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The causality relationship between money supply, inflation and Real GDP

The causality relationship between money supply, inflation and Real GDP
Author: Moges Endalamaw Yigermal
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Total Pages: 23
Release: 2018-03-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3668655979

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Case Study from the year 2016 in the subject Economics - Monetary theory and policy, , language: English, abstract: Since the main objective of the paper is to test the existence of causality relationship between the three macroeconomic variables, namely real GDP, price level (CPI) and M2 money supply (MS), analysis has been made there by employing 40 years of data (data from 1975-2014). VAR Granger causality test has been made to verify the objective of the paper. The VAR Granger causality test result suggesting the existence of strong and significant correlation between the three variable s pairwise. The direction of causation is found to be a uni- directional causation between money supply and inflation, real GDP and Money supply and between real GDP and inflation and the causation runs from money supply to inflation, real GDP to Money supply and real GDP to inflation respectively. From the causation we observed that money supply has relationship with level of price and economic growth (real GDP). Basically targeting monetary expansion has a multiple role to boost economic growth and control the level of inflation.


A Relook at the Short-Run Causality Between Real GDP and Money Supply in India Since the 1950s

A Relook at the Short-Run Causality Between Real GDP and Money Supply in India Since the 1950s
Author: Sanjib Debnath
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

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The present paper tests for short-run causality between money supply and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in India during the period 1954-2013 adopting the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) modified Granger causality approach under a Vector Autoregression (VAR) environment. Exponentially detrended annual time series data at constant price of GDP, narrow money supply and broad money supply are used for this purpose. Alternative tests for structural breaks reveal significant breaks in the variables around the period 2001-2004. The findings are suggestive of a bidirectional causality between broad money and GDP, while narrow money is found to significantly Granger-cause GDP, but the converse is insignificant implying unidirectional causality from narrow money to GDP. The study is of the view that both narrow and broad money in India have a long-run equilibrium relationship with real GDP and short-run causal relations are therefore anticipated.


The Causes, Costs and Compensations of Inflation

The Causes, Costs and Compensations of Inflation
Author: William Oliver Coleman
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 269
Release: 2009-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 184720418X

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It is difficult to give justice to this intriguing book within the confines of a short review. Ernst Juerg Weber, History of Economics Review Coleman s book provides an impressively clear, lively, and intuitive discussion of three of the most important issues in all of monetary economics. I recommend it highly to all readers with an interest in these issues. Peter N. Ireland, Journal of Economic Literature William Coleman s book offers a highly original and insightful discussion of the state of modern monetary theory. Professor Coleman covers difficult issues with a lightness of touch that makes for a very readable discussion. It will benefit students as well as professional economists and policymakers. Kevin Dowd, University of Nottingham, UK This book explores the causes, costs and benefits of inflation. It argues that while the cause of inflation is essentially monetary, the costs and benefits of inflation lie in inflation s distortion of the economy's responses to real shocks. The book begins by securing the Quantity Theory of Money from certain critiques. The theory is defended from the fiscal theory of the price level by a refinement of the theory of money demand, and from post Keynesianism by the construction of a theory of the supply of inside money. To cope with the endogeneity of outside money, a simple and tractable neo-Wicksellian theory of inflation is advanced, which is shown to exhibit a striking homology with the Quantity Theory. The author then traces the costliness of inflation, not to any disturbance of the money market, but to the damage inflation does to the bond market s function of sharing out disturbances to consumption caused by technological shocks. The same damage, however, imparts an egalitarian dynamic to the accumulation of wealth, which will not occur without risky inflation. The Causes, Costs and Compensations of Inflation will be of great interest to policy makers, central bankers, researchers, and both post-graduate and undergraduate students in macroeconomics, money and banking.


The relationship of inflation and economic growth in Ethiopia

The relationship of inflation and economic growth in Ethiopia
Author: Deseke Kebede
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Total Pages: 69
Release: 2017-11-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3668582432

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Research Paper (undergraduate) from the year 2017 in the subject Economics - Economic Cycle and Growth, grade: 1, , language: English, abstract: The purpose of the study is to examine the relationship between inflation and economic growth in Ethiopia over the period of 1991/92- 2014/15 by using data at quarter base. The study was employed Johansen method of co-integration and vector error correction model and a technique of conditional least square. The result shows that both in long-run and short-run the relationship between inflation and economic growth is positive. Despite to this, the granger causality test tells us bi- directional causation between these two variables. The result also revealed that threshold level of inflation beyond on which inflation negatively affects economic growth of Ethiopia is 5 percent. Therefore, co-ordination between macro- economic policy makers is vital and should have to raise their hands and put their eyes on measures that keep down inflation below 5 percent to have sustainable economic growth in the country.


Economic Growth and Inflation

Economic Growth and Inflation
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 122
Release: 1994
Genre: Economic development
ISBN:

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Does Money Matter for U.S. Inflation? Evidence from Bayesian VARs

Does Money Matter for U.S. Inflation? Evidence from Bayesian VARs
Author: Helge Berger
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 24
Release: 2008-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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We use Bayesian estimation techniques to investigate whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the United States. We test for Granger-causality out-of-sample and find, perhaps surprisingly given recent theoretical arguments, that including money growth in simple VAR models of inflation does systematically improve out-of-sample forecasting accuracy. This holds for a long forecasting sample 1960-2005, as well for more recent subperiods, including the Volcker and Greenspan eras. However, the contribution of money to inflation forecasting accuracy is quantitatively limited and tends to be smaller in recent subperiods, in particular in models that also include information on real GDP growth and interest rates.


Inflation

Inflation
Author: Leon V. Schwartz
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2009
Genre: Inflation (Finance)
ISBN: 9781607418238

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In economics, inflation is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. The term inflation once referred to increases in the money supply (monetary inflation); however, economic debates about the relationship between money supply and price levels have led to its primary use today in describing price inflation. Inflation can also be described as a decline in the real value of money -- a loss of purchasing power in the medium of exchange which is also the monetary unit of account. When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services. A chief measure of general price-level inflation is the general inflation rate, which is the percentage change in a general price index, normally the Consumer Price Index, over time. Inflation can have adverse effects on an economy. For example, uncertainty about future inflation may discourage investment and savings. High inflation may lead to shortages of goods if consumers begin hoarding out of concern that prices will increase in the future. Economists generally agree that high rates of inflation and hyperinflation are caused by an excessive growth of the money supply. This new important book gathers the latest research from around the globe on this issue.


Impact of inflation on economic growth in Nigeria in the context of an emerging market

Impact of inflation on economic growth in Nigeria in the context of an emerging market
Author: Micah Effiong
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Total Pages: 24
Release: 2020-03-25
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3346137627

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Research Paper (undergraduate) from the year 2016 in the subject Economics - Economic Cycle and Growth, grade: A, , language: English, abstract: The study was conducted to evaluate the impact of inflation on economic growth in the context of an emerging market using empirical evidence from Nigeria. Using time series data spanning forty one years (1970-2011) which was obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin volume 22, and Central Bank of Nigeria official website, the nature of the relationship existing between the focus variables - economic growth (proxied by real Gross Domestic Product, GDP) and inflation rate was explored. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Philip-Perron (PP) tests were used to test for the stationary of the variables while the granger causality test was employed to ascertain the direction of influence between inflation and economic growth in Nigeria. The follow research questions guided this study: What is the trend of inflation in Nigeria? Why have all the policies used unable to reduce inflation rate to an acceptable level? What is the impact of inflation of Nigerian economic growth? Inflation growth has been the macro-economic problem in Nigeria that seems to be intractable over the years; Nigeria government has adopted various measures (both monetary and fiscal policies) to curb or reduce inflation growth to an acceptable level but all these policies seem to have no effects. This gave rise to the following research questions.