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Testing for Asymmetric Financial Contagion

Testing for Asymmetric Financial Contagion
Author: Dimitris Kenourgios
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper investigates financial contagion as an asymmetric propagation mechanism across both equity and foreign exchange markets. In order to provide a robust analysis of the contagion dynamics, we apply an asymmetric generalized dynamic conditional correlation (AG-DCC) model. This specification allows examining the presence of asymmetric responses in correlations to negative returns, focusing on four countries affected by a specific emerging-market crisis (Asian crisis in 1997-1998). We find that conditional correlations among stock (currency) markets increase significantly during the crisis period, supporting the presence of asymmetric responses to negative shocks and the contagion phenomenon. The results also support the regional nature of this crisis, which is also spread with a higher magnitude among equity rather than currency markets. This evidence has important implications for portfolio diversification strategies and the effectiveness of policy responses to prevent the spread of the crisis among countries.


Testing for Contagion in International Financial Markets

Testing for Contagion in International Financial Markets
Author: Sébastien Wälti
Publisher:
Total Pages: 40
Release: 2003
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper tests for the existence of contagion during the 1997/98 Asian crisis. We interpret contagion as a significant change in the way that country-specific shocks are transmitted across international stock markets. Using the full-information framework of Favero and Giavazzi (2002) we find that the null hypothesis of no contagion is widely rejected. We also uncover evidence of an asymmetric transmission of shocks. Since our results contrast with those obtained by Rigobon (2001, 2002) using a limited-information methodology we present Monte Carlo simulations which show that certain necessary conditions must be satisfied for this method to have power. For parameter values in line with our econometric estimations we conclude that the power of the limited-information approach remains relatively low.


Testing for Stock Market Contagion

Testing for Stock Market Contagion
Author: Sungyong Park
Publisher:
Total Pages: 57
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

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Regarding the asymmetric and leptokurtic behavior of financial data, we propose a new contagion test in the quantile regression framework that is robust to model misspecification. Unlike conventional correlation-based tests, the proposed quantile contagion test allows us to investigate the stock market contagion at various quantiles, not only at the mean. We show that the quantile contagion test can detect a contagion effect that is possibly ignored by correlation-based tests. A wide range of simulation studies show that the proposed test is superior to the correlation-based tests in terms of size and power. We compare our test with correlation-based tests using three real data sets: the 1994 Tequila crisis, the 1997 Asia crisis, and the 2001 Argentina crisis. Empirical results show substantial differences between two types of tests.


Testing for Financial Contagion

Testing for Financial Contagion
Author: Lei Ming Chrismin Tang
Publisher:
Total Pages: 530
Release: 2007
Genre: Contagion (Social psychology)
ISBN:

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Interconnectedness and Contagion Analysis: A Practical Framework

Interconnectedness and Contagion Analysis: A Practical Framework
Author: Mrs.Jana Bricco
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 49
Release: 2019-10-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513517856

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The analysis of interconnectedness and contagion is an important part of the financial stability and risk assessment of a country’s financial system. This paper offers detailed and practical guidance on how to conduct a comprehensive analysis of interconnectedness and contagion for a country’s financial system under various circumstances. We survey current approaches at the IMF for analyzing interconnectedness within the interbank, cross-sector and cross-border dimensions through an overview and examples of the data and methodologies used in the Financial Sector Assessment Program. Finally, this paper offers practical advice on how to interpret results and discusses potential financial stability policy recommendations that can be drawn from this type of in-depth analysis.


Bubbles and Contagion in Financial Markets, Volume 1

Bubbles and Contagion in Financial Markets, Volume 1
Author: E. Porras
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 303
Release: 2016-06-29
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 1137358769

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Understanding the formation of bubbles and the contagion mechanisms afflicting financial markets is a must as extreme volatility events leave no market untouched. Debt, equity, real estate, commodities... Shanghai, NY, or London: The severe fluctuations, explained to a large extent by contagion and the fear of new bubbles imploding, justify the newly awaken interest in the contagion and bubble dynamics as yet again the world brazes for a new global economic upheaval. Bubbles and Contagion in Financial Markets explores concepts, intuition, theory, and models. Fundamental valuation, share price development in the presence of asymmetric information, the speculative behavior of noise traders and chartists, herding and the feedback and learning mechanisms that surge within the markets are key aspects of these dynamics. Bubbles and contagion are a vast world and fascinating phenomena that escape a narrow exploration of financial markets. Hence this work looks beyond into macroeconomics, monetary policy, risk aggregation, psychology, incentive structures and many more subjects which are in part co-responsible for these events. Responding to the ever more pressing need to disentangle the dynamics by which financial local events are transmitted across the globe, this volume presents an exhaustive and integrative outlook to the subject of bubbles and contagion in financial markets. The key objective of this volume is to give the reader a comprehensive understanding of all aspects that can potentially create the conditions for the formation and bursting of bubbles, and the aftermath of such events: the contagion of macro-economic processes. Achieving a better understanding of the formation of bubbles and the impact of contagion will no doubt determine the stability of future economies – let these two volumes be the starting point for a rational approach to a seemingly irrational phenomena.


Testing and Dating Financial Contagion

Testing and Dating Financial Contagion
Author: Shang Chan Chiou
Publisher:
Total Pages: 176
Release: 2007
Genre: Financial crises
ISBN: 9780549010388

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In the paper, we propose a new methodology to test and date the financial contagion. The newly proposed multivariate model not only incorporates endogenous structural breaks but also encompasses a "mixed" version of state-space model. It provides a "direct" test for the presence of contagion while controlling three types of bias, namely, heteroskedasticity, endogeneity and omitted variables. In contrast to the correlation-based test available in the literature, our test is direct by literally inspecting "the change of cross-market dependence". Contrast to the traditional state-space model, we explore the possible relationship among observable and latent factors. In addition, in stead of using exogenously specified turmoil periods, we endogeneously pin down the break points. Finally, the number of latent variables and the number of break points are also endogenously selected by a model comparison procedure. We illustrate the proposed methodology by analyzing the stock market collapses in Hong Kong, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and South Korea during 1997 and early 1998. The empirical study suggests three structural breaks occurred on 6/11/97, 10/15/97 and 11/12/98, respectively. The first two breaks are further shown to exhibit financial contagion. The conclusion of the existence of contagion is robust under various model specifications.