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Testing Efficiency of the Copper Futures Market

Testing Efficiency of the Copper Futures Market
Author: Dimitris Kenourgios
Publisher:
Total Pages: 18
Release: 2005
Genre:
ISBN:
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This paper investigates the joint hypothesis of market efficiency and unbiasedness of futures prices for the copper futures contract traded on the London Metal Exchange. This contract is of particular importance given the usage and properties of the underlying commodity and its highest share of trading during the last decade, in an exchange which is the centre of the world's trading in copper. The data contain prices from two different copper futures contracts (three and fifteen months maturity) covering the decade of 1990s, a very volatile and turbulent period for the copper market worldwide. Unlike previous studies, it tests for both long-run and short-run efficiency using cointegration and error correction model. Our results show that the market is not efficient and do not provide unbiased estimates of future copper spot prices, which has important implications for the users of this market.

Re-examining the Futures Market Efficiency Using a New Approach in the Presence of a Time-Varying Risk Premium

Re-examining the Futures Market Efficiency Using a New Approach in the Presence of a Time-Varying Risk Premium
Author: Duminda Kuruppuarachchi
Publisher:
Total Pages: 46
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:
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We re-examine the market efficiency of commodity futures using a new approach that accounts for both time-varying risk premium and conditional heteroscedasticity of spot prices. The conventional market efficiency tests so far in the literature are based on either risk neutral or constant risk premium assumptions as such they are biased towards the rejection of the market efficiency hypothesis especially for commodity futures. The time varying risk premium is estimated using a state space model with a modified Kalman filter. Using a Monte Carlo simulation, we show that the proposed test produces robust and superior results under varying market conditions compared to the conventional approaches. By employing the proposed test we analyse the efficiency of crude oil, corn, copper and gold futures and find that gold futures is inefficient throughout the sample period 2000-2011 while others are efficient especially after the global financial crisis (GFC) in 2008. We also find significant changes in the underlying risk premiums due to the GFC. We extend the analysis to a comprehensive sample of 85 commodities traded on 16 exchanges worldwide and find that efficiency and risk premiums vary across the four market sectors while GFC has caused to increase both efficiency and risk premiums in all markets other than precious metals.

Mathematical Research for Blockchain Economy

Mathematical Research for Blockchain Economy
Author: Panos Pardalos
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 177
Release: 2020-10-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3030533565
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This book presents the best papers from the 2nd International Conference on Mathematical Research for Blockchain Economy (MARBLE) 2020, held in Vilamoura, Portugal. While most blockchain conferences and forums are dedicated to business applications, product development or Initial Coin Offering (ICO) launches, this conference focused on the mathematics behind blockchain to bridge the gap between practice and theory. Blockchain Technology has been considered as the most fundamental and revolutionising invention since the Internet. Every year, thousands of blockchain projects are launched and circulated in the market, and there is a tremendous wealth of blockchain applications, from finance to healthcare, education, media, logistics and more. However, due to theoretical and technical barriers, most of these applications are impractical for use in a real-world business context. The papers in this book reveal the challenges and limitations, such as scalability, latency, privacy and security, and showcase solutions and developments to overcome them.

Handbook of Multi-Commodity Markets and Products

Handbook of Multi-Commodity Markets and Products
Author: Andrea Roncoroni
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 1067
Release: 2015-02-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0470662506
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Handbook of Multi-Commodity Markets and ProductsOver recent decades, the marketplace has seen an increasing integration, not only among different types of commodity markets such as energy, agricultural, and metals, but also with financial markets. This trend raises important questions about how to identify and analyse opportunities in and manage risks of commodity products. The Handbook of Multi-Commodity Markets and Products offers traders, commodity brokers, and other professionals a practical and comprehensive manual that covers market structure and functioning, as well as the practice of trading across a wide range of commodity markets and products. Written in non-technical language, this important resource includes the information needed to begin to master the complexities of and to operate successfully in today’s challenging and fluctuating commodity marketplace. Designed as a practical practitioner-orientated resource, the book includes a detailed overview of key markets – oil, coal, electricity, emissions, weather, industrial metals, freight, agricultural and foreign exchange – and contains a set of tools for analysing, pricing and managing risk for the individual markets. Market features and the main functioning rules of the markets in question are presented, along with the structure of basic financial products and standardised deals. A range of vital topics such as stochastic and econometric modelling, market structure analysis, contract engineering, as well as risk assessment and management are presented and discussed in detail with illustrative examples to commodity markets. The authors showcase how to structure and manage both simple and more complex multi-commodity deals. Addressing the issues of profit-making and risk management, the book reveals how to exploit pay-off profiles and trading strategies on a diversified set of commodity prices. In addition, the book explores how to price energy products and other commodities belonging to markets segmented across specific structural features. The Handbook of Multi-Commodity Markets and Products includes a wealth of proven methods and useful models that can be selected and developed in order to make appropriate estimations of the future evolution of prices and appropriate valuations of products. The authors additionally explore market risk issues and what measures of risk should be adopted for the purpose of accurately assessing exposure from multi-commodity portfolios. This vital resource offers the models, tools, strategies and general information commodity brokers and other professionals need to succeed in today’s highly competitive marketplace.

Empirical derivative pricing with LME industrial metal data

Empirical derivative pricing with LME industrial metal data
Author: Christian Stepanek
Publisher: Cuvillier Verlag
Total Pages: 214
Release: 2015-08-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3736980841
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This thesis is focused on empirical examinations of commodity derivatives. Commodity futures and options are very important for companies in hedging their commodity price risks. Financial institutions participate also in commodity derivative markets either to gain exposure to commodity prices, diversify their portfolios, or hedge commodity price risk from financial transactions. But also retail investors have been more and more interested in commodity investments for some years. Because of their limited access to commodity markets, they have to rely on special commodity SFPs issued by banks. However, in contrast to derivatives with standard underlyings, such as stocks or bonds, there are various specific aspects to commodity derivatives. Especially interesting from academic as well as practitioners’ point of view are the pricing relations between spot and derivative prices, which are closely linked to market fundamentals. But also from the financialization of commodity markets arise several subjects which require scientific examination. I identify in this thesis several unresolved research questions on commodity futures, options, and SFPs. This way it is possible to offer insights in derivative markets for industrial companies, financial institutions, and retail investors alike.