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The Long-run Relationship Between House Prices and Rents

The Long-run Relationship Between House Prices and Rents
Author: Joshua Hojvat Gallin
Publisher:
Total Pages: 48
Release: 2004
Genre: Housing
ISBN:

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"I show that when house prices are high relative to rents (that is, when the rent-price ratio is low) changes in real rents tend to be larger than usual and changes in real prices tend to be smaller than usual. Standard error-correction models provide inconclusive results about the predictive power of the rent-price ratio at a quarterly frequency. I use a long-horizon regression approach to show that the rent-price ratio helps predict changes in real rents and real prices over three-year periods. This result withstands the inclusion of a measure of the user cost of capital. I show that a long-horizon regression approach can yield biased estimates of the degree of error correction if prices have a unit root but do not follow a random walk. I construct bootstrap distributions to conduct appropriate inference in the presence of this bias. The results lend empirical support to the view that the rent-price ratio is an indicator of valuation in the housing market"--Abstract.


Fundamental Drivers of House Prices in Advanced Economies

Fundamental Drivers of House Prices in Advanced Economies
Author: Ms.Nan Geng
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 24
Release: 2018-07-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484367626

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House prices in many advanced economies have risen substantially in recent decades. But experience indicates that housing prices can diverge from their long-run equilibrium or sustainable levels, potentially followed by adjustments that impact macroeconomic and financial stability. Therefore there is a need to monitor house prices and assess whether they are sustainable. This paper focuses on fundamentals expected to drive long run trends in house prices, including institutional and structural factors. The scale of potential valuation gaps is gauged on the basis of a cross-country panel analysis of house prices in 20 OECD countries.


Assessing High House Prices

Assessing High House Prices
Author: Charles P. Himmelberg
Publisher:
Total Pages: 21
Release: 2005
Genre: Housing
ISBN:

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"We construct measures of the annual cost of single-family housing for 46 metropolitan areas in the United States over the last 25 years and compare them with local rents and incomes as a way of judging the level of housing prices. Conventional metrics like the growth rate of house prices, the price-to-rent ratio, and the price-to-income ratio can be misleading because they fail to account both for the time series pattern of real long-term interest rates and predictable differences in the long-run growth rates of house prices across local markets. These factors are especially important in recent years because house prices are theoretically more sensitive to interest rates when rates are already low, and more sensitive still in those cities where the long-run rate of house price growth is high. During the 1980s, our measures show that houses looked most overvalued in many of the same cities that subsequently experienced the largest house price declines. We find that from the trough of 1995 to 2004, the cost of owning rose somewhat relative to the cost of renting, but not, in most cities, to levels that made houses look overvalued"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.


The Housing Boom and Bust

The Housing Boom and Bust
Author: Thomas Sowell
Publisher: Basic Books (AZ)
Total Pages: 194
Release: 2009-05-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0465018807

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Explains how we got into the current economic disaster that developed out of the economics and politics of the housing boom and bust. The "creative" financing of home mortgages and "creative" marketing of financial securities based on these mortgages to countries around the world, are part of the story of how a financial house of cards was built up--and then collapsed.


Economic Theory and the Cities

Economic Theory and the Cities
Author: J. Vernon Henderson
Publisher: Academic Press
Total Pages: 289
Release: 2014-06-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1483294889

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The Second Edition of Economic Theory and the Cities has been revised and expanded with both the graduate student and the practicing professional in mind. Providing a state-of-the-art synthesis of important theoretical topics in urban economics, the volume emphasizes the fundamental links between urban economics and new developments in mainstream economic theory. From the Preface: In this book I present what I believe to be the most important theoretical topics in urban economics. Since urban economics is a rather diffuse field, any presentation is necessarily selective, reflecting personal tastes and opinions. Given that, I note on what basis I chose the material that is presented and developed.First, the basic spatial model of a monocentric city is presented, since it lays the foundation for thinking about many of the topics in urban economics. The consideration of space and spatial proximity is one central feature of urban economics that distinguishes it from other branches of economics. The positive and negative externalities generated by activities locating in close spatial proximity are central to analysis of urban phenomena. However, in writing this book I have tried to maintain strong links between urban economics and recent developments in mainstream economic theory. This is reflected in the chapters that follow, which present models of aspects of the most important topics in urban economics--externalities, housing, transportation, local public finance, suburbanization, and community development. In these chapters, concepts from developments in economics over the last decade or so are woven into the traditional approaches to modeling these topics. Examples are the role of contracts in housing markets and community development; portfolio analysis in analyzing housing tenure choice and investment decisions; the time-inconsistency problem in formulating long-term economic relationships between communities, developers, and local governments; search in housing markets; and dynamic analysis in housing markets and traffic scheduling. The book ends with chapters on general equilibrium models of systems of cities, demonstrating how individual cities fit into an economy and interact with each other. This book is written both as a reference book for people in the profession and for use as a graduate text. In this edition, a strong effort has been made to present the material at a level and in a style suitable for graduate students. The edition has greatly expanded the sections on housing and local public finance so these sections could be studied profitably by a broad range of graduate students. Recommended prerequisites are an undergraduate urban economics course and a year of graduate-level microeconomic theory. It is possible that the book can be used in very advanced undergraduate courses if the students are well versed in microeconomics and are quantitatively oriented. Focus on the basic spatial model of the monocentric city Expanded sections on housing and local public finance Discussion of the critical role of spatial proximity of different economic activities, such as housing, transportation, and community development


Fundamental Drivers of House Prices in Advanced Economies

Fundamental Drivers of House Prices in Advanced Economies
Author: Ms.Nan Geng
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 24
Release: 2018-07-18
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484369122

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House prices in many advanced economies have risen substantially in recent decades. But experience indicates that housing prices can diverge from their long-run equilibrium or sustainable levels, potentially followed by adjustments that impact macroeconomic and financial stability. Therefore there is a need to monitor house prices and assess whether they are sustainable. This paper focuses on fundamentals expected to drive long run trends in house prices, including institutional and structural factors. The scale of potential valuation gaps is gauged on the basis of a cross-country panel analysis of house prices in 20 OECD countries.


Challenges of the Housing Economy

Challenges of the Housing Economy
Author: Colin Jones
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 337
Release: 2012-05-29
Genre: Law
ISBN: 0470672331

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This timely book addresses key challenges faced by policy makers and the house-building industry in a post-credit crunch world. It examines the implications for households, the housing market, the economy, as well as for government's policy choices. Challenges of the Housing Economy: an international perspective brings together experts from around the world to examine recent housing market trends. The contributions reveal common long-term trends in housing markets worldwide. Despite differences in supply conditions and the role of planning, there is a trend toward rising house prices that has created significant barriers to home ownership for young households while increasing the wealth of older generations. The financial crisis had a differential impact on housing markets but in many countries where mortgage finance became severely constrained, house prices fell and there was a dramatic fall in housing construction. The falls in house prices in these countries have ostensibly improved affordability but the housing markets have been dominated by the lowering of loan to values applicable to new mortgages which has further raised the hurdles to potential first-time purchasers. At the same time as young households are increasingly rationed out of owner-occupation, public sector expenditure cut-backs in many countries result in limited new social housing. Instead, value for money imperatives will mean new funding models for affordable housing that require greater use of public-private partnerships. The private rented sector could potentially meet the demand for the new generation of long-term renters. However, there are doubts - in the UK at least - that this sector will be able to expand significantly or provide an appropriate type and standard of housing. This is an essential advanced text for students and researchers of land economy and land management; property and real estate; housing policy; and urban studies.


The Great Housing Bubble

The Great Housing Bubble
Author: Lawrence Roberts
Publisher: Monterey Cypress LLC
Total Pages: 251
Release: 2008
Genre: Art
ISBN: 0615226930

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A detailed analysis of the psychological and mechanical causes of the biggest rally, and subsequent fall, of housing prices ever recorded. Examines the causes of the breathtaking rise in prices and the catastrophic fall that ensued to answer the question on every homeowner's mind: "Why did house prices fall?"--Page 4 of cover


Prices, Rents, and Homeownership

Prices, Rents, and Homeownership
Author: Philippe Bracke
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2012
Genre:
ISBN:

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This thesis includes three self-contained chapters whose common theme is the analysis of house price and rent movements, and how these movements influence the economic actions of individuals. In Chapter 1, I analyse a micro dataset on housing sales and rentals in Central London. I show that the ratio between prices and rents differ across property types: bigger and better located properties have higher price-rent ratios. These differences in price-rent ratios can be explained through a hedging model where households avoid rent risk by increasing their demand for homeownership. Consistently with this hypothesis, I find that rental prices for bigger properties and properties in more expensive neighbourhoods are not growing significantly faster than for other properties, but are more volatile. In Chapter 2, together with my two co-authors Christian Hilber and Olmo Silva, I study the relationship between homeownership and entrepreneurship by exploiting the longitudinal dimension of the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and constructing a detailed monthly-spell dataset that tracks individuals' job histories and tenure choices, coupled with other time-varying characteristics. Our fixed-effect estimates show that purchasing a house reduces the likelihood of starting a business by 20-25%. This result is driven by homeowners with mortgages and persists for several years after entering homeownership. The negative relationship can be rationalised by portfolio considerations: leveraged housing investments crowd out entrepreneurial investments. Alternative explanations based on credit constraints find little support in our data. In Chapter 3, I analyse the duration of house price upturns and downturns in the last 40 years for 19 OECD countries and provide two results. First, upturns display duration dependence: they are more likely to end as their duration increases. Second, downturns display lagged duration dependence: they are less likely to end if the previous upturn was particularly long. Both these facts are consistent with a boom-bust view of housing price dynamics, where booms represent departures from fundamentals that are increasingly difficult to sustain, and busts serve as readjustment periods.