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The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Monetary Policy During a Zero-Interest-Rate Period

The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Monetary Policy During a Zero-Interest-Rate Period
Author: Mr.Jun Nagayasu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 32
Release: 2003-10-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451874723

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This paper empirically evaluates the validity of the term structure of interest rates in a low-interest-rate environment. Applying a time-series method to high-frequency Japanese data, the term-structure model is found to be useful for economic analysis only when interest rates are high. When interest rates are low, the usefulness of the model declines, since the interest spread contains little information that can be used for predicting future economic activity. The term-structure relationship is also weakened by the Bank of Japan's use of interest rate smoothing.


TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATE AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: OECD CASE

TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATE AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: OECD CASE
Author: Assist. Prof. Dr. Erkan KARA
Publisher: EĞİTİM YAYINEVİ
Total Pages: 99
Release: 2022-11-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 6258223419

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This study is dedicated to investigating the long-run relation between interest rate spreads and economic activities which include industrial production, inflation, and unemployment rate- in OECD countries over the period between2005 and 2015 by using panel data analysis. This study will use the latest panel data models that take structural breaks and cross-sectional dependency into account. Besides using panel data analysis on this issue, this paper will also try to see the effect of new monetary policies that are taking place by major central banks on yield spread and economic activities, especially industrial production. As it is known that, in the post-financial crisis of 2008 period, major central banks such as the Federal Reserve1 (The FED was the first central bank that started to implement new monetary policies just after the collapse of several large-scale investment banks in the U.S), European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Bank of England, have taken action to stimulate the world economy. Henceforth, not only these major central banks, but also other economies started to lower their policy interest rates soon in conventional way. These policies pushed interest rates almost to zero and since then the rates have remained very low due to lower output level and disinflationary fears.


Fiscal Policy, Public Debt and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Fiscal Policy, Public Debt and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Author: Roland Demmel
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 284
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3642585957

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The introduction of the thesis consists of four parts: first, we motivate our chosen macroeconomic setting by looking at some real world phenomena. For a better understanding of these phenomena, we argue that the mutual dynamic interactions between flScal policy and financial markets need to be closely examined in a macroeconomic framework. Second, we review different strands of the economic literature in order to show that most of the literature has so far exclusively concentrated either on fmancial market dynamics or on flScal policy issues. We conclude that a more integrated model setting is called for in order to explain the dynamic interactions observed in reality. Third, we discuss at length the economic assumptions underlying our model. This avoids multiple repetition later on. Finally, we outline the structure of the thesis and the objectives we pursue in the different chapters. 1. 1 Motivation Fiscal policy and financial market reactions are increasingly receiving world wide attention. The most recent examples are the Maastricht criteria about flScal control, the South-East Asia financial crisis and the resulting IMF policy stance, the high level of public debt in developed and developing countries and the effect on interest rates and economic growth. In contrast to the still underdeveloped theoretical literature on these dynamic links, finding empirical evidence that supports the existence of these links is not a very hard task.


Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Author: Mirko Abbritti
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 41
Release: 2013-11-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475513313

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This paper introduces global factors within a FAVAR framework in an empirical affine term structure model. We apply our method to a panel of international yield curves and show that global factors account for more than 80 percent of term premia in advanced economies. In particular they tend to explain long-term dynamics in yield curves, as opposed to domestic factors which are instead more relevant to short-run movements. We uncover the key role for global curvature in shaping term premia dynamics. We show that this novel factor precedes global economic and financial instability. In particular, it coincides with immediate expectations of permanent expansionary monetary policy during the recent crisis.


Term Structure of Interest Rates and Expectations of Economic Policy (Structure Par Terme Des Taux D'Interet Et Anticipations De La Politique Economique).

Term Structure of Interest Rates and Expectations of Economic Policy (Structure Par Terme Des Taux D'Interet Et Anticipations De La Politique Economique).
Author: Bruno Ducoudre
Publisher:
Total Pages: 253
Release: 2008
Genre:
ISBN:

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The thesis deals with the formation of expectations of economic policy in the term structure of interest rates. The first chapter studies the determination of the term structure of interest rates in a macroeconomic framework.The second chapter studies the Central banks' communication effects on interest rates. We explain why they refuse to unambiguously announce the future level of the funds rate. Then we distinguish the effect of decisions from the effect of future monetary policy announces on the term structure of interest rates in the Euro Zone and the United States.In the third chapter, we assess the fiscal policy effects on interest rates. According to us, fiscal policies would not have had any effect on the short term rate set by Central banks. Fiscal policies would also not have raised real long term interest rates over the studied period.The fourth chapter deals with explanations of the low level of the US long-term interest rate. We quantify the Conundrum, and we show that the strong rise in Foreigners' long-term Federal debt purchases can explain a part of the Conundrum.In the fifth chapter, we study the links between the equilibrium exchange rate, the long term rate and economic policy in a small open economy. We build up a theoretical model with time consistent economic policies. We show that the equilibrium real exchange rate and the equilibrium long term rate are contingent on policymakers' preferences.


Monetary Policy, Interest Rate Rules, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Monetary Policy, Interest Rate Rules, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Author: Ralf Fendel
Publisher: Peter Lang Publishing
Total Pages: 216
Release: 2007
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Interest rate rules play an important role in the empirical analysis of monetary policy as well as in modern monetary theory. Besides giving a comprehensive insight into this line of research the study incorporates the term structure of interest rates into interest rate rules. This is performed analytically as well as empirically. In doing so, state of the art techniques of modern finance for the analysis of the term structure of interest rates are introduced into the macroeconomic concept of interest rate rules. The study implies that from the theoretical perspective term structure effects are an important extension of interest rate rules. From an empirical perspective it shows that including term structure effects in interest rate reaction functions improves our understanding of the interest rate setting of the Deutsche Bundesbank and the European Central Bank.


Fiscal Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Fiscal Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Author: Qiang Dai
Publisher:
Total Pages: 56
Release: 2005
Genre: Bonds
ISBN:

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Macroeconomists want to understand the effects of fiscal policy on interest rates, while financial economists look for the factors that drive the dynamics of the yield curve. To shed light on both issues, we present an empirical macro-finance model that combines a no-arbitrage affine term structure model with a set of structural restrictions that allow us to identify fiscal policy shocks, and trace the effects of these shocks on the prices of bonds of different maturities. Compared to a standard VAR, this approach has the advantage of incorporating the information embedded in a large cross-section of bond prices. Moreover, the pricing equations provide new ways to assess the model's ability to capture risk preferences and expectations. Our results suggest that (i) government deficits affect long term interest rates: a one percentage point increase in the deficit to GDP ratio, lasting for 3 years, will eventually increase the 10-year rate by 40--50 basis points; (ii) this increase is partly due to higher expected spot rates, and partly due to higher risk premia on long term bonds; and (iii) the fiscal policy shocks account for up to 12% of the variance of forecast errors in bond yields.