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Author | : George Wright |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 608 |
Release | : 1994-11 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : |
Download Subjective Probability Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This overview of subjective probability ranges from discussion of the philosophy of axiom systems through studies in the psychological laboratory to the real world of business decision-making.
Author | : Richard Jeffrey |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 144 |
Release | : 2004-04-12 |
Genre | : Mathematics |
ISBN | : 9780521536684 |
Download Subjective Probability Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Sample Text
Author | : Steven G. Vick |
Publisher | : ASCE Publications |
Total Pages | : 469 |
Release | : 2002-01-01 |
Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
ISBN | : 0784470863 |
Download Degrees of Belief Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Observing at a risk analysis conference for civil engineers that participants did not share a common language of probability, Vick, a consultant and geotechnic engineer, set out to not only examine why, but to also bridge the gap. He reexamines three elements at the core of engineering the concepts
Author | : Henry Ely Kyburg |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 278 |
Release | : 1980 |
Genre | : Mathematics |
ISBN | : |
Download Studies in Subjective Probability Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Truth and probability; Foresight: its logical laws, its subjective sources; The bases of probability; Subjective probability as the measure of a non-measurable set; The elicitation of personal probabilities; Probability: beware of falsifications; Probable knowledge.
Author | : Jim Albert |
Publisher | : CRC Press |
Total Pages | : 553 |
Release | : 2019-12-06 |
Genre | : Mathematics |
ISBN | : 1351030132 |
Download Probability and Bayesian Modeling Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Probability and Bayesian Modeling is an introduction to probability and Bayesian thinking for undergraduate students with a calculus background. The first part of the book provides a broad view of probability including foundations, conditional probability, discrete and continuous distributions, and joint distributions. Statistical inference is presented completely from a Bayesian perspective. The text introduces inference and prediction for a single proportion and a single mean from Normal sampling. After fundamentals of Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms are introduced, Bayesian inference is described for hierarchical and regression models including logistic regression. The book presents several case studies motivated by some historical Bayesian studies and the authors’ research. This text reflects modern Bayesian statistical practice. Simulation is introduced in all the probability chapters and extensively used in the Bayesian material to simulate from the posterior and predictive distributions. One chapter describes the basic tenets of Metropolis and Gibbs sampling algorithms; however several chapters introduce the fundamentals of Bayesian inference for conjugate priors to deepen understanding. Strategies for constructing prior distributions are described in situations when one has substantial prior information and for cases where one has weak prior knowledge. One chapter introduces hierarchical Bayesian modeling as a practical way of combining data from different groups. There is an extensive discussion of Bayesian regression models including the construction of informative priors, inference about functions of the parameters of interest, prediction, and model selection. The text uses JAGS (Just Another Gibbs Sampler) as a general-purpose computational method for simulating from posterior distributions for a variety of Bayesian models. An R package ProbBayes is available containing all of the book datasets and special functions for illustrating concepts from the book. A complete solutions manual is available for instructors who adopt the book in the Additional Resources section.
Author | : Fabio Spizzichino |
Publisher | : CRC Press |
Total Pages | : 269 |
Release | : 2001-06-28 |
Genre | : Mathematics |
ISBN | : 1420036130 |
Download Subjective Probability Models for Lifetimes Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Bayesian methods in reliability cannot be fully utilized and understood without full comprehension of the essential differences that exist between frequentist probability and subjective probability. Switching from the frequentist to the subjective approach requires that some fundamental concepts be rethought and suitably redefined. Subjecti
Author | : Persi Diaconis |
Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
Total Pages | : 270 |
Release | : 2019-10-08 |
Genre | : Mathematics |
ISBN | : 0691196397 |
Download Ten Great Ideas about Chance Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
In the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries, gamblers and mathematicians transformed the idea of chance from a mystery into the discipline of probability, setting the stage for a series of breakthroughs that enabled or transformed innumerable fields, from gambling, mathematics, statistics, economics, and finance to physics and computer science. This book tells the story of ten great ideas about chance and the thinkers who developed them, tracing the philosophical implications of these ideas as well as their mathematical impact.
Author | : Lionel A. Galway |
Publisher | : Rand Corporation |
Total Pages | : 43 |
Release | : 2007 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0833040111 |
Download Subjective Probability Distribution Elicitation in Cost Risk Analysis Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
A cost estimate for a project such as the acquisition of a new aircraft or satellite system carries with it an inherent probability that the actual cost will exceed the estimate-that changes in requirements, technology, the economic environment, and a multitude of other factors that may occur over the life of the project will change the final cost. One major approach to cost risk analysis-the evaluating and quantifying of the uncertainty of a cost estimate-has been probabilistic: expressing the uncertainty in a cost estimate as a probability distribution over a range of potential costs. Cost analysts in industry and government and researchers in statistics and management have often proposed that, to get probability distributions for platforms using new and untried technologies, expert judgment should be tapped and subjective probability distributions elicited from the experts to represent cost uncertainty. This technical report reviews procedures for eliciting subjective probability distributions in cost risk analysis, both in the cost risk field and in other disciplines in which elicitation has been a topic of research-primarily, statistics and psychology. Because of a lack of empirical work in elicitation, especially in cost risk, the author also interviewed a number of senior people in the cost risk community, who gave insight into the practices of the field. This report should be of interest to cost analysis professionals who wish to quantify uncertainty when using expert opinions in cost risk analysis.
Author | : S. James Press |
Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
Total Pages | : 591 |
Release | : 2009-09-25 |
Genre | : Mathematics |
ISBN | : 0470317949 |
Download Subjective and Objective Bayesian Statistics Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Ein Wiley-Klassiker über Bayes-Statistik, jetzt in durchgesehener und erweiterter Neuauflage! - Werk spiegelt die stürmische Entwicklung dieses Gebietes innerhalb der letzten Jahre wider - vollständige Darstellung der theoretischen Grundlagen - jetzt ergänzt durch unzählige Anwendungsbeispiele - die wichtigsten modernen Methoden (u. a. hierarchische Modellierung, linear-dynamische Modellierung, Metaanalyse, MCMC-Simulationen) - einzigartige Diskussion der Finetti-Transformierten und anderer Themen, über die man ansonsten nur spärliche Informationen findet - Lösungen zu den Übungsaufgaben sind enthalten
Author | : Richard Jeffrey |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 124 |
Release | : 2004-04-12 |
Genre | : Mathematics |
ISBN | : 9780521829717 |
Download Subjective Probability Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
A concise survey of basic probability theory from a thoroughly subjective point of view.