The Business Cycle in the United States, 1948-1968
Author | : Econtel research limited |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 0 |
Release | : 1969 |
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Author | : Econtel research limited |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 0 |
Release | : 1969 |
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Total Pages | : 20 |
Release | : 1969 |
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Author | : Econtel Research |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 20 |
Release | : 1969 |
Genre | : Business cycles |
ISBN | : 9780901202055 |
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ISBN | : 9780901202055 |
Author | : Robert J. Gordon |
Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
Total Pages | : 882 |
Release | : 2007-11-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0226304590 |
In recent decades the American economy has experienced the worst peace-time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. These circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles, which Joseph Schumpeter suggested are "like the beat of the heart, of the essence of the organism that displays them." In The American Business Cycle, some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the United States focuses on the questions, To what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks? How have post-1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles? And, what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles? They extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations. Seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity: consumption, investment, inventory change, fiscal policy, monetary behavior, open economy, and the labor market. Five papers focus on aggregate economic activity. In a number of cases, the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions. In addition to its substantive findings, The American Business Cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the NBER business-cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series.
Author | : Victor Zarnowitz |
Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
Total Pages | : 614 |
Release | : 1992-06-15 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0226978907 |
Victor Zarnowitz has long been a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting. These papers represent a carefully integrated and up-to-date study of business cycles, reexamining some of his earlier research as well as addressing recent developments in the literature and in history. In part one, Zarnowitz reviews with characteristic insight various theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories as well as more recent rational expectations and real business cycle theories. In doing so, he examines how the business cycle may have changed as the size of government, the exercise of fiscal and monetary policies, the openness of the economy to international forces, and the industrial structure have evolved over time. Emphasizing important research from the 1980s, Zarnowitz discusses in part two various measures of the trends and cycles in economic activity, including output, prices, inventories, investment in residential and nonresidential structures, equipment, and other economic variables. Here the author explores the duration and severity of U.S. business cycles over more than 150 years, and evaluates the ability of macro models to simulate past behavior of the economy. In part three the performance of leading, coincident, and lagging indicators is described and assessed and evidence is presented on the value of their composite measures. Finally, part four offers an analysis of the degree of success of large commercial forecasting firms and of many individual economists in predicting the course of inflation, real growth, unemployment, interest rates, and other key economic variables. Business Cycles is a timely study, certain tobecome a basic reference for professional forecasters and economists in government, academia, and the business community.
Author | : Anton Brender |
Publisher | : Centre for European Policy Studies |
Total Pages | : 136 |
Release | : 2018-04-24 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 9789461386755 |
Each year, 25% of the world's output is produced by less than 5% of the planet's population. The juxtaposition of these two figures gives an idea of the power of the American economy. Not only is it the most productive among the major developed economies, but it is also a place where new products, services and production methods are constantly being invented. Even so, for all its efficiency and its capacity for innovation, the United States is progressively manifesting worrying signs of dysfunction. Since the 1970s, the American economy has experienced increasing difficulty in generating social progress. Worse still, over the past twenty years, signs of actual regression are becoming more and more numerous. How can this paradox be explained? Answering this question is the thread running throughout the chapters of this book. Anton Brender and Florence Pisani, economists with Candriam Investors Group, offer the reader an overview of the history and structure of the American economy, guided by a concern to shed light on the problems it faces today.
Author | : |
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Total Pages | : 1076 |
Release | : 1977 |
Genre | : United States |
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Author | : United States. Bureau of the Census |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 608 |
Release | : 1967 |
Genre | : Business cycles |
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Author | : Mr.Vadim Khramov |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 60 |
Release | : 2013-10-23 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484311671 |
Existing economic indicators and indexes assess economic activity but no single indicator measures the general macro-economic performance of a nation, state, or region in a methodologically simple and intuitive way. This paper proposes a simple, yet informative metric called the Economic Performance Index (EPI). The EPI represents a step toward clarity, by combining data on inflation, unemployment, government deficit, and GDP growth into a single indicator. In contrast to other indexes, the EPI does not use complicated mathematical procedures but was designed for simplicity, making it easier for professionals and laypeople alike to understand and apply to the economy. To maximize ease of understanding, we adopt a descriptive grading system. In addition to a Raw EPI that gives equal weights to its components, we construct a Weighted EPI and show that both indexes perform similarly for U.S. data. To demonstrate the validity of the EPI, we conduct a review of U.S. history from 1790 to 2012. We show that the EPI reflects the major events in U.S. history, including wars, periods of economic prosperity and booms, along with economic depressions, recessions, and even panics. Furthermore, the EPI not only captures official recessions over the past century but also allows for measuring and comparing their relative severity. Even though the EPI is simple by its construction, we show that its dynamics are similar to those of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI).