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The Cross-Sectional Dispersion of Stock Returns, Alpha and the Information Ratio

The Cross-Sectional Dispersion of Stock Returns, Alpha and the Information Ratio
Author: Larry R. Gorman
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

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Both the cross-sectional dispersion of U.S. stock returns and the VIX provide forecasts of alpha dispersion across high- and low-performing portfolios of stocks that are statistically and economically significant. These findings suggest that absolute return investors can use cross-sectional dispersion and time-series volatility as signals to improve the tactical timing of their alpha-focused strategies. Because active risk increases by a greater amount than alpha, however, high return dispersion/high VIX periods are followed by slightly lower information ratio dispersion. Therefore, relative return investors who keep score in an information ratio framework are unlikely to find return dispersion useful as a signal regarding when to increase or decrease the activeness of their portfolio strategies.


Cross-Sectional Dispersion and Expected Returns

Cross-Sectional Dispersion and Expected Returns
Author: Thanos Verousis
Publisher:
Total Pages: 33
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

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This study investigates whether the cross-sectional dispersion of stock returns, which reflects the aggregate level of idiosyncratic risk in the market, represents a priced state variable. We find that stocks with high sensitivities to dispersion offer low expected returns. Furthermore, a zero-cost spread portfolio that is long (short) in stocks with low (high) dispersion betas produces a statistically and economically significant return, after accounting for its exposure to other systematic risk factors. Dispersion is associated with a significantly negative risk premium in the cross-section (-1.32% per annum) which is distinct from premia commanded by a set of alternative systematic factors. These results are robust to a wide set of stock characteristics, market conditions, and industry groupings.


Signs that Markets are Coming Back

Signs that Markets are Coming Back
Author:
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
Total Pages: 184
Release: 2014-05-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 178350918X

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Contributions assess hedge fund success, offer better estimation of implied volatility, extension of real options to include information items as underlying assets, analysis of whether a firm's founders can take artificial dividends without consequence, the uneasiness of real estate, and accountability for attempted artificial earnings management.


Return of the Active Manager

Return of the Active Manager
Author: C. Thomas Howard
Publisher: Harriman House Limited
Total Pages: 280
Release: 2019-10-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0857197649

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Emotional behavior and biases run throughout financial markets. This is the diagnosis of behavioral finance. But it is not enough to know that investors make biased decisions. What do we do about it? How do we move beyond diagnosis, to prescription? In this groundbreaking new book, investing and behavioural finance experts Thomas Howard and Jason A. Voss plug this void and show the new way ahead for investment managers and advisors. Return of the Active Manager provides a set of tools for investment professionals to overcome and take advantage of behavioral biases. Across seven compelling chapters, Return of the Active Manager details actionable advice on topics such as behaviourally-enhanced fundamental analysis, active equity fund evaluation and selection, harnessing big data, and investment firm structure. You learn how to exploit behavioural price distortions, how to recognise and avoid behavioural biases (in both yourself and clients), how to extract behavioral insights from the executives of prospective investments, and how manager behaviour can be used to predict future fund performance. An indispensable tool, Return of the Active Manager rationalises the financial markets and prescribes actionable strategies that build on the lessons of behavioural finance.


Cross-Sectional Return Dispersion and the Equity Premium

Cross-Sectional Return Dispersion and the Equity Premium
Author: Paulo F. Maio
Publisher:
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

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In this paper, I examine whether stock return dispersion (RD) provides useful information about future stock returns. RD consistently forecasts a decline in the excess market return at multiple horizons, and compares favorably with alternative predictors used in the literature. The out-of-sample performance of RD tends to beat the alternative predictors, and is economically significant as indicated by the certainty equivalent gain associated with a trading investment strategy. RD has greater forecasting power for big and growth stocks compared to small and value stocks, respectively. I discuss a theoretical mechanism giving rise to the negative correlation between RD and the equity premium.


Cross-Sectional Alpha Dispersion and Performance Evaluation

Cross-Sectional Alpha Dispersion and Performance Evaluation
Author: Campbell R. Harvey
Publisher:
Total Pages: 70
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

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Our paper explores the link between cross-sectional fund return dispersion and performance evaluation. The foundation of our model is the simple intuition that in periods of high return dispersion, which is associated with high levels of idiosyncratic risk for zero-alpha funds, it is easier for unskilled managers to disguise themselves as skilled. Rational investors should be more skeptical and apply larger discounts to reported performance in high dispersion environments. Our empirical results are consistent with this prediction. Using fund flow data, we show that a one-standard deviation increase in cross-sectional return dispersion is associated with an 11% to 17% decline in flow-performance sensitivity. The effect is stronger for recent data and among outperforming funds.


Information Precision, Noise, and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

Information Precision, Noise, and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns
Author: Radu Burlacu
Publisher:
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2009
Genre:
ISBN:

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We derive a cross-sectional asset pricing measure from a noisy multi-asset rational expectations equilibrium model. The measure is based on the time-series covariance of an asset's returns and security prices. Empirically, stocks with a measure one standard deviation above and below the average have returns that differ by 0.36% the following month (4.44% per annum) which is statistically significant at the 1%-level. Results remain significant after including variables such as stock market capitalization, book-to-market ratio, and the probability of information-based trading. Our measure can be understood as a proxy for information risk and/or supply uncertainty. We show the two explanations are theoretically intertwined.


Return Dispersion, Size, and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns - Evidence from the German Stock Market

Return Dispersion, Size, and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns - Evidence from the German Stock Market
Author: Antonina Waszczuk
Publisher:
Total Pages: 19
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper investigates whether return dispersion (RD), proxied by the cross-sectional standard deviation of stock returns, captures variation in returns across German stocks between 1989 and 2010. I address existing evidence based on U.S. equity data that RD may serve as a proxy economic state variable. In the out-of-sample test I confirm the countercyclical character of RD and show that it loads significantly negatively on future equal-weighted average market return. Sorting stocks by their absolute loadings on RD, I uncover the negative pattern in simple average portfolio returns. Further analysis indicates that the negative relationship between absolute loadings on RD and future returns is present only in micro stock subgroup. This finding casts doubt on the RD as proxy for state variable. Instead, it suggests its relation to mispricing and idiosyncratic risk components. As a secondary results I confirm the existence of reversed size effect in German stock market over the considered period.


Expectations and the Structure of Share Prices

Expectations and the Structure of Share Prices
Author: John G. Cragg
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 185
Release: 2009-05-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0226116727

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John G. Cragg and Burton G. Malkiel collected detailed forecasts of professional investors concerning the growth of 175 companies and use this information to examine the impact of such forecasts on the market evaluations of the companies and to test and extend traditional models of how stock market values are determined.