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The Morocco Policy Analysis Model: Theoretical Framework and Policy Scenarios

The Morocco Policy Analysis Model: Theoretical Framework and Policy Scenarios
Author: Aya Achour
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 47
Release: 2021-04-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513573322

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The Morocco Policy Analysis model (MOPAM) was created in the Bank Al-Maghrib to simulate the impact of external developments, domestic macroeconomic policies, and structural reforms on key macroeconomic aggregates. We describe its structure and demonstrate its operation on two medium-term scenarios: (1) fiscal consolidation to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio and (2) the effects of the COVID-19 shock, including the endogenous fiscal and monetary policy response.


Morocco: A Practical Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis in a Country with Capital Controls

Morocco: A Practical Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis in a Country with Capital Controls
Author: Mokhtar Benlamine
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 29
Release: 2018-02-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484342607

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The Central Bank of Morocco has been working on developing a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to support a gradual move toward a more flexible exchange rate regime and the eventual adoption of a full-fledged inflation-targeting (IT) regime. At the center of the FPAS is a quarterly projection model that was tailored for two different types of exchange rate regimes. Presently, the fixed exchange rate model version is to be used during the pre-IT period, while the flexible exchange rate model version is to be used to prepare alternative scenarios for monetary policy decision makers to discuss the potential policy implications of shocks under an IT regime.


Theory and Practice in Policy Analysis

Theory and Practice in Policy Analysis
Author: M. Granger Morgan
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 608
Release: 2017-10-12
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1316886999

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Many books instruct readers on how to use the tools of policy analysis. This book is different. Its primary focus is on helping readers to look critically at the strengths, limitations, and the underlying assumptions analysts make when they use standard tools or problem framings. Using examples, many of which involve issues in science and technology, the book exposes readers to some of the critical issues of taste, professional responsibility, ethics, and values that are associated with policy analysis and research. Topics covered include policy problems formulated in terms of utility maximization such as benefit-cost, decision, and multi-attribute analysis, issues in the valuation of intangibles, uncertainty in policy analysis, selected topics in risk analysis and communication, limitations and alternatives to the paradigm of utility maximization, issues in behavioral decision theory, issues related to organizations and multiple agents, and selected topics in policy advice and policy analysis for government.


Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries

Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 74
Release: 2015-10-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498344062

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Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.


Morocco's Quest for Stronger and Inclusive Growth

Morocco's Quest for Stronger and Inclusive Growth
Author: Roberto Cardarelli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 244
Release: 2023-10-09
Genre: Economic development
ISBN:

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Throughout the past two decades, Morocco has faced several external and domestic shocks, including large swings in international oil prices, regional geopolitical tensions, severe droughts, and most recently the impact of the pandemic and the economic fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Despite rough waters, the government stayed the course and remained focused not only on immediate stability, but also on the long-term needs of the Moroccan economy. This involved the adoption of a series of difficult measures, like the elimination of energy subsidies, and a strategy aimed at improving the country's infrastructure, diversifying the production and export bases by attracting foreign investment, and modernizing the governance structure of the public administration. The road to higher and more inclusive growth, however, remains steep. Despite gains in poverty reduction, literacy and lifespans, Morocco economy continues to face a high share of inactive youth, large gaps in economic opportunities for women, a fragmented social protection system, and remaining barriers to private sector development. An ambitious reform agenda is needed to better meet the aspirations of Moroccans, by making economic growth stronger, more resilient and more inclusive, particularly to provide greater opportunities for young, women, and entrepreneurs. Morocco appears well positioned to address these challenges, and indeed, the country has recently sought to define and pursue a new "model of development", through national debates and a more inclusive approach to reform. Significant reforms have been announced recently that revamp both the social protection system and the SOEs business model. This book draws lessons from the reforms Morocco has implemented in the past few decades and charts a course for Morocco by addressing key areas for reform.


Morocco

Morocco
Author: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 109
Release: 2022-12-19
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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The Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) has implemented expanded and comprehensive transparency practices in a number of areas, notably related to the primary mandate of price stability and the shared mandate of financial stability. This reflects the BAM’s public commitment to transparency anchored in the new 2019 BAM Law and articulated as a strategic orientation under the quinquennial plan for 2019-2023. This level of transparency enabled the BAM to gain the noteworthy trust of the stakeholders met by the mission and to safeguard its autonomy.


The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity

The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity
Author: Richard Hemming
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 62
Release: 2002-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can turn negative (i.e., that fiscal contractions can be expansionary). The paper concludes that fiscal multipliers are overwhelmingly positive but small. However, there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers.


Global Waves of Debt

Global Waves of Debt
Author: M. Ayhan Kose
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 403
Release: 2021-03-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1464815453

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The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.


Taking Stock of IMF Capacity Development on Monetary Policy Forecasting and Policy Analysis Systems

Taking Stock of IMF Capacity Development on Monetary Policy Forecasting and Policy Analysis Systems
Author: John C. Odling-Smee
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 68
Release: 1993
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 155775327X

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This paper takes stock of forecasting and policy analysis system capacity development (FPAS CD), drawing extensively on the experience and lessons learned from developing FPAS capacity in the central banks. By sharing the insights gained during FPAS CD delivery and outlining the typical tools developed in the process, the paper aims to facilitate the understanding of FPAS CD within the IMF and to inform future CD on building macroeconomic frameworks. As such, the paper offers a qualitative assessment of the experience with FPAS CD delivery and the use of FPAS in the decision-making process in central banks.


Monetary Policy Implementation: Operational Issues for Countries with Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks

Monetary Policy Implementation: Operational Issues for Countries with Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks
Author: Nils Mæhle
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 57
Release: 2020-02-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513526855

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This paper discusses operational issues for countries that want to reform their monetary policy frameworks. It argues that stabilizing short-term interest rates on a day-to-day basis has significant advantages, and thus that short-term interest rates, not reserve money, in most cases should be the daily operating target, including for countries relying on a money targeting policy strategy. The paper discusses how a policy formulation framework based on monetary aggregates can be combined with an operational framework that ensures more stable and predictable short-term rates to enhance policy transmission. It also discusses how to best configure an interest-rate-based operational framework when markets are underdeveloped and liqudity management capacity is weak.