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The Mathematics of the Uncertain

The Mathematics of the Uncertain
Author: Eduardo Gil
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 897
Release: 2018-02-28
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 3319738488

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This book is a tribute to Professor Pedro Gil, who created the Department of Statistics, OR and TM at the University of Oviedo, and a former President of the Spanish Society of Statistics and OR (SEIO). In more than eighty original contributions, it illustrates the extent to which Mathematics can help manage uncertainty, a factor that is inherent to real life. Today it goes without saying that, in order to model experiments and systems and to analyze related outcomes and data, it is necessary to consider formal ideas and develop scientific approaches and techniques for dealing with uncertainty. Mathematics is crucial in this endeavor, as this book demonstrates. As Professor Pedro Gil highlighted twenty years ago, there are several well-known mathematical branches for this purpose, including Mathematics of chance (Probability and Statistics), Mathematics of communication (Information Theory), and Mathematics of imprecision (Fuzzy Sets Theory and others). These branches often intertwine, since different sources of uncertainty can coexist, and they are not exhaustive. While most of the papers presented here address the three aforementioned fields, some hail from other Mathematical disciplines such as Operations Research; others, in turn, put the spotlight on real-world studies and applications. The intended audience of this book is mainly statisticians, mathematicians and computer scientists, but practitioners in these areas will certainly also find the book a very interesting read.


Do Dice Play God?

Do Dice Play God?
Author: Ian Stewart
Publisher: Profile Books
Total Pages: 292
Release: 2019-06-06
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 178283401X

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Uncertainty is everywhere. It lurks in every consideration of the future - the weather, the economy, the sex of an unborn child - even quantities we think that we know such as populations or the transit of the planets contain the possibility of error. It's no wonder that, throughout that history, we have attempted to produce rigidly defined areas of uncertainty - we prefer the surprise party to the surprise asteroid. We began our quest to make certain an uncertain world by reading omens in livers, tea leaves, and the stars. However, over the centuries, driven by curiosity, competition, and a desire be better gamblers, pioneering mathematicians and scientists began to reduce wild uncertainties to tame distributions of probability and statistical inferences. But, even as unknown unknowns became known unknowns, our pessimism made us believe that some problems were unsolvable and our intuition misled us. Worse, as we realized how omnipresent and varied uncertainty is, we encountered chaos, quantum mechanics, and the limitations of our predictive power. Bestselling author Professor Ian Stewart explores the history and mathematics of uncertainty. Touching on gambling, probability, statistics, financial and weather forecasts, censuses, medical studies, chaos, quantum physics, and climate, he makes one thing clear: a reasonable probability is the only certainty.


Uncertainty Theory

Uncertainty Theory
Author: Baoding Liu
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 263
Release: 2007-09-14
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 3540731652

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This book provides a self-contained, comprehensive and up-to-date presentation of uncertainty theory. The purpose is to equip the readers with an axiomatic approach to deal with uncertainty. For this new edition the entire text has been totally rewritten. The chapters on chance theory and uncertainty theory are completely new. Mathematicians, researchers, engineers, designers, and students will find this work a stimulating and useful reference.


Mathematics of Uncertainty

Mathematics of Uncertainty
Author: Hans Bandemer
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 199
Release: 2006
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 3540284575

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"Mathematics of Uncertainty" provides the basic ideas and foundations of uncertainty, covering the fields of mathematics in which uncertainty, variability, imprecision and fuzziness of data are of importance. This introductory book describes the basic ideas of the mathematical fields of uncertainty from simple interpolation to wavelets, from error propagation to fuzzy sets and neural networks. The book presents the treatment of problems of interpolation and approximation, as well as observation fuzziness which can essentially influence the preciseness and reliability of statements on functional relationships. The notions of randomness and probability are examined as a model for the variability of observation and measurement results. Besides these basic ideas the book also presents methods of qualitative data analysis such as cluster analysis and classification, and of evaluation of functional relationships such as regression analysis and quantitative fuzzy data analysis.


Uncertain Differential Equations

Uncertain Differential Equations
Author: Kai Yao
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 166
Release: 2016-08-29
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 3662527294

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This book introduces readers to the basic concepts of and latest findings in the area of differential equations with uncertain factors. It covers the analytic method and numerical method for solving uncertain differential equations, as well as their applications in the field of finance. Furthermore, the book provides a number of new potential research directions for uncertain differential equation. It will be of interest to researchers, engineers and students in the fields of mathematics, information science, operations research, industrial engineering, computer science, artificial intelligence, automation, economics, and management science.


Mathematics of Uncertainty

Mathematics of Uncertainty
Author: Hans Bandemer
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 199
Release: 2008-01-25
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 3540312285

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"Mathematics of Uncertainty" provides the basic ideas and foundations of uncertainty, covering the fields of mathematics in which uncertainty, variability, imprecision and fuzziness of data are of importance. This introductory book describes the basic ideas of the mathematical fields of uncertainty from simple interpolation to wavelets, from error propagation to fuzzy sets and neural networks. The book presents the treatment of problems of interpolation and approximation, as well as observation fuzziness which can essentially influence the preciseness and reliability of statements on functional relationships. The notions of randomness and probability are examined as a model for the variability of observation and measurement results. Besides these basic ideas the book also presents methods of qualitative data analysis such as cluster analysis and classification, and of evaluation of functional relationships such as regression analysis and quantitative fuzzy data analysis.


Uncertainty

Uncertainty
Author: William Briggs
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 274
Release: 2016-07-15
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 3319397567

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This book presents a philosophical approach to probability and probabilistic thinking, considering the underpinnings of probabilistic reasoning and modeling, which effectively underlie everything in data science. The ultimate goal is to call into question many standard tenets and lay the philosophical and probabilistic groundwork and infrastructure for statistical modeling. It is the first book devoted to the philosophy of data aimed at working scientists and calls for a new consideration in the practice of probability and statistics to eliminate what has been referred to as the "Cult of Statistical Significance." The book explains the philosophy of these ideas and not the mathematics, though there are a handful of mathematical examples. The topics are logically laid out, starting with basic philosophy as related to probability, statistics, and science, and stepping through the key probabilistic ideas and concepts, and ending with statistical models. Its jargon-free approach asserts that standard methods, such as out-of-the-box regression, cannot help in discovering cause. This new way of looking at uncertainty ties together disparate fields — probability, physics, biology, the “soft” sciences, computer science — because each aims at discovering cause (of effects). It broadens the understanding beyond frequentist and Bayesian methods to propose a Third Way of modeling.


Principles of Uncertainty

Principles of Uncertainty
Author: Joseph B. Kadane
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 525
Release: 2020-11-25
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1351683365

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Praise for the first edition: Principles of Uncertainty is a profound and mesmerising book on the foundations and principles of subjectivist or behaviouristic Bayesian analysis. ... the book is a pleasure to read. And highly recommended for teaching as it can be used at many different levels. ... A must-read for sure!—Christian Robert, CHANCE It's a lovely book, one that I hope will be widely adopted as a course textbook. —Michael Jordan, University of California, Berkeley, USA Like the prize-winning first edition, Principles of Uncertainty, Second Edition is an accessible, comprehensive text on the theory of Bayesian Statistics written in an appealing, inviting style, and packed with interesting examples. It presents an introduction to the subjective Bayesian approach which has played a pivotal role in game theory, economics, and the recent boom in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. This new edition has been updated throughout and features new material on Nonparametric Bayesian Methods, the Dirichlet distribution, a simple proof of the central limit theorem, and new problems. Key Features: First edition won the 2011 DeGroot Prize Well-written introduction to theory of Bayesian statistics Each of the introductory chapters begins by introducing one new concept or assumption Uses "just-in-time mathematics"—the introduction to mathematical ideas just before they are applied


The Uncertain Reasoner's Companion

The Uncertain Reasoner's Companion
Author: J. B. Paris
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 28
Release: 1994
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 9780521460897

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This is an introduction to the mathematical foundations of uncertain reasoning.


Estimators for Uncertain Dynamic Systems

Estimators for Uncertain Dynamic Systems
Author: A.I. Matasov
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 428
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 9401153221

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When solving the control and design problems in aerospace and naval engi neering, energetics, economics, biology, etc., we need to know the state of investigated dynamic processes. The presence of inherent uncertainties in the description of these processes and of noises in measurement devices leads to the necessity to construct the estimators for corresponding dynamic systems. The estimators recover the required information about system state from mea surement data. An attempt to solve the estimation problems in an optimal way results in the formulation of different variational problems. The type and complexity of these variational problems depend on the process model, the model of uncertainties, and the estimation performance criterion. A solution of variational problem determines an optimal estimator. Howerever, there exist at least two reasons why we use nonoptimal esti mators. The first reason is that the numerical algorithms for solving the corresponding variational problems can be very difficult for numerical imple mentation. For example, the dimension of these algorithms can be very high.