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The Rational Expectations Revolution

The Rational Expectations Revolution
Author: Preston J. Miller
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 534
Release: 1994
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780262631556

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These 21 readings describe the orgins and growth of the macroeconomic analysis known as "rational expectations". The readings trace the development of this approach from the late 1970s to the 1990s.


A History of Macroeconomics from Keynes to Lucas and Beyond

A History of Macroeconomics from Keynes to Lucas and Beyond
Author: Michel De Vroey
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 451
Release: 2016-01-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1316419002

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This book retraces the history of macroeconomics from Keynes's General Theory to the present. Central to it is the contrast between a Keynesian era and a Lucasian - or dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) - era, each ruled by distinct methodological standards. In the Keynesian era, the book studies the following theories: Keynesian macroeconomics, monetarism, disequilibrium macroeconomics (Patinkin, Leijongufvud and Clower), non-Walrasian equilibrium models, and first-generation new Keynesian models. Three stages are identified in the DSGE era: new classical macroeconomics (Lucas), RBC modelling, and second-generation new Keynesian modeling. The book also examines a few selected works aimed at presenting alternatives to Lucasian macroeconomics. While not eschewing analytical content, Michel De Vroey focuses on substantive assessments, and the models studied are presented in a pedagogical and vivid yet critical way.


Why are Saving Rates So Different Across Countries?

Why are Saving Rates So Different Across Countries?
Author: Sebastian Edwards
Publisher:
Total Pages: 64
Release: 1995
Genre: Interest rates
ISBN:

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This paper analyzes the determinants of savings in the world economy, and discusses why saving ratios have been so uneven across countries. A distinction is made between private and government savings, using panel data for 36 countries, from 1970 to 1992. In particular, it is assumed that government savings are not completely exogenous, and respond to both economic and political (strategic) determinants, along the lines of the recent literature on the political economy of macroeconomic policy. Using instrumental variables estimation methods it is found that per capita growth is one of the most important determinants of both private and public savings. The results indicate that government-run social security systems affect private savings negatively. In addition, the results provide some support for the political economy perspective to government finances, which evidences a different underlying process determining public savings. Public savings tend to be lower in countries with higher political instability. Higher government savings crowd out private savings, but in a less than proportional fashion. Higher levels of foreign savings - i.e. reductions in the current account balance - are associated with lower domestic (both private and public) saving rates, although the degree of offset is also less than proportional. The degree of financial development turns out to be another important determinant of private savings. The results are mixed regarding the role of borrowing constraints - a topic deserving additional research attention.


Product Development and the Timing of Information Disclosure Under U.S. and Japanese Patent Systems

Product Development and the Timing of Information Disclosure Under U.S. and Japanese Patent Systems
Author: Reiko Aoki
Publisher:
Total Pages: 44
Release: 1995
Genre: Competition
ISBN:

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This paper examines the consequences of the differences in the timing of information disclosure between the U.S. and Japanese patent systems. Under the Japanese system it is possible for a firm to apply for a patent knowing the exact specifications of a rival's patent application. In contrast, in the U.S. the only way a firm learns about a rival's innovation is upon the actual granting of the rival's patent. We argue that this difference enables Japanese firms to coordinate their R&D efforts better than their U.S. counterparts and that this, in turn, leads to smaller quality improvements under the Japanese system. We show that the creation/diffusion tradeoff of patents can be influenced not only by the scope and length of patent protection but also by other features of the patenting process.


James Tobin

James Tobin
Author: Willem H. Buiter
Publisher:
Total Pages: 98
Release: 2003
Genre: Economists
ISBN:

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Jim Tobin, who died on March 11, 2002 at the age of 84, was one of giants of economics of the second half of the twentieth century and the greatest macroeconomist of his generation. Tobin's influence on macroeconomic theory is so pervasive - so much part of our professional 'acquis' - that many younger economists often are not even aware that it is his ideas they are elaborating, testing, criticising, refuting or re-inventing. In this Appreciation, I consider Tobin's scholarly contributions, made over a period of more than 50 years. Tobin received the 1981 Nobel Memorial Prize for his analysis of financial markets and their relations to expenditure decisions, employment, production and prices'. I consider his contributions to mean-variance portfolio demand and asset pricing theory, especially the Portfolio Separation Theorem; pitfalls in financial model building; portfolio balance and flow of funds models and the 'credit channel'; the life-cycle model and social security; econometric methodology, including the Tobit estimator and his pioneering work using both time series and cross-sectional data to estimate food demand functions; economic growth; Tobin's the 'Tobin Tax'; the monetary and fiscal policy effectiveness debate, first with Milton Friedman and then with the New Classical Macroeconomics and Real Business Cycle schools; and Tobin's approach to methodological questions including microfoundations and aggregation.


Crafting Consensus

Crafting Consensus
Author: Nicole Baerg
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Total Pages: 218
Release: 2020-08-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0190499486

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In a world dependent on the constant sharing of information, central bankers increasingly communicate their policies to the mass public. Central bank communications are drafted in monetary policy committee meetings composed of policymakers with differing interests. Despite their differences, committee members must come together, write, and agree to an official policy statement. Once released to the public, central bank communications then affect citizens' actions and ultimately, the economy. But how exactly does this work? In Crafting Consensus, Nicole Baerg explains how the transparency of central bank communication depends on the configuration of committee members' preferences. Baerg argues that monetary policy committees composed of members with differing preferences over inflation are better suited to communicating precise information with the public. These diverse committees produce central bank statements of higher quality and less uncertainty than those from more homogeneous committees. Additionally, she argues that higher quality statements more effectively shape individuals' inflation expectations and move the economy in ways that policymakers intend. Baerg demonstrates that central bankers are not impartial technocrats and that their preferences and the institutional rules where they work matter for understanding the politics of monetary policy and variations in economic performance over time. Conducting empirical analysis from historical archival data, textual analysis, machine-learning, survey experiments, and cross-sectional time-series data, Crafting Consensus offers a new theory of committee decision making and a battery of empirical tests to provide a rich understanding of modern-day central banking.


Milton Friedman & Economic Debate in the United States, 1932–1972: Volume 1

Milton Friedman & Economic Debate in the United States, 1932–1972: Volume 1
Author: Edward Nelson
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 758
Release: 2020-11-06
Genre: Biography & Autobiography
ISBN: 022668380X

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First in a two-volume study of Friedman’s long career: “No previous biographer has Nelson’s deep and sophisticated understanding of monetary economics.” —Economic History This study is the first to distill Nobel Prize winner Milton Friedman’s vast body of writings into an authoritative account of his research, his policy views, and his interventions in public debate. With this ambitious new work, Edward Nelson closes the gap: Milton Friedman and Economic Debate in the United States is the defining narrative on the famed economist, the first to grapple comprehensively with Friedman’s research output, economic framework, and legacy. This two-volume account provides a foundational introduction to Friedman’s role in several major economic debates that took place in the United States between 1932 and 1972. This first volume in the two-volume account takes the story through 1960, covering the period in which Friedman began and developed his research on monetary policy. It traces Friedman’s thinking from his professional beginnings in the 1930s as a combative young microeconomist, to his wartime years on the staff of the US Treasury, and his emergence in the postwar period as a leading proponent of monetary policy. As a fellow monetary economist, Nelson writes from a unique vantage point, drawing on both his own expertise in monetary analysis and his deep familiarity with Friedman’s writings. Using extensive documentation, the book weaves together Friedman’s research contributions and his engagement in public debate, providing an unparalleled analysis of Friedman’s views on the economic developments of his day. “Magisterial . . . For anyone wanting to understand the ideas that Friedman generated over his research career, this book is, and will remain for some time, the essential guide.” —Financial World