Terms Of Trade Shocks Are Not All Alike PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Terms Of Trade Shocks Are Not All Alike PDF full book. Access full book title Terms Of Trade Shocks Are Not All Alike.
| Author | : Federico Di Pace |
| Publisher | : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND |
| Total Pages | : 61 |
| Release | : 2020-12-11 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9781513563916 |
Download Terms-of-Trade Shocks are Not all Alike Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
When analyzing terms-of-trade shocks, it is implicitly assumed that the economy responds symmetrically to changes in export and import prices. Using a sample of developing countries our paper shows that this is not the case. We construct export and import price indices using commodity and manufacturing price data matched with trade shares and separately identify export price, import price, and global economic activity shocks using sign and narrative restrictions. Taken together, export and import price shocks account for around 40 percent of output fluctuations but export price shocks are, on average, twice as important as import price shocks for domestic business cycles.
| Author | : Luciana Juvenal |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 59 |
| Release | : 2020 |
| Genre | : Business cycles |
| ISBN | : |
Download Not All Terms of Trade Shocks are Alike Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
When analyzing terms of trade shocks, it is implicitly assumed that the economy responds symmetrically to changes in export and import prices. Using a sample of developing countries our paper shows that this is not the case. We construct export and import prices using commodity and manufacturing price data matched with trade shares and separately identify export price, import price and global demand shocks using sign and narrative restrictions. Our findings indicate that, taken together, export and import price shocks account for around 40 percent of output fluctuations. We also find that global demand shocks, which simultaneously affect export and import prices, are often undetected in the terms of trade measure despite having a large effect on business cycles.
| Author | : Bertrand Gruss |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 38 |
| Release | : 2019-01-24 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484393856 |
Download Commodity Terms of Trade Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This paper presents a comprehensive database of country-specific commodity price indices for 182 economies covering the period 1962-2018. For each country, the change in the international price of up to 45 individual commodities is weighted using commodity-level trade data. The database includes a commodity terms-of-trade index—which proxies the windfall gains and losses of income associated with changes in world prices—as well as additional country-specific series, including commodity export and import price indices. We provide indices that are constructed using, alternatively, fixed weights (based on average trade flows over several decades) and time-varying weights (which can account for time variation in the mix of commodities traded and the overall importance of commodities in economic activity). The paper also discusses the dynamics of commodity terms of trade across country groups and their influence on key macroeconomic aggregates.
| Author | : Mr.Paul Cashin |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 41 |
| Release | : 1998-12-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 145197504X |
Download Terms of Trade Shocks and the Current Account Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This paper examines the relationship between terms of trade shocks, private saving, and the current account position. The relationship between these variables is theoretically ambiguous: an adverse transitory terms of trade shock can either induce a deterioration or an improvement in the current account, depending on whether the resulting income effects are greater or less than the resulting substitution effects. The substitution effects involve both intertemporally substituting consumption and intratemporally substituting consumption between importables and nontradables. The relative strength of these substitution effects is estimated using data for five OECD countries during 1970/95; both are found to exert large and significant effects on the current account balance.
| Author | : Jarkko P. Jääskelä |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2013 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download Terms of Trade Shocks Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This article describes and quantifies the macroeconomic effects of different types of terms of trade shocks and their propagation in the Australian economy. Three types of shocks are identified based on their impact on commodity prices, global manufactured prices and global economic activity. The first two shocks, a world demand shock and a commodity-market-specific shock, are fairly standard. The third shock, a globalisation shock that may result, for instance, from the increasing importance of China, India and eastern Europe in the global economy, is more novel. The globalisation shock is associated with a decline in manufactured prices, a rise in commodity prices and an increase in global economic activity. Determining the underlying source of variation in the terms of trade is shown to be important for understanding the impact on the Australian economy as all three shocks propagate through the economy in different ways. The relative contribution of each shock to inflation, output, interest rates and the exchange rate has also varied over time. The main conclusion of the article is that a higher terms of trade tends to be expansionary but is not always inflationary. A key result is that the floating exchange rate has provided an important buffer to the external shocks that move the terms of trade.
| Author | : Jarkko Jääskelä |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 32 |
| Release | : 2011 |
| Genre | : Balance of trade |
| ISBN | : |
Download Terms of Trade Shocks Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This paper describes and quantifies the macroeconomic effects of different types of terms of trade shocks and their propagation in the Australian economy. Three types of shocks are identified based on their impact on commodity prices, global manufactured prices, and global economic activity. The first two shocks, a world demand shock and a commodity-market specific shock are fairly standard. The third shock, a globalisation shock that may result, for instance, from the increasing importance of China, India and eastern Europe in the global economy is more novel. The globalisation shock is associated with a decline in manufactured prices, a rise in commodity prices, and an increase in global economic activity. Determining the underlying source of variation in the terms of trade is shown to be important for understanding the impact on the Australian economy as all three shocks propagate through the economy in different ways. The relative contribution of each shock to inflation, output, interest rates, and the exchange rate has also varied over time. The main conclusion of the paper is that a higher terms of trade tends to be expansionary but is not always inflationary. A key result is that the floating exchange rate has provided an important buffer to the external shocks that move the terms of trade.
| Author | : Mr.Enrique G. Mendoza |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 61 |
| Release | : 1992-11-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1451852061 |
Download The Terms of Trade and Economic Fluctuations Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
A three-good, stochastic intertemporal equilibrium model of a small open economy is used to examine the link between terms of trade and business cycles. Equilibrium co-movements of model economies representing industrial and developing countries are computed and compared with the stylized facts of 30 countries. The results show that terms-of-trade shocks account for half of observed output variability and that the model mimics the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect and produces large deviations from purchasing power parity. The elasticity of substitution between tradable and nontradable goods and the persistence of the shocks play a key role in producing these results.
| Author | : Martín Uribe |
| Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
| Total Pages | : 646 |
| Release | : 2017-04-04 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0691158770 |
Download Open Economy Macroeconomics Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
A cutting-edge graduate-level textbook on the macroeconomics of international trade Combining theoretical models and data in ways unimaginable just a few years ago, open economy macroeconomics has experienced enormous growth over the past several decades. This rigorous and self-contained textbook brings graduate students, scholars, and policymakers to the research frontier and provides the tools and context necessary for new research and policy proposals. Martín Uribe and Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé factor in the discipline's latest developments, including major theoretical advances in incorporating financial and nominal frictions into microfounded dynamic models of the open economy, the availability of macro- and microdata for emerging and developed countries, and a revolution in the tools available to simulate and estimate dynamic stochastic models. The authors begin with a canonical general equilibrium model of an open economy and then build levels of complexity through the coverage of important topics such as international business-cycle analysis, financial frictions as drivers and transmitters of business cycles and global crises, sovereign default, pecuniary externalities, involuntary unemployment, optimal macroprudential policy, and the role of nominal rigidities in shaping optimal exchange-rate policy. Based on courses taught at several universities, Open Economy Macroeconomics is an essential resource for students, researchers, and practitioners. Detailed exploration of international business-cycle analysis Coverage of financial frictions as drivers and transmitters of business cycles and global crises Extensive investigation of nominal rigidities and their role in shaping optimal exchange-rate policy Other topics include fixed exchange-rate regimes, involuntary unemployment, optimal macroprudential policy, and sovereign default and debt sustainability Chapters include exercises and replication codes
| Author | : Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé |
| Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
| Total Pages | : 483 |
| Release | : 2022-09-06 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0691189544 |
Download International Macroeconomics Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
An essential introduction to one of the most timely and important subjects in economics International Macroeconomics presents a rigorous and theoretically elegant treatment of real-world international macroeconomic problems, incorporating the latest economic research while maintaining a microfounded, optimizing, and dynamic general equilibrium approach. This one-of-a-kind textbook introduces a basic model and applies it to fundamental questions in international economics, including the determinants of the current account in small and large economies, processes of adjustment to shocks, the determinants of the real exchange rate, the role of fixed and flexible exchange rates in models with nominal rigidities, and interactions between monetary and fiscal policy. The book confronts theoretical predictions using actual data, highlighting both the power and limits of given theories and encouraging critical thinking. Provides a rigorous and elegant treatment of fundamental questions in international macroeconomics Brings undergraduate and master’s instruction in line with modern economic research Follows a microfounded, optimizing, and dynamic general equilibrium approach Addresses fundamental questions in international economics, such as the role of capital controls in the presence of financial frictions and balance-of-payments crises Uses real-world data to test the predictions of theoretical models Features a wealth of exercises at the end of each chapter that challenge students to hone their theoretical skills and scrutinize the empirical relevance of models Accompanied by a website with lecture slides for every chapter
| Author | : Mr.Kangni R Kpodar |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 35 |
| Release | : 2019-03-25 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1498304907 |
Download Financial Deepening, Terms of Trade Shocks, and Growth Volatility in Low-Income Countries Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This paper contributes to the literature by looking at the possible relevance of the structure of the financial system—whether financial intermediation is performed through banks or markets—for macroeconomic volatility, against the backdrop of increased policy attention on strengthening growth resilience. With low-income countries (LICs) being the most vulnerable to large and frequent terms of trade shocks, the paper focuses on a sample of 38 LICs over the period 1978-2012 and finds that banking sector development acts as a shock-absorber in poor countries, dampening the transmission of terms of trade shocks to growth volatility. Expanding the sample to 121 developing countries confirms this result, although this role of shock-absorber fades away as economies grow richer. Stock market development, by contrast, appears neither to be a shock-absorber nor a shock-amplifier for most economies. These findings are consistent across a range of econometric estimators, including fixed effect, system GMM and local projection estimates.
