The Logic of Uncertainty and Situational Understanding
| Author | : Newton Howard |
| Publisher | : CADS |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 1999 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : 9780972383493 |
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Understanding Uncertainty
| Author | : Dennis V. Lindley |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 268 |
| Release | : 2006-08-28 |
| Genre | : Mathematics |
| ISBN | : 0470055472 |
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A lively and informal introduction to the role of uncertainty and probability in people's lives from an everyday perspective From television game shows and gambling techniques to weather forecasting and the financial markets, virtually every aspect of modern life involves situations in which the outcomes are uncertain and of varying qualities. But as noted statistician Dennis Lindley writes in this distinctive text, "We want you to face up to uncertainty, not hide it away under false concepts, but to understand it and, moreover, to use the recent discoveries so that you can act in the face of uncertainty more sensibly than would have been possible without the skill." Accessibly written at an elementary level, this outstanding text examines uncertainty in various everyday situations and introduces readers to three rules--craftily laid out in the book--that prove uncertainty can be handled with as much confidence as ordinary logic. Combining a concept of utility with probability, the book insightfully demonstrates how uncertainty can be measured and used in everyday life, especially in decision-making and science. With a focus on understanding and using probability calculations, Understanding Uncertainty demystifies probability and: * Explains in straightforward detail the logic of uncertainty, its truths, and its falsehoods * Explores what has been learned in the twentieth century about uncertainty * Provides a logical, sensible method for acting in the face of uncertainty * Presents vignettes of great discoveries made in the twentieth century * Shows readers how to discern if another person--whether a lawyer, politician, scientist, or journalist--is talking sense, posing the right questions, or obtaining sound answers Requiring only a basic understanding of mathematical concepts and operations, Understanding Uncertainty is useful as a text for all students who have probability or statistics as part of their course, even at the most introductory level.
Cyber Situational Awareness
| Author | : Sushil Jajodia |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 252 |
| Release | : 2009-10-03 |
| Genre | : Computers |
| ISBN | : 144190140X |
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Motivation for the Book This book seeks to establish the state of the art in the cyber situational awareness area and to set the course for future research. A multidisciplinary group of leading researchers from cyber security, cognitive science, and decision science areas elab orate on the fundamental challenges facing the research community and identify promising solution paths. Today, when a security incident occurs, the top three questions security admin istrators would ask are in essence: What has happened? Why did it happen? What should I do? Answers to the ?rst two questions form the core of Cyber Situational Awareness. Whether the last question can be satisfactorily answered is greatly de pendent upon the cyber situational awareness capability of an enterprise. A variety of computer and network security research topics (especially some sys tems security topics) belong to or touch the scope of Cyber Situational Awareness. However, the Cyber Situational Awareness capability of an enterprise is still very limited for several reasons: • Inaccurate and incomplete vulnerability analysis, intrusion detection, and foren sics. • Lack of capability to monitor certain microscopic system/attack behavior. • Limited capability to transform/fuse/distill information into cyber intelligence. • Limited capability to handle uncertainty. • Existing system designs are not very “friendly” to Cyber Situational Awareness.
Uncertainty Reasoning for Service-based Situational Awareness Information on the Semantic Web
| Author | : Stephen C. Dinkel |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 370 |
| Release | : 2012 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
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Accurate situational assessment is key to any decision maker and especially crucial in military command and control, air traffic control, and complex system decision making. Endsley described three dependent levels of situational awareness, (1) perception, (2) understanding, and (3) projection. This research was focused on Endsley's second-level situational awareness (understanding) as it applies to service-oriented information technology environments in the context of the Semantic Web. Specifically, this research addressed the problem of developing accurate situational assessments related to the status or health of information technology (IT) services, especially composite, dynamic IT services, when some of Endsley's first level (perceived) information was inaccurate or incomplete. Research had not adequately addressed the problem of how to work with inaccuracy and situational awareness information in order to produce accurate situational assessments for Semantic Web services. This problem becomes especially important as the current Web moves towards a Semantic Web where information technology is expected to be represented and processed by machines. Costa's probabilistic Web ontology language (PR-OWL), as extended by Carvalho (PR-OWL2), is a framework for storage of and reasoning with uncertainty information as part of the Semantic Web. This study used Costa's PR-OWL framework, as extended by Carvalho, to build an ontology that supports reasoning with service-oriented information in the context of the Semantic Web and then assessed the effectiveness of the developed ontology through the use of competency questions, as described by Gruninger and Fox and verified through the use of an automated reasoner. This research resulted in a Web Ontology Language for Services (OWL-S), PR-OWL2 based ontology, and its associated Multi-Entity Bayesian Network which are flexible and highly effective in calculating situational assessments through the propagation of posterior probabilities using Bayesian logic. Specifically, this research (1) identifies sufficient information required for effective situational awareness reasoning, (2) specifies the predicates and semantics necessary to represent service components and dependencies, (3) applies Multi-Entity Bayesian Network to reason with situational awareness information, (4) ensures the correctness and consistency of the situational awareness ontology, and (5) accurately estimates posterior probabilities consistent with situational awareness information.
The Logic of Human Mind, Self-Awareness & Way We Think
| Author | : John Dewey |
| Publisher | : e-artnow |
| Total Pages | : 840 |
| Release | : 2019-12-18 |
| Genre | : Psychology |
| ISBN | : |
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Musaicum Books presents to you this meticulously edited John Dewey collection. This ebook has been designed and formatted to the highest digital standards and adjusted for readability on all devices. Content: Psychology and Social Practice Psychological Doctrine and Philosophical Teaching Psychology as Philosophic Method The New Psychology How We Think The Reflex Arc Concept in Psychology The Psychology of Effort Creative Intelligence: Essays in the Pragmatic Attitude et al. The Ego as Cause The Terms 'Conscious' and 'Consciousness' On Some Current Conceptions of the term 'Self' The Psychological Standpoint The Theory of Emotion: Emotional Attitudes & the Significance of Emotions The Psychology of Infant Language Knowledge and Speech Reaction Human Nature and Conduct: An Introduction to Social Psychology
Subjective Logic
| Author | : Audun Jøsang |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 355 |
| Release | : 2016-10-27 |
| Genre | : Computers |
| ISBN | : 3319423371 |
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This is the first comprehensive treatment of subjective logic and all its operations. The author developed the approach, and in this book he first explains subjective opinions, opinion representation, and decision-making under vagueness and uncertainty, and he then offers a full definition of subjective logic, harmonising the key notations and formalisms, concluding with chapters on trust networks and subjective Bayesian networks, which when combined form general subjective networks. The author shows how real-world situations can be realistically modelled with regard to how situations are perceived, with conclusions that more correctly reflect the ignorance and uncertainties that result from partially uncertain input arguments. The book will help researchers and practitioners to advance, improve and apply subjective logic to build powerful artificial reasoning models and tools for solving real-world problems. A good grounding in discrete mathematics is a prerequisite.
Modeling Human and Organizational Behavior
| Author | : Panel on Modeling Human Behavior and Command Decision Making: Representations for Military Simulations |
| Publisher | : National Academies Press |
| Total Pages | : 433 |
| Release | : 1998-08-14 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0309523893 |
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Simulations are widely used in the military for training personnel, analyzing proposed equipment, and rehearsing missions, and these simulations need realistic models of human behavior. This book draws together a wide variety of theoretical and applied research in human behavior modeling that can be considered for use in those simulations. It covers behavior at the individual, unit, and command level. At the individual soldier level, the topics covered include attention, learning, memory, decisionmaking, perception, situation awareness, and planning. At the unit level, the focus is on command and control. The book provides short-, medium-, and long-term goals for research and development of more realistic models of human behavior.
Controlling Uncertainty
| Author | : Magda Osman |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 322 |
| Release | : 2011-07-18 |
| Genre | : Psychology |
| ISBN | : 144435180X |
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Controlling Uncertainty: Decision Making and Learning in Complex Worlds reviews and discusses the most current research relating to the ways we can control the uncertain world around us. Features reviews and discussions of the most current research in a number of fields relevant to controlling uncertainty, such as psychology, neuroscience, computer science and engineering Presents a new framework that is designed to integrate a variety of disparate fields of research Represents the first book of its kind to provide a general overview of work related to understanding control
Knowledge Representation and Reasoning Under Uncertainty
| Author | : Michael Masuch |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 252 |
| Release | : 1994-06-28 |
| Genre | : Computers |
| ISBN | : 9783540580959 |
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This volume is based on the International Conference Logic at Work, held in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, in December 1992. The 14 papers in this volume are selected from 86 submissions and 8 invited contributions and are all devoted to knowledge representation and reasoning under uncertainty, which are core issues of formal artificial intelligence. Nowadays, logic is not any longer mainly associated to mathematical and philosophical problems. The term applied logic has a far wider meaning, as numerous applications of logical methods, particularly in computer science, artificial intelligence, or formal linguistics, testify. As demonstrated also in this volume, a variety of non-standard logics gained increased importance for knowledge representation and reasoning under uncertainty.
Burying Uncertainty
| Author | : K. S. Shrader-Frechette |
| Publisher | : Univ of California Press |
| Total Pages | : 363 |
| Release | : 1993-12-03 |
| Genre | : Nature |
| ISBN | : 0520913965 |
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Shrader-Frechette looks at current U.S. government policy regarding the nation's high-level radioactive waste both scientifically and ethically. What should be done with our nation's high-level radioactive waste, which will remain hazardous for thousands of years? This is one of the most pressing problems faced by the nuclear power industry, and current U.S. government policy is to bury "radwastes" in specially designed deep repositories. K. S. Shrader-Frechette argues that this policy is profoundly misguided on both scientific and ethical grounds. Scientifically—because we cannot trust the precision of 10,000-year predictions that promise containment of the waste. Ethically—because geological disposal ignores the rights of present and future generations to equal treatment, due process, and free informed consent. Shrader-Frechette focuses her argument on the world's first proposed high-level radioactive waste facility at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Analyzing a mass of technical literature, she demonstrates the weaknesses in the professional risk-assessors' arguments that claim the site is sufficiently safe for such a plan. We should postpone the question of geological disposal for at least a century and use monitored, retrievable, above-ground storage of the waste until then. Her message regarding radwaste is clear: what you can't see can hurt you.
