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The 2020-2022 Inflation Surge Across Europe: A Phillips-Curve-Based Dissection

The 2020-2022 Inflation Surge Across Europe: A Phillips-Curve-Based Dissection
Author: Chikako Baba
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 25
Release: 2023-02-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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In 2021-22, inflation in Europe soared to multidecade highs, consistently exceeding policymakers’ forecasts and surprising with its wide cross-country dispersion. This paper analyzes the key drivers of the inflation surge in Europe and its variation across countries. The analysis highlights significant differences in Phillips curve parameters across Europe’s economies. Inflation is more sensitive to domestic slack and external price pressures in emerging European economies compared to their advanced counterparts, which contributed to a greater passthrough of global commodity price shocks into domestic prices, and, consequently, to larger increases in inflation rates. Across Europe, inflation also appears to have become increasingly backward looking and more sensitive to commodity price shocks since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. This finding helps explain why conventional (Phillips curve) inflation models consistently underpredicted the 2021-2022 inflation surge, although it remains too early to conclude there has been a structural break in the inflation process.


Has the Phillips Curve Become Steeper?

Has the Phillips Curve Become Steeper?
Author: Mr. Anil Ari
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 23
Release: 2023-05-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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This paper analyzes whether structural changes in the aftermath of the pandemic have steepened the Phillips curves in advanced economies, reversing the flattening observed in recent decades and reducing the sacrifice ratio associated with disinflation. Particularly, analysis of granular price quote data from the UK indicates that increased digitalization may have raised price flexibility, while de-globalization may have made inflation more responsive to domestic economic conditions again. Using sectoral data from 24 advanced economies in Europe, higher digitalization and lower trade intensity are shown to be associated with steeper Phillips curves. Post-pandemic Phillips curve estimates indicate some steepening in the UK, Spain, Italy and the euro area as a whole, but at magnitudes that are too small to explain the entire surge in inflation in 2021–22, suggesting an important role for outward shifts in the Phillips curve.


Causes and Implications of Elevated Inflation in Cyprus

Causes and Implications of Elevated Inflation in Cyprus
Author: Robert C. M. Beyer
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 14
Release: 2023-07-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Inflation has risen sharply in Cyprus, initially driven by imported prices, but increasingly broadening to domestic prices. A Phillips Curve estimate attributes the high inflation largely to energy prices, external price pressures, and inflation expectations at the end of 2022. Historically high pass-through of inflation shocks to wages—amplified by a tight labor market—may make inflation persistent. This calls for policies to stem inflationary pressures while protecting vulnerable households.


Inflation in Portugal

Inflation in Portugal
Author: Mr. Kamil Dybczak
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 20
Release: 2023-07-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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This paper examines recent trends, main drivers, and risks to near-term inflation in Portugal. Before the energy crisis, inflation in Portugal was low, often below the Euro Area average, but it accelerated quickly in the second half of 2022. Our estimated Phillips curve regression suggests that, similarly to other Euro Area countries, inflation in Portugal has been largely driven by food and external prices pressures. Inflation is projected to gradually decrease, reflecting receding energy prices and anchored inflation expectations. However, uncertainty remains high and inflation could remain elevated, especially if the inflationary process became backward looking or wage-inflation spirals are induced by pressures from energy prices.


Portugal

Portugal
Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 51
Release: 2023-06-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Portugal: Selected Issues


Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary Czechia

Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary Czechia
Author: Daniel Stavárek
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
Total Pages: 353
Release: 2024-04-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1837538409

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Separated into four distinct parts, Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary Czechia explores economic growth in Czechia from the perspectives of the dynamics of the economy, setting up of the economic policies, functioning of the markets and institutions, and the contribution of specific industry sectors to economic growth.


Republic of Kazakhstan

Republic of Kazakhstan
Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 27
Release: 2024-02-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Selected Issues


Cyprus

Cyprus
Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 22
Release: 2023-06-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Cyprus: Selected Issues


Effectiveness of Capital Controls in Selected Emerging Markets in the 2000's

Effectiveness of Capital Controls in Selected Emerging Markets in the 2000's
Author: Chikako Baba
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 45
Release: 2011-12-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1463926626

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This paper estimates the effectiveness of capital controls in response to inflow surges in Brazil, Colombia, Korea, and Thailand in the 2000s. Controls are generally associated with a decrease in inflows and a lengthening of maturities, but the relationship is not statistically significant in all cases, and the effects are temporary. Controls are more successful in providing room for monetary policy than dampening currency appreciation pressures. We argue that the macroeconomic impact of capital controls depends on the extensiveness of the policy, the level of capital market development, the support provided by other policies, and the persistence of capital flows.


Procedures and Protocols in the Neurocritical Care Unit

Procedures and Protocols in the Neurocritical Care Unit
Author: Niraj Arora
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 713
Release: 2022-01-28
Genre: Medical
ISBN: 3030902250

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This practical book covers neuro-critical care procedures performed in medical or surgical ICU and different procedures dedicated to acute neurological care. The book's format allows for quick decisions about care and protocols while treating neurologically injured patients. Divided into two sections, the first focuses on procedures. The outlines of these chapters include indication, technique, types of kits available, and challenges. The second section covers the protocols; these chapters feature flowcharts, drugs/device, doses of drugs, description of device, indication, evidence, and future prospects. This succinct guide will serve as a go-to reference for residents, fellows, intensivists, or any healthcare personnel within neuro-critical care unit.