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The Scarcity Effect of Quantitative Easing on Repo Rates: Evidence from the Euro Area

The Scarcity Effect of Quantitative Easing on Repo Rates: Evidence from the Euro Area
Author: William Arrata
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 45
Release: 2018-12-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484386914

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Most short-term interest rates in the Euro area are below the European Central Bank deposit facility rate, the rate at which the central bank remunerates banks’ excess reserves. This unexpected development coincided with the start of the Public Sector Purchase Program (PSPP). In this paper, we explore empirically the interactions between the PSPP and repo rates. We document different channels through which asset purchases may affect them. Using proprietary data from PSPP purchases and repo transactions for specific (“special") securities, we assess the scarcity channel of PSPP and its impact on repo rates. We estimate that purchasing 1 percent of a bond outstanding is associated with a decline of its repo rate of 0.78 bps. Using an instrumental variable, we find that the full effect may be up to six times higher.


Inspecting the Mechanism of Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area

Inspecting the Mechanism of Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area
Author: Ralph S. J. Koijen
Publisher:
Total Pages: 45
Release: 2019
Genre: Inflation targeting
ISBN:

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Using new data on security-level portfolio holdings by investor type and across countries in the euro area, we study portfolio rebalancing during the European Central Bank's (ECB) purchase programme that started in March 2015. To quantify changes in risk concentration, we estimate the evolution of the distribution of duration, government, and corporate credit risk exposures across investor sectors and regions until the last quarter of 2017. Using these micro data, we show that 60% of ECB purchases are sold by non-euro area investors, and we do not find evidence that risks get concentrated in certain sectors or geographies. We estimate a sector-level asset demand system using instrumental variables to connect the dynamics of portfolio rebalancing to asset prices. Our estimates imply that government yields declined by 47bp, on average, but the estimates range from -28bp to -57bp across countries.


Quantitative Easing and Its Impact in the US, Japan, the UK and Europe

Quantitative Easing and Its Impact in the US, Japan, the UK and Europe
Author: Kjell Hausken
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 129
Release: 2013-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1461496462

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This volume empirically analyzes the effects of quantitative easing (QE) on interest rates and the economy in the US, Japan, UK and Europe. Using an event-study methodology, the authors find that the measures undertaken by the Federal Reserve and Bank of England, which focus primarily on bond purchases, are much more effective in lowering interest rates than those undertaken by the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank, which have relied more heavily on lending to private financial institutions. Using large Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) models they also analyze the impact of QE on the wider economy. They produce no-QE counterfactual forecasts that are compared with their corresponding baseline forecasts, incorporating the effects of QE on government bond spreads. Despite the failure of stimulating economic activities as a whole, the simulation results suggest that the unconventional monetary policies have a positive influence on industrial production in the US, UK and Japan. The authors’ analysis finds that QE contributes to the reduction in unemployment in the US and Japan, and a rise in inflation-expectations in the US, UK and Euro zone. However, evidence on QE’s effect on house prices, stock prices, consumer confidence, and exchange rate, is mixed and thus inconclusive.


Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area - An Event Study Approach

Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area - An Event Study Approach
Author: Florian Urbschat
Publisher:
Total Pages: 40
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:

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We examine the effects of the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) gradually introduced by the European Central Bank from September 2014 onwards. Studying the short-term reaction of financial markets after APP press releases, we analyse the development of bond yields and spreads around these releases. More precisely, we try to estimate different asset price channels by quantifying the cumulative decrease of spreads and by running event regressions for several Euro Area countries. Focusing on the signalling channel, measured by the OIS rate, and the portfolio rebalancing channel, proxied by the conditional bond-OIS spread, we find that the effects in yield and spread reduction were most pronounced for the initial announcement on the Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) but declined afterwards for additional announcements. Possible explanations for this are the declining degree to which the ECB surprised markets and the increasingly burdensome institutional set-up of the APP. While yield reductions were larger for periphery countries' than for core countries' bonds, our evidence suggests that this stronger reduction is mostly due to a decreasing risk component of southern bonds. In fact, once controlling for this implicit credit risk reduction we find rather mild effects from portfolio rebalancing for all countries.


Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP)

Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP)
Author: Andreas Jobst
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 48
Release: 2016-08-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475524471

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More than two years ago the European Central Bank (ECB) adopted a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) to achieve its price stability objective. Negative interest rates have so far supported easier financial conditions and contributed to a modest expansion in credit, demonstrating that the zero lower bound is less binding than previously thought. However, interest rate cuts also weigh on bank profitability. Substantial rate cuts may at some point outweigh the benefits from higher asset values and stronger aggregate demand. Further monetary accommodation may need to rely more on credit easing and an expansion of the ECB’s balance sheet rather than substantial additional reductions in the policy rate.


Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance

Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance
Author: Georgios P. Kouretas
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
Total Pages: 285
Release: 2014-02-20
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 178350756X

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Banking sector transformation, economic growth and inequality and exchange rate arrangements are critical issues whose importance has been highlighted during the recent financial crisis. This volume contains new research on the relationships between economic growth, inequality and the financial sector.


Inflation Expectations

Inflation Expectations
Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 402
Release: 2009-12-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1135179778

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Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.