The Extreme Future Stock Returns Following Extreme Earnings Surprises PDF Download
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| Author | : Jeffrey T. Doyle |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 41 |
| Release | : 2006 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download The Extreme Future Stock Returns Following Extreme Earnings Surprises Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
We investigate the stock returns subsequent to large quarterly earnings surprises, where the benchmark for an earnings surprise is the consensus analyst forecast. By defining the surprise relative to an analyst forecast rather than a time-series model of expected earnings, we document returns subsequent to earnings announcements that are much larger, persist for much longer, and are more heavily concentrated in the long portion of the hedge portfolio than shown in previous studies. We show that our results hold after controlling for risk and previously documented anomalies, and are positive for every quarter between 1988 and 2000. Finally, we explore the financial results and information environment of firms with extreme earnings surprises and find that they tend to be quot;neglectedquot; stocks with relatively high book to market ratios, low analyst coverage, and high analyst forecast dispersion. In the three subsequent years, firms with extreme positive earnings surprises tend to have persistent earnings surprises in the same direction, strong growth in cash flows and earnings, and large increases in analyst coverage, relative to firms with extreme negative earnings surprises.
| Author | : Jeffrey T. Doyle |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2008 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download The Extreme Future Stock Returns Following I/B/E/S Earnings Surprises Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
We investigate the stock returns subsequent to quarterly earnings surprises, where the benchmark for an earnings surprise is the consensus analyst forecast. By defining the surprise relative to an analyst forecast rather than a time-series model of expected earnings, we document returns subsequent to earnings announcements that are much larger, persist for much longer, and are more heavily concentrated in the long portion of the hedge portfolio than shown in previous studies. We show that our results hold after controlling for risk and previously documented anomalies, and are positive for every quarter between 1988 and 2000. Finally, we explore the financial results and information environment of firms with extreme earnings surprises and find that they tend to be 'neglected' stocks with relatively high book-to-market ratios, low analyst coverage, and high analyst forecast dispersion. In the three subsequent years, firms with extreme positive earnings surprises tend to have persistent earnings surprises in the same direction, strong growth in cash flows and earnings, and large increases in analyst coverage, relative to firms with extreme negative earnings surprises. We also show that the returns to the earnings surprise strategy are highest in the quartile of firms where transaction costs are highest and institutional investor interest is lowest, consistent with the idea that market inefficiencies are more prevalent when frictions make it difficult for large, sophisticated investors to exploit the inefficiencies.
| Author | : Michael Kaestner |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 28 |
| Release | : 2007 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download Anomalous Price Behavior Following Earnings Surprises Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Behavioral Finance aims to explain empirical anomalies by introducing investor psychology as a determinant of asset pricing. Two kinds of anomalies, namely underreaction and overreaction, have been established by an impressive record of empirical work. While underreaction defines a slow adjustment of prices to corporate events or announcements, overreaction deals with extreme stock price reactions to previous information or past performance.This study investigates current and past earnings surprises for listed US companies over the period 1983-1999. It provides evidence that investors exhibit long-term overreaction to past, highly unexpected, earnings surprises. Investors tend to overestimate (underestimate) future earnings after extreme positive (negative) earnings surprises. As, on average, these extreme past surprises are not confirmed by subsequent earnings figures, they are followed by a correction of the initial overreaction at the date of the subsequent earnings announcement. Moreover, the longer the similar earnings surprise series, the higher the subsequent correction, suggesting that representativeness may cause this overreaction phenomenon.
| Author | : Alina Lerman |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2008 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download Double Surprise into Higher Future Returns Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Post-earnings-announcement drift is the well-documented ability of earnings surprises to predict future stock returns. Despite nearly four decades of research, little has been written about the importance of how earnings surprise is actually measured. We compare the magnitude of the drift when historical time-series data are used to estimate earnings surprise with the magnitude when analyst forecasts are used. We show that the drift is significantly larger when analyst forecasts are used. Furthermore, we show that using the two models together does a better job of predicting future stock returns than using either model alone.
| Author | : Allison Koester |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 49 |
| Release | : 2015 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download Attracting Attention in a Limited Attention World Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
We investigate why extreme positive earnings surprises occur and the consequences of these events. We posit that managers know before analysts when extremely good earnings news is developing, but can have incentives to allow the earnings news to surprise the market at the earnings announcement. In particular, managers can use an extreme positive earnings surprise to attract investor attention when they believe their stock is neglected and future performance is expected to be strong. Analysts, who must allocate scarce resources across many firms, can also be inattentive and miss signals that suggest good performance is going to be announced. Using various proxies for extreme positive earnings surprises, management expectations for future performance and desire for attention, and analyst neglect, we find evidence that an extreme positive earnings surprise is a predictable event. These findings are incremental to controlling for a firm's information environment, earnings volatility, and operating leverage. Finally, we show that extreme positive earnings surprises are a successful method for attracting attention, with significant increases in the number of institutional owners, the number of analysts, and trading volume during the subsequent three years.
| Author | : Leonard Zacks |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 352 |
| Release | : 2011-10-04 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0470905905 |
Download The Handbook of Equity Market Anomalies Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Investment pioneer Len Zacks presents the latest academic research on how to beat the market using equity anomalies The Handbook of Equity Market Anomalies organizes and summarizes research carried out by hundreds of finance and accounting professors over the last twenty years to identify and measure equity market inefficiencies and provides self-directed individual investors with a framework for incorporating the results of this research into their own investment processes. Edited by Len Zacks, CEO of Zacks Investment Research, and written by leading professors who have performed groundbreaking research on specific anomalies, this book succinctly summarizes the most important anomalies that savvy investors have used for decades to beat the market. Some of the anomalies addressed include the accrual anomaly, net stock anomalies, fundamental anomalies, estimate revisions, changes in and levels of broker recommendations, earnings-per-share surprises, insider trading, price momentum and technical analysis, value and size anomalies, and several seasonal anomalies. This reliable resource also provides insights on how to best use the various anomalies in both market neutral and in long investor portfolios. A treasure trove of investment research and wisdom, the book will save you literally thousands of hours by distilling the essence of twenty years of academic research into eleven clear chapters and providing the framework and conviction to develop market-beating strategies. Strips the academic jargon from the research and highlights the actual returns generated by the anomalies, and documented in the academic literature Provides a theoretical framework within which to understand the concepts of risk adjusted returns and market inefficiencies Anomalies are selected by Len Zacks, a pioneer in the field of investing As the founder of Zacks Investment Research, Len Zacks pioneered the concept of the earnings-per-share surprise in 1982 and developed the Zacks Rank, one of the first anomaly-based stock selection tools. Today, his firm manages U.S. equities for individual and institutional investors and provides investment software and investment data to all types of investors. Now, with his new book, he shows you what it takes to build a quant process to outperform an index based on academically documented market inefficiencies and anomalies.
| Author | : W. Bruce Johnson |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 47 |
| Release | : 2017 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download Contrarian Share Price Reactions to Earnings Surprises Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
A persistent (but overlooked) feature of the cross-sectional distribution of quarterly earnings announcement returns is that the measured earnings surprise and share price response to that surprise are often in the opposite direction. Extending Kinney, Burgstahler and Martin [2002], we provide evidence on the prevalence, determinants, and consequences of contrarian stock returns at the earnings announcement date. Using the most recent I/B/E/S consensus EPS forecast as our earnings benchmark, we find that contrarian returns occur for roughly 40 percent of the more than 230,000 quarterly earnings announcements that comprise our sample. They are only slightly less prevalent in extreme earnings surprise deciles, and are evident each quarter during 1985-2005. The incidence of contrarian returns is statistically related to: ldquo;noiserdquo; in the measured earnings surprise (stale I/B/E/S consensus forecasts, pre-announcement stock returns, and the presence of GAAP exclusions); and ldquo;noiserdquo; in the share price response to announced earnings (discordant revenue changes, discordant earnings forecast revisions, return volatility, bid-ask spread and discordant prior quarter earnings surprises). Finally, contrarian stocks exhibit little post-earnings-announcement drift.
| Author | : Joshua Livnat |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 37 |
| Release | : 2008 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download Differential Persistence of Extremely Negative and Positive Earnings Surprises Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Consistent with prior studies, this study shows that extremely negative and extremely positive earnings surprises in the fourth quarter have lower levels of persistence than those in the first through third fiscal quarters. Furthermore, extremely negative earnings surprises in the fourth fiscal quarter have lower levels of persistence than extremely positive earnings surprises in that quarter.Similar to the patterns of persistence, the post-earnings-announcement drift in prices is declining through the four quarters of the fiscal year, with the smallest drift occurring after the announcement of the fourth fiscal quarter. The drift after the fourth quarter is virtually nonexistent for extremely negative earnings surprises and smaller than extremely positive surprises, in line with the differential persistence of these surprises. The combined evidence in the study is consistent with investors who under-react to extreme earnings surprises because they seek further information. When the new information confirms the initial surprise, prices move in the same direction, creating a drift. The results of the study are robust to earnings surprises based on time-series properties of earnings or analyst forecasts.
| Author | : Itzhak Venezia |
| Publisher | : World Scientific |
| Total Pages | : 288 |
| Release | : 2018-06-27 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9813231580 |
Download Lecture Notes In Behavioral Finance Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This volume presents lecture notes for a course in behavioral finance, most suitable for MBA students, but also adaptable for a PhD class. These lecture notes are based on the author's experience in teaching behavioral finance classes at Bocconi University (at the PhD level) and at the Academic College of Tel Aviv-Yaffo (MBA).Written in a way that is user-friendly for both teachers and students, this book is the first of its kind and consolidates all the material necessary for a course on behavioral finance, balancing psychological concepts with financial applications. Material formerly presented only in academic papers has been transformed to a format more suitable for students, while the most important issues have been highlighted in boxes that can form the basis of a lecturer's teaching slides.In addition to corralling all the currently scattered materials into one book, a neat logical order is introduced to the subject matter. Behavioral finance is put in a context relative to the other disciplines of finance, its history is outlined and the way it evolved — from an eclectic collection of counter examples to market efficiency into a bona fide discipline of finance — is reviewed and explained.The 17 topic-based chapters in this book are each intended for a 90-minute lecture. The first five chapters (Part 1) provide the psychological and financial foundations of behavioral finance. The next 12 chapters (Part 2) are applications: Chapters 6-13 cover the essentials while Chapters 14-17 are special, elective topics.
| Author | : Matthew Partridge |
| Publisher | : Kogan Page Publishers |
| Total Pages | : 255 |
| Release | : 2022-02-03 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1398604097 |
Download Investing Explained Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Maximize your chances of investment success with this accessible and profitable guide which pulls away the curtain to put you on a level footing with the professionals - and points out where the pros can get it wrong. Never in history has it been easier for private investors to get involved in the market, and changes in technology, regulation and access to information mean that the advantage experts may have had is fast disappearing. Written by Matthew Partridge, a financial journalist for the UK's leading investment magazine, Investing Explained is filled with real life examples and plain English summaries of research produced by banks and academics to separate fact from fiction when it comes to investment clichés. Investing Explained covers the basics for beginner investors and includes more in-depth advice for those with more experience. Benefit from an overview of behavioural psychology (and how you can profit from the irrational behaviour of others), advice on fintech apps and cryptocurrencies, and the impact of a political or economic crisis on your investments. Access the stock market with this invaluable guide and build an investment portfolio which can secure your financial future.
