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Term Structure of Interest Rates with Short-Run and Long-Run Risks

Term Structure of Interest Rates with Short-Run and Long-Run Risks
Author: Olesya V. Grishchenko
Publisher:
Total Pages: 74
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:
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Interest rate variance risk premium (IRVRP), the difference between implied and realized variances of interest rates, emerges as a strong predictor of Treasury bond returns of maturities ranging between one and ten years for return horizons up to six months. IRVRP is not subsumed by other predictors such as forward rate spread or equity variance risk premium. These results are robust in a number of dimensions. We rationalize our findings within a consumption-based model with long-run risk, economic uncertainty, and inflation non-neutrality. In the model interest rate variance risk premium is related to short-run risk only, while standard forward-rate-based factors are associated with both short-run and long-run risks in the economy. Our model qualitatively replicates the predictability pattern of IRVRP for bond returns.

Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Author: Rajna Gibson
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
Total Pages: 171
Release: 2010
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1601983727
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Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates provides a comprehensive review of the continuous-time modeling techniques of the term structure applicable to value and hedge default-free bonds and other interest rate derivatives.

Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Author: Mirko Abbritti
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 41
Release: 2013-11-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475513313
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This paper introduces global factors within a FAVAR framework in an empirical affine term structure model. We apply our method to a panel of international yield curves and show that global factors account for more than 80 percent of term premia in advanced economies. In particular they tend to explain long-term dynamics in yield curves, as opposed to domestic factors which are instead more relevant to short-run movements. We uncover the key role for global curvature in shaping term premia dynamics. We show that this novel factor precedes global economic and financial instability. In particular, it coincides with immediate expectations of permanent expansionary monetary policy during the recent crisis.

Long Run Risks in the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Long Run Risks in the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Author: Taeyoung Doh
Publisher:
Total Pages: 44
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:
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Using Bayesian methods, this paper estimates a model in which persistent fluctuations in expected consumption growth, expected inflation, and their timevarying volatility determine asset price variation. The analysis of the U.S. nominal term structure data from 1953 to 2006 shows that i) agents dislike high uncertainty and demand compensation for volatility risks, ii) the time variation of the term premium is driven by the compensation for fluctuating inflation volatility, and iii) estimates of risk factors are broadly consistent with survey data evidence.

A Monetary Explanation of the Term Structure of Interest Rates and Bond Risk Premia

A Monetary Explanation of the Term Structure of Interest Rates and Bond Risk Premia
Author: Hwagyun Kim
Publisher:
Total Pages: 52
Release: 2011
Genre:
ISBN:
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This paper presents a monetary model of the term structure of interest rates. This model is intended to explain the stylized facts in Treasury yields including counter cyclical variations of bond risk premia without challenging both short-run and long-run monetary facts. To this end, we study the roles of a segmented asset market, habit formation, and inflation targeting in a cash-in-advance model. We provide a monetary general equilibrium justification of an affine term structure model with a flexible market price of risk. Quantitative results show that the model can capture the features in the nominal term structure.

Term Structure of Interest Rates

Term Structure of Interest Rates
Author: Burton Gordon Malkiel
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 294
Release: 2015-12-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1400879787
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Can expectations alone explain the yield differentials among bonds of different maturities? To what extend do attitudes toward risk and transactions costs influence the behavior of bond investors? Is it possible for the Federal Reserve to "twist" the interest-rate structure in accordance with its policy objectives? These are among the questions treated. Originally published in 1966. The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.