The Impact Of Demographics On Productivity And Inflation In Japan PDF Download
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Author | : Mr.Niklas J Westelius |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 18 |
Release | : 2017-01-18 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1475569599 |
Download The Impact of Demographics on Productivity and Inflation in Japan Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Is Japan’s aging and, more recently, declining population hampering growth and reflation efforts? Exploiting demographic and economic variation in prefectural data between 1990 and 2007, we find that aging of the working age population has had a significant negative impact on total factor productivity. Moreover, prefectures that aged at a faster pace experienced lower overall inflation, while prefectures with higher population growth experienced higher inflation. The results give strong support to the notion that demographic headwinds can have a non-trivial impact on total factor productivity and deflationary pressures.
Author | : Mr.Fei Han |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 31 |
Release | : 2019-02-15 |
Genre | : Social Science |
ISBN | : 1484396235 |
Download Demographics and the Natural Rate of Interest in Japan Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Japan’s aging and shrinking population could lower the natural rate of interest and, together with low inflation expectations, challenge the Bank of Japan’s efforts to reflate the economy. This paper uses a semi-structural model to estimate the impact of demographics on the natural rate in Japan. We find that demographic change has a significantly negative impact on the natural rate by lowering trend potential growth. We also find that the negative impact has been increasing over time amid stronger demographic headwinds. These findings highlight the importance of boosting potential growth to offset the negative demographic impact and lift the natural rate in Japan.
Author | : Mr.Fei Han |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : |
Release | : 2019 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : 9781498301206 |
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Author | : Ms.Edda Zoli |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 18 |
Release | : 2017-01-18 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1475568894 |
Download Korea’s Challenges Ahead—Lessons from Japan’s Experience Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This paper draws out the parallels between Korea and Japan in terms of demographics, potential growth, balance sheets, asset prices and inflation. Korea’s demographic trends seem to track Japan’s with a lag of about 20 years. Low productivity in the service sector and labor market duality are common to both countries and need to be addressed with structural reforms. While Korea’s corporate balance sheets are stronger than Japan’s in the early 1990s, Korea needs to progress with the restructuring of nonviable firms to avoid the adverse consequences of delayed balance-sheet repair that Japan experienced. Given its strong fiscal balance sheet position, Korea can afford using fiscal policy actively to incentivize corporate restructuring and structural reforms and cushion their possible short-term adverse impact. Korea can prevent bubbles in asset prices that were at the origin of Japan’s initial crisis with the continued use of macroprudential policies. Although Korea does not appear to be headed toward deflation, new econometric analysis presented in the paper suggests that aging will exert a downward drag on its inflation going forward.
Author | : Charles Goodhart |
Publisher | : Springer Nature |
Total Pages | : 260 |
Release | : 2020-08-08 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 3030426572 |
Download The Great Demographic Reversal Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This original and panoramic book proposes that the underlying forces of demography and globalisation will shortly reverse three multi-decade global trends – it will raise inflation and interest rates, but lead to a pullback in inequality. “Whatever the future holds”, the authors argue, “it will be nothing like the past”. Deflationary headwinds over the last three decades have been primarily due to an enormous surge in the world’s available labour supply, owing to very favourable demographic trends and the entry of China and Eastern Europe into the world’s trading system. This book demonstrates how these demographic trends are on the point of reversing sharply, coinciding with a retreat from globalisation. The result? Ageing can be expected to raise inflation and interest rates, bringing a slew of problems for an over-indebted world economy, but is also anticipated to increase the share of labour, so that inequality falls. Covering many social and political factors, as well as those that are more purely macroeconomic, the authors address topics including ageing, dementia, inequality, populism, retirement and debt finance, among others. This book will be of interest and understandable to anyone with an interest on where the world’s economy may be going.
Author | : Alistair Dieppe |
Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
Total Pages | : 552 |
Release | : 2021-06-09 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1464816093 |
Download Global Productivity Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The COVID-19 pandemic struck the global economy after a decade that featured a broad-based slowdown in productivity growth. Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies presents the first comprehensive analysis of the evolution and drivers of productivity growth, examines the effects of COVID-19 on productivity, and discusses a wide range of policies needed to rekindle productivity growth. The book also provides a far-reaching data set of multiple measures of productivity for up to 164 advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies, and it introduces a new sectoral database of productivity. The World Bank has created an extraordinary book on productivity, covering a large group of countries and using a wide variety of data sources. There is an emphasis on emerging and developing economies, whereas the prior literature has concentrated on developed economies. The book seeks to understand growth patterns and quantify the role of (among other things) the reallocation of factors, technological change, and the impact of natural disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic. This book is must-reading for specialists in emerging economies but also provides deep insights for anyone interested in economic growth and productivity. Martin Neil Baily Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Former Chair, U.S. President’s Council of Economic Advisers This is an important book at a critical time. As the book notes, global productivity growth had already been slowing prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and collapses with the pandemic. If we want an effective recovery, we have to understand what was driving these long-run trends. The book presents a novel global approach to examining the levels, growth rates, and drivers of productivity growth. For anyone wanting to understand or influence productivity growth, this is an essential read. Nicholas Bloom William D. Eberle Professor of Economics, Stanford University The COVID-19 pandemic hit a global economy that was already struggling with an adverse pre-existing condition—slow productivity growth. This extraordinarily valuable and timely book brings considerable new evidence that shows the broad-based, long-standing nature of the slowdown. It is comprehensive, with an exceptional focus on emerging market and developing economies. Importantly, it shows how severe disasters (of which COVID-19 is just the latest) typically harm productivity. There are no silver bullets, but the book suggests sensible strategies to improve growth prospects. John Fernald Schroders Chaired Professor of European Competitiveness and Reform and Professor of Economics, INSEAD
Author | : David Bloom |
Publisher | : Rand Corporation |
Total Pages | : 127 |
Release | : 2003-02-13 |
Genre | : Social Science |
ISBN | : 0833033735 |
Download The Demographic Dividend Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
There is long-standing debate on how population growth affects national economies. A new report from Population Matters examines the history of this debate and synthesizes current research on the topic. The authors, led by Harvard economist David Bloom, conclude that population age structure, more than size or growth per se, affects economic development, and that reducing high fertility can create opportunities for economic growth if the right kinds of educational, health, and labor-market policies are in place. The report also examines specific regions of the world and how their differing policy environments have affected the relationship between population change and economic development.
Author | : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 79 |
Release | : 2018-11-28 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484386817 |
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Selected Issues
Author | : Mariana Colacelli |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 21 |
Release | : 2019-07-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1498317472 |
Download Productivity Drag from Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Japan Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Productivity growth in Japan, as in most advanced economies, has moderated. This paper finds supportive evidence for the important role of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in explaining Japan’s modest productivity growth. Results show a substantial dispersion in firm-level productivity growth across sectors and even across firms within the same sector. SMEs, on average, exhibit lower productivity growth than non-SMEs in Japan, with smaller and older SMEs showing particularly low productivity growth. Estimates suggest that boosting productivity growth in all of the worst-performing SMEs could improve overall productivity growth by up to 1.8 percentage points. The SME credit guarantee system, SME financing constraints, demographic factors, and lack of intangible capital investment are discussed as contributors to the slow productivity growth of Japan’s small and old SMEs.
Author | : OECD |
Publisher | : OECD Publishing |
Total Pages | : 162 |
Release | : 2008-08-22 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : 9264043462 |
Download Handbook on Constructing Composite Indicators: Methodology and User Guide Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
A guide for constructing and using composite indicators for policy makers, academics, the media and other interested parties. In particular, this handbook is concerned with indicators which compare and rank country performance.