the proper choice of nuclear systems, technological capabilities, postures, and concepts of operation of American nuclear forces. The report recommends criteria and a framework for validating the tools, methods, and approaches and for identifying those most promising for Air Force usage.