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The Hidden Cost of Deterrence

The Hidden Cost of Deterrence
Author: Shaun Gregory
Publisher: Potomac Books
Total Pages: 280
Release: 1990
Genre: History
ISBN:

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Despite the classification of relevant information by the nuclear powers, a 1977 study identified over 130 nuclear weapons accidents which occurred between 1950 and 1976; further work has shown evidence of many other accidents. Gregory (research fellow, School of Peace Studies, U. of Bradford) details these events in the US, the Soviet Union and the UK, as well as the emergency plans of the nuclear nations, providing a balanced discussion of the risks and dangers of nuclear weapons accidents. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR


Post-Cold War Conflict Deterrence

Post-Cold War Conflict Deterrence
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 243
Release: 1997-04-02
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 0309175100

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Deterrence as a strategic concept evolved during the Cold War. During that period, deterrence strategy was aimed mainly at preventing aggression against the United States and its close allies by the hostile Communist power centersâ€"the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) and its allies, Communist China and North Korea. In particular, the strategy was devised to prevent aggression involving nuclear attack by the USSR or China. Since the end of the Cold War, the risk of war among the major powers has subsided to the lowest point in modern history. Still, the changing nature of the threats to American and allied security interests has stimulated a considerable broadening of the deterrence concept. Post-Cold War Conflict Deterrence examines the meaning of deterrence in this new environment and identifies key elements of a post-Cold War deterrence strategy and the critical issues in devising such a strategy. It further examines the significance of these findings for the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps. Quantitative and qualitative measures to support judgments about the potential success or failure of deterrence are identified. Such measures will bear on the suitability of the naval forces to meet the deterrence objectives. The capabilities of U.S. naval forces that especially bear on the deterrence objectives also are examined. Finally, the book examines the utility of models, games, and simulations as decision aids in improving the naval forces' understanding of situations in which deterrence must be used and in improving the potential success of deterrence actions.


Understanding Deterrence

Understanding Deterrence
Author: Keith B. Payne
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 136
Release: 2014-06-11
Genre: History
ISBN: 1317980301

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For decades, the rational actor model served as the preferred guide for U.S. deterrence policy. It has been a convenient and comforting guide because it requires little detailed knowledge of an opponent’s unique decision-making process and yet typically provides confident generalizations about how deterrence works. The model tends to postulate common decision-making parameters across the globe to reach generalizations about how deterrence will function and the types of forces that will be "stabilizing" or "destabilizing." Yet a broad spectrum of unique factors can influence an opponent’s perceptions and his calculations, and these are not easily captured by the rational actor model. The absence of uniformity means there can be very few deterrence generalizations generated by the use of the rational actor model that are applicable to the entire range of opponents. Understanding Deterrence considers how factors such as psychology, history, religion, ideology, geography, political structure, culture, proliferation and geopolitics can shape a leadership’s decision-making process, in ways that are specific and unique to each opponent. Understanding Deterrence demonstrates how using a multidisciplinary approach to deterrence analysis can better identify and assess factors that influence an opponent’s decision-making process. This identification and assessment process can facilitate the tailoring of deterrence strategies to specific purposes and result in a higher likelihood of success than strategies guided by the generalizations about opponent decision-making typically contained in the rational actor model. This book was published as a special issue of Comparative Strategy.


Atomic Audit

Atomic Audit
Author: Stephen I. Schwartz
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press
Total Pages: 750
Release: 2011-12-01
Genre: History
ISBN: 9780815722946

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Since 1945, the United States has manufactured and deployed more than 70,000 nuclear weapons to deter and if necessary fight a nuclear war. Some observers believe the absence of a third world war confirms that these weapons were a prudent and cost-effective response to the uncertainty and fear surrounding the Soviet Union's military and political ambitions during the cold war. As early as 1950, nuclear weapons were considered relatively inexpensive— providing "a bigger bang for a buck"—and were thoroughly integrated into U.S. forces on that basis. Yet this assumption was never validated. Indeed, for more than fifty years scant attention has been paid to the enormous costs of this effort—more than $5 trillion thus far—and its short and long-term consequences for the nation. Based on four years of extensive research, Atomic Audit is the first book to document the comprehensive costs of U.S. nuclear weapons, assembling for the first time anywhere the actual and estimated expenditures for the program since its creation in 1940. The authors provide a unique perspective on U.S. nuclear policy and nuclear weapons, tracking their development from the Manhattan Project of World War II to the present day and assessing each aspect of the program, including research, development, testing, and production; deployment; command, control, communications, and intelligence; and defensive measures. They also examine the costs of dismantling nuclear weapons, the management and disposal of large quantities of toxic and radioactive wastes left over from their production, compensation for persons harmed by nuclear weapons activities, nuclear secrecy, and the economic implications of nuclear deterrence. Utilizing archival and newly declassified government documents and data, this richly documented book demonstrates how a variety of factors—the open-ended nature of nuclear deterrence, faulty assumptions about the cost-effectiveness of nuclear weapons, regular misrepresentati


Tailored Deterrence

Tailored Deterrence
Author: Barry R. Schneider
Publisher:
Total Pages: 466
Release: 2012
Genre: Arms control
ISBN: 9780974740386

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Conventional Deterrence

Conventional Deterrence
Author: John J. Mearsheimer
Publisher: Cornell University Press
Total Pages: 298
Release: 1985-08-21
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1501713256

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Conventional Deterrence is a book about the origins of war. Why do nations faced with the prospect of large-scale conventional war opt for or against an offensive strategy? John J. Mearsheimer examines a number of crises that led to major conventional wars to explain why deterrence failed. He focuses first on Allied and German decision making in the years 1939–1940, analyzing why the Allies did not strike first against Germany after declaring war and, conversely, why the Germans did attack the West. Turning to the Middle East, he examines the differences in Israeli and Egyptian strategic doctrines prior to the start of the major conventional conflicts in that region. Mearsheimer then critically assays the relative strengths and weaknesses of NATO and the Warsaw Pact to determine the prospects for conventional deterrence in any future crisis. He is also concerned with examining such relatively technical issues as the impact of precision-guided munitions (PGM) on conventional deterrence and the debate over maneuver versus attrition warfare.Mearsheimer pays considerable attention to questions of military strategy and tactics. Challenging the claim that conventional detrrence is largely a function of the numerical balance of forces, he also takes issue with the school of thought that ascribes deterrence failures to the dominance of "offensive" weaponry. In addition to examining the military consideration underlying deterrence, he also analyzes the interaction between those military factors and the broader political considerations that move a nation to war.


Defense's Nuclear Agency, 1947-1997

Defense's Nuclear Agency, 1947-1997
Author: Christian Brahmstedt
Publisher:
Total Pages: 466
Release: 2002
Genre: Government publications
ISBN:

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Defense's Nuclear Agency 1947-1997 (DTRA History Series)

Defense's Nuclear Agency 1947-1997 (DTRA History Series)
Author: Defense Threat Reduction Agency
Publisher: Militarybookshop.CompanyUK
Total Pages: 476
Release: 2003-09
Genre: History
ISBN:

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This official history was originally printed in very small numbers in 2002. "Defense's Nuclear Agency, 1947-1997" traces the development of the Armed Forces Special Weapons Project (AFSWP), and its descendant government organizations, from its original founding in 1947 to 1997. After the disestablishment of the Manhattan Engineering District (MED) in 1947, AFSWP was formed to provide military training in nuclear weapons' operations. Over the years, its sequential descendant organizations have been the Defense Atomic Support Agency (DASA) from 1959 to 1971, the Defense Nuclear Agency (DNA) from 1971 to 1996, and the Defense Special Weapons Agency (DSWA) from 1996 to 1998. In 1998, DSWA, the On-Site Inspection Agency, the Defense Technology Security Administration, and selected elements of the Office of Secretary of Defense were combined to form the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA).


No End in Sight

No End in Sight
Author: Nathan E. Busch
Publisher: University Press of Kentucky
Total Pages: 512
Release: 2014-10-17
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0813156629

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The global threat of nuclear weapons is one of today's key policy issues. Using a wide variety of sources, including recently declassified information, Nathan E. Busch offers detailed examinations of the nuclear programs in the United States, Russia, China, Iraq, India, and Pakistan, as well as the emerging programs in Iran and North Korea. He also assesses the current debates in international relations over the risks associated with the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the post--Cold War world. Busch explores how our understanding of nuclear proliferation centers on theoretical disagreements about how best to explain and predict the behavior of states. His study bridges the gap between theory and empirical evidence by determining whether countries with nuclear weapons have adequate controls over their nuclear arsenals and fissile material stockpiles (such as highly enriched uranium and plutonium). Analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of various systems of nuclear weapons regulation, Busch projects what types of controls proliferating states are likely to employ and assesses the threat posed by the possible theft of fissile materials by aspiring nuclear states or by terrorists. No End in Sight provides the most comprehensive and up-to-date analysis of issues at the forefront of contemporary international affairs. With the resurgence of the threat of nuclear terrorism, Busch's insights and conclusions will prove critical to understanding the implications of nuclear proliferation.