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Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 40
Release: 1989-12-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451946961

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The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.


The Efficiency of Commodity Markets

The Efficiency of Commodity Markets
Author: Chang Chen
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2009
Genre:
ISBN:

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Current academic literature typically focuses on whether technical analysis rules are able to generate abnormal returns in commodity futures markets. While it is evident that the profitability of technical rules implies the existence of inefficiency in these markets, it does not answer the question of just how high the level of inefficiency is. The aim of this thesis is to introduce a measure of efficiency that is derived from the concept of temporary inefficiency. For this purpose, three different techniques are applied: Moving Averages, Trading Range Breakouts, and Filter Rules. Ten commodity futures markets are examined: corn, cotton, crude oil, gold, heating oil, live cattle, soybean, soybean oil, sugar, and wheat. The analysis is conducted on the basis of futures prices over a period of 20 years and four 5-year sub-periods. The finding from this thesis suggests that while it is true that none of the ten commodity markets is efficient, their degrees of inefficiency vary widely.


Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets

Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets
Author: Graciela Kaminsky
Publisher:
Total Pages: 37
Release: 2006
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper undertakes an econometric investigation into the efficiency of commodity futures markets. Despite a considerable amount of empirical literature, there is no general consensus on whether or not the markets are efficient. The results of this study suggest that for certain commodities expected excess returns to futures speculation are non-zero, however, it is argued that these results do not necessarily imply that markets are inefficient, or that agents do not act rationally. The implications of the study for the cost of using the futures markets for hedging, and for the power of futures prices to forecast future spot prices, are also noted.


Commodities

Commodities
Author: H. Kent Baker
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 681
Release: 2018-03-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0190656034

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Commodities: Markets, Performance, and Strategies provides a comprehensive view of commodity markets by describing and analyzing historical commodity performance, vehicles for investing in commodities, portfolio strategies, and current topics. It begins with the basics of commodity markets and various investment vehicles. The book then highlights the unique risk and return profiles of commodity investments, along with the dangers from mismanaged risk practices. The book also provides important insights into recent developments, including high frequency trading, financialization, and the emergence of virtual currencies as commodities. Readers of Commodities: Markets, Performance, and Strategies can gain an in-depth understanding about the multiple dimensions of commodity investing from experts from around the world. Commodity markets can be accessed with products that create unique risk and return dynamics for investors worldwide. The authors provide insights in a range of areas, from the economics of supply and demand for individual physical commodities through the financial products used to gain exposure to commodities. The book balances useful practical advice on commodity exposure while exposing the reader to various pitfalls inherent in these markets. Readers interested in a basic understanding will benefit as will those looking for more in-depth presentations of specific areas within commodity markets. Overall, Commodities: Markets, Performance, and Strategies provides a fresh look at the myriad dimensions of investing in these globally important markets.


Winning in the Commodities Market

Winning in the Commodities Market
Author: George Angell
Publisher: Doubleday Books
Total Pages: 380
Release: 1979
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Rational Expectations and Efficiency in Futures Markets

Rational Expectations and Efficiency in Futures Markets
Author: Barry Goss
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 252
Release: 2005-10-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 113497521X

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Do traders in futures markets make use of all relevant information and is this reflected in prices? This collection of original essays by a team of international economists considers these and other questions central to futures markets.


Commodity Market Reforms

Commodity Market Reforms
Author: John Baffes
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 308
Release: 2001-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780821345887

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Agricultural commodity markets in many developing countries are being reformed and are being based on market forces rather than regulated prices and official monopolies. This book discusses reforms in the markets for cocoa, coffee, cotton, grains, and sugar and looks at the reasons for success and failure.


Nonparametric Tests of Commodity Futures Market Efficiency

Nonparametric Tests of Commodity Futures Market Efficiency
Author: Andrew M. McKenzie
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2004
Genre:
ISBN:

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Commodity futures markets carry out two important marketing functions with respect to agricultural products: (1) a price discovery role and (2) a price risk management role. The relative effectiveness with which futures markets fulfill these two roles is dependent on the efficiency of the futures market and its ability to provide unbiased forecasts of subsequent futures prices at contract maturity. Our results indicate that futures price returns for live cattle, hogs, corn, rice and soybean meal violate the standard OLS assumption of normality. However, nonparametric statistics results did not materially conflict with our OLS parametric results. Further modeling indicated live cattle, hogs and soybean meal futures returns are better specified using GARCH type models, which allow for a non-constant error variance over time.


Storage and Commodity Markets

Storage and Commodity Markets
Author: Jeffrey C. Williams
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 522
Release: 1991-03-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0521326168

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This book deals with the capability to store surplus commodities and the impact of stockpiles on prices and production.