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The Exchange Rate in a Behavioral Finance Framework

The Exchange Rate in a Behavioral Finance Framework
Author: Paul De Grauwe
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages:
Release: 2018-06-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0691186995

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This book provides an alternative view of the workings of foreign exchange markets. The authors' modeling approach is based on the idea that agents use simple forecasting rules and switch to those rules that have been shown to be the most profitable in the past. This selection mechanism is based on trial and error and is probably the best possible strategy in an uncertain world, the authors contend. It creates a rich dynamic in the foreign exchange markets and can generate bubbles and crashes. Sensitivity to initial conditions is a pervasive force in De Grauwe and Grimaldi's model. It explains why large exchange-rate changes and volatility clustering occur. It also has important implications for understanding how the news affects the exchange rate. De Grauwe and Grimaldi conclude that news in fundamentals has an unpredictable effect on the exchange rate. Sometimes, they maintain, it alters the exchange rate considerably; at other times it has no effectwhatsoever. The authors also use their model to analyze the effects of official interventions in the foreign exchange market. They show that simple intervention rules of the "leaning-against-the-wind" variety can be effective in eliminating bubbles and crashes in the exchange rate. They further demonstrate how, quite paradoxically, by intervening in the foreign exchange market the central bank makes the market look more efficient. Clear and comprehensive, The Exchange Rate in a Behavioral Finance Framework is a must-have for analysts in foreign exchange markets as well as students of international finance and economics.


Handbook of Exchange Rates

Handbook of Exchange Rates
Author: Jessica James
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 674
Release: 2012-05-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1118445775

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Praise for Handbook of Exchange Rates “This book is remarkable. I expect it to become the anchor reference for people working in the foreign exchange field.” —Richard K. Lyons, Dean and Professor of Finance, Haas School of Business, University of California Berkeley “It is quite easily the most wide ranging treaty of expertise on the forex market I have ever come across. I will be keeping a copy close to my fingertips.” —Jim O’Neill, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management How should we evaluate the forecasting power of models? What are appropriate loss functions for major market participants? Is the exchange rate the only means of adjustment? Handbook of Exchange Rates answers these questions and many more, equipping readers with the relevant concepts and policies for working in today’s international economic climate. Featuring contributions written by leading specialists from the global financial arena, this handbook provides a collection of original ideas on foreign exchange (FX) rates in four succinct sections: • Overview introduces the history of the FX market and exchange rate regimes, discussing key instruments in the trading environment as well as macro and micro approaches to FX determination. • Exchange Rate Models and Methods focuses on forecasting exchange rates, featuring methodological contributions on the statistical methods for evaluating forecast performance, parity relationships, fair value models, and flow–based models. • FX Markets and Products outlines active currency management, currency hedging, hedge accounting; high frequency and algorithmic trading in FX; and FX strategy-based products. • FX Markets and Policy explores the current policies in place in global markets and presents a framework for analyzing financial crises. Throughout the book, topics are explored in-depth alongside their founding principles. Each chapter uses real-world examples from the financial industry and concludes with a summary that outlines key points and concepts. Handbook of Exchange Rates is an essential reference for fund managers and investors as well as practitioners and researchers working in finance, banking, business, and econometrics. The book also serves as a valuable supplement for courses on economics, business, and international finance at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.


Popularity: A Bridge between Classical and Behavioral Finance

Popularity: A Bridge between Classical and Behavioral Finance
Author: Roger G. Ibbotson
Publisher: CFA Institute Research Foundation
Total Pages: 128
Release: 2018
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1944960619

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Classical and behavioral finance are often seen as being at odds, but the idea of “popularity” has been introduced as a way of reconciling the two approaches. Investors like or dislike various characteristics of securities for rational reasons (as in classical finance) or irrational reasons (as in behavioral finance), which makes the assets popular or unpopular. In the capital markets, popular (unpopular) securities trade at prices that are higher (lower) than they would be otherwise; hence, the shares may provide lower (higher) expected returns.This book builds on this idea and expands it in two major ways. First, it introduces a rigorous asset pricing model, the popularity asset pricing model (PAPM), which adds investor preferences for security characteristics other than the risk and expected return that are part of the capital asset pricing model. A major conclusion of the PAPM is that the expected return of any security is a linear function of not only its systematic risk (beta) but also of all security characteristics that investors care about. The other major contribution of the book is new empirical work that, while confirming the well-known premiums (such as size, value, and liquidity) in a popularity context, supports the popularity hypothesis on the basis of portfolios of stocks based on such characteristics as brand value, sustainable competitive advantage, and reputation. Popularity unifies the factors that affect price in classical finance with those that drive price in behavioral finance, thus creating a unifying theory or bridge between classical and behavioral finance.


Exchange Rates And Global Financial Policies

Exchange Rates And Global Financial Policies
Author: Paul De Grauwe
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 585
Release: 2014-02-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9814513202

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Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies brings together research and work done by world-class economist Paul De Grauwe over the past two decades. Drawing inspiration from behavioural finance literature, De Grauwe covers topics such as exchange rate economics, monetary integration (with particular attention on the Eurozone), and international macroeconomics.His work is categorised across three parts. The first part develops new theoretical and empirical approaches to exchange rate modelling. The second part features a collection of papers on the theory and empirical analysis of monetary unions. The final part contains criticism of mainstream macroeconomic models as well as proposed alternative modelling approaches.


The Theory And Empirics Of Exchange Rates

The Theory And Empirics Of Exchange Rates
Author: Imad A Moosa
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 512
Release: 2009-07-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9814468509

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Exchange rate economics is an important field of investigation for academics, professionals and policy-makers. This book provides a comprehensive survey of the theory of and empirical evidence on the determination and effects of exchange rates. The exposition utilizes both diagrammatic and mathematical representations of the underlying models. The book is a comprehensive reference for those engaged in this field of research.


Exchange Rate Systems And Policies In Asia

Exchange Rate Systems And Policies In Asia
Author: Paul Sau Leung Yip
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 197
Release: 2008-11-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9814469971

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This important book comprises insightful papers on lessons learned from some major exchange rate and monetary experiences in Asia, exchange rate crisis management in Asia and choice of exchange rate systems in Asia. Originally published in the Singapore Economic Review, Vol. 52, No. 3, 2007, it deals primarily with the exchange rate systems and policies in the three largest economies in Asia: China, Japan and India. It also contains a paper on Singapore's exchange rate system, whose success could make it a role model for other small open economies. Notable contributors include Ronald McKinnon and John Williamson, among others. The editor is the original designer of China's latest exchange rate system reform.


Behavioralizing Finance

Behavioralizing Finance
Author: Hersh Shefrin
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
Total Pages: 196
Release: 2010
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1601983301

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Behavioralizing Finance provides a structured approach to behavioral finance in respect to underlying psychological concepts, formal framework, testable hypotheses, and empirical findings.


Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems

Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems
Author: Cars Hommes
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 273
Release: 2013-01-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1139619780

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Recognising that the economy is a complex system with boundedly rational interacting agents, the book presents a theory of behavioral rationality and heterogeneous expectations in complex economic systems and confronts the nonlinear dynamic models with empirical stylized facts and laboratory experiments. The complexity modeling paradigm has been strongly advocated since the late 1980s by some economists and by multidisciplinary scientists from various fields, such as physics, computer science and biology. More recently the complexity view has also drawn the attention of policy makers, who are faced with complex phenomena, irregular fluctuations and sudden, unpredictable market transitions. The complexity tools - bifurcations, chaos, multiple equilibria - discussed in this book will help students, researchers and policy makers to build more realistic behavioral models with heterogeneous expectations to describe financial market movements and macro-economic fluctuations, in order to better manage crises in a complex global economy.