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The Impact of Business Cycle Conditions on Firm Dynamics and Composition

The Impact of Business Cycle Conditions on Firm Dynamics and Composition
Author: Cihan Artunç
Publisher:
Total Pages: 71
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper explores how macroeconomic conditions affect firm dynamics in Egypt between 1911 and 1948 by constructing an extensive dataset of all companies ever founded in this period. By exploiting Egyptian economy's specialization in cotton exports, I use fluctuations in the world price of cotton to identify the direct impact of the business cycle on firm entry, exit, and growth. The analysis shows that growth occurred primarily at the extensive margin. Firm entry was procyclical but exit and growth were both acyclical. The new evidence reveals cyclical selection into entry. Booms systematically selected low quality entrants, which were smaller, less likely to grow after entry, and frailer than other cohorts. Bust cohorts were larger, more likely to grow, and more robust. The quality differences were persistent over the firms' lifecycles. These new findings support a theory of firm dynamics with ex-ante heterogeneous firms, permanent productivity differences between cohorts, and economic adjustment through the extensive margin of entry.


Uncertainty and the Employment Dynamics of Small and Large Businesses

Uncertainty and the Employment Dynamics of Small and Large Businesses
Author: Vivek Ghosal
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 49
Release: 2015-01-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475552513

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We examine the impact of uncertainty on employment dynamics. Alternative measures of uncertainty are constructed based on the survey of professional forecasters, and regressionbased forecasting models for GDP growth, inflation, S&P500 stock price index, and fuel prices. Our results indicate that greater uncertainty has a negative impact on growth of employment, and the effects are primarily felt by the relatively smaller businesses; the impact on large businesses are generally non-existent or weaker. Our results suggest that to truly understand the effects of uncertainty on employment dynamics, we need to focus on the relatively smaller and entrepreneurial businesses. We discuss implications for the framing of economic policy.


Business Dynamics and Productivity

Business Dynamics and Productivity
Author: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
Publisher: Organization for Economic Co-Operation & Development
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2017
Genre: Business enterprises
ISBN: 9789264269224

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- Preface - Foreword - Executive summary - List of acronyms and abbreviations - Assessing the links between business dynamics and policy settings - Employment growth of establishments in the Brazilian economy: Results by age and size groups - The role of mergers and acquisitions in employment dynamics in Belgium - Firm and job dynamics in the United Kingdom before, during and after the global financial crisis: Getting in under the hood - Cyclical labour market adjustment in New Zealand: The response of firms to the global financial crisis and its implications for workers


Understanding Business Dynamics

Understanding Business Dynamics
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 200
Release: 2007-04-05
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 030916446X

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The U.S. economy is highly dynamic: businesses open and close, workers switch jobs and start new enterprises, and innovative technologies redefine the workplace and enhance productivity. With globalization markets have also become more interconnected. Measuring business activity in this rapidly evolving environment increasingly requires tracking complex interactions among firms, establishments, employers, and employees. Understanding Business Dynamics presents strategies for improving the accuracy, timeliness, coverage, and integration of data that are used in constructing aggregate economic statistics, as well as in microlevel analyses of topics ranging from job creation and destruction and firm entry and exit to innovation and productivity. This book offers recommendations that could be enacted by federal statistical agencies to modernize the measurement of business dynamics, particularly the production of information on small and young firms that can have a disproportionately large impact in rapidly expanding economic sectors. It also outlines the need for effective coordination of existing survey and administrative data sources, which is essential to improving the depth and coverage of business data.


The Labor Market and Economic Adjustment

The Labor Market and Economic Adjustment
Author: Pierre-Richard Agénor
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 98
Release: 1995-11-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451854781

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This paper examines the role of the labor market in the transmission process of adjustment policies in developing countries. It begins by reviewing the recent evidence regarding the functioning of these markets. It then studies the implications of wage inertia, nominal contracts, labor market segmentation, and impediments to labor mobility for stabilization policies. The effect of labor market reforms on economic flexibility and the channels through which labor market imperfections alter the effects of structural adjustment measures are discussed next. The last part of the paper identifies a variety of issues that may require further investigation, such as the link between changes in relative wages and the distributional effects of adjustment policies.


Uncertainty and the Dynamics of R&D

Uncertainty and the Dynamics of R&D
Author: Nick Bloom
Publisher:
Total Pages: 32
Release: 2007
Genre: Corporations
ISBN:

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Uncertainty varies strongly over time, rising by 50% to 100% in recessions and by up to 200% after major economic and political shocks. This paper shows that higher uncertainty reduces the responsiveness of R & D to changes in business conditions - a "caution-effect"--Making it more persistent over time. Thus, uncertainty will play a critical role in shaping the dynamics of R & D through the business cycle, and its response to technology policy. I also show that if firms are increasing their level of R & D then the effect of uncertainty will be negative, while if firms are reducing R & D then the effect of uncertainty will be positive.


Who Creates New Firms When Local Opportunities Arise?

Who Creates New Firms When Local Opportunities Arise?
Author: Shai Bernstein
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 73
Release: 2018-09-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484377834

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New firm formation is a critical driver of job creation, and an important contributor to the responsiveness of the economy to aggregate shocks. In this paper we examine the characteristics of the individuals who become entrepreneurs when local opportunities arise due to an increase in local demand. We identify local demand shocks by linking fluctuations in global commodity prices to municipality level agricultural endowments in Brazil. We find that the firm creation response is almost entirely driven by young and skilled individuals, as measured by their level of experience, education, and past occupations involving creativity, problem-solving and managerial roles. In contrast, we find no such response within the same municipalities among skilled, yet older individuals, highlighting the importance of lifecycle considerations. These responsive individuals are younger and more skilled than the average entrepreneur in the population. The entrepreneurial response of young individuals is larger in municipalities with better access to finance, and in municipalities with more skilled human capital. These results highlight how the characteristics of the local population can have a significant impact on the entrepreneurial responsiveness of the economy.


What is the Impact of Increased Business Competition?

What is the Impact of Increased Business Competition?
Author: Sónia Félix
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 57
Release: 2019-12-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513521519

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This paper studies the macroeconomic effect and underlying firm-level transmission channels of a reduction in business entry costs. We provide novel evidence on the response of firms' entry, exit, and employment decisions. To do so, we use as a natural experiment a reform in Portugal that reduced entry time and costs. Using the staggered implementation of the policy across the Portuguese municipalities, we find that the reform increased local entry and employment by, respectively, 25% and 4.8% per year in its first four years of implementation. Moreover, around 60% of the increase in employment came from incumbent firms expanding their size, with most of the rise occurring among the most productive firms. Standard models of firm dynamics, which assume a constant elasticity of substitution, are inconsistent with the expansionary and heterogeneous response across incumbent firms. We show that in a model with heterogeneous firms and variable markups the most productive firms face a lower demand elasticity and expand their employment in response to increased entry.


Doing Business 2020

Doing Business 2020
Author: World Bank
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 241
Release: 2019-11-21
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1464814414

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Seventeen in a series of annual reports comparing business regulation in 190 economies, Doing Business 2020 measures aspects of regulation affecting 10 areas of everyday business activity.