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Simplicity, Inference and Modelling

Simplicity, Inference and Modelling
Author: Arnold Zellner
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 314
Release: 2002-02-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1139432389
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The idea that simplicity matters in science is as old as science itself, with the much cited example of Ockham's Razor, 'entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem': entities are not to be multiplied beyond necessity. A problem with Ockham's razor is that nearly everybody seems to accept it, but few are able to define its exact meaning and to make it operational in a non-arbitrary way. Using a multidisciplinary perspective including philosophers, mathematicians, econometricians and economists, this 2002 monograph examines simplicity by asking six questions: what is meant by simplicity? How is simplicity measured? Is there an optimum trade-off between simplicity and goodness-of-fit? What is the relation between simplicity and empirical modelling? What is the relation between simplicity and prediction? What is the connection between simplicity and convenience? The book concludes with reflections on simplicity by Nobel Laureates in Economics.

Simplicity, Inference and Modeling

Simplicity, Inference and Modeling
Author: Arnold Zellner
Publisher:
Total Pages: 302
Release: 2001
Genre: Econometrics
ISBN: 9786610154869
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The idea that simplicity matters in science is as old as science itself, with the much cited example of Ockham's Razor, 'entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem': entities are not to be multiplied beyond necessity. Using a multidisciplinary perspective this monograph asks 'What is meant by simplicity?'

Foundations of Info-metrics

Foundations of Info-metrics
Author: Amos Golan
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 489
Release: 2018
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0199349525
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Info-metrics is the science of modeling, reasoning, and drawing inferences under conditions of noisy and insufficient information. It is at the intersection of information theory, statistical inference, and decision-making under uncertainty. It plays an important role in helping make informed decisions even when there is inadequate or incomplete information because it provides a framework to process available information with minimal reliance on assumptions that cannot be validated. In this pioneering book, Amos Golan, a leader in info-metrics, focuses on unifying information processing, modeling and inference within a single constrained optimization framework. Foundations of Info-Metrics provides an overview of modeling and inference, rather than a problem specific model, and progresses from the simple premise that information is often insufficient to provide a unique answer for decisions we wish to make. Each decision, or solution, is derived from the available input information along with a choice of inferential procedure. The book contains numerous multidisciplinary applications and case studies, which demonstrate the simplicity and generality of the framework in real world settings. Examples include initial diagnosis at an emergency room, optimal dose decisions, election forecasting, network and information aggregation, weather pattern analyses, portfolio allocation, strategy inference for interacting entities, incorporation of prior information, option pricing, and modeling an interacting social system. Graphical representations illustrate how results can be visualized while exercises and problem sets facilitate extensions. This book is this designed to be accessible for researchers, graduate students, and practitioners across the disciplines.

Simplicity, Complexity and Modelling

Simplicity, Complexity and Modelling
Author: Mike Christie
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 285
Release: 2011-10-19
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1119960967
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Several points of disagreement exist between different modelling traditions as to whether complex models are always better than simpler models, as to how to combine results from different models and how to propagate model uncertainty into forecasts. This book represents the result of collaboration between scientists from many disciplines to show how these conflicts can be resolved. Key Features: Introduces important concepts in modelling, outlining different traditions in the use of simple and complex modelling in statistics. Provides numerous case studies on complex modelling, such as climate change, flood risk and new drug development. Concentrates on varying models, including flood risk analysis models, the petrol industry forecasts and summarizes the evolution of water distribution systems. Written by experienced statisticians and engineers in order to facilitate communication between modellers in different disciplines. Provides a glossary giving terms commonly used in different modelling traditions. This book provides a much-needed reference guide to approaching statistical modelling. Scientists involved with modelling complex systems in areas such as climate change, flood prediction and prevention, financial market modelling and systems engineering will benefit from this book. It will also be a useful source of modelling case histories.

Model Selection and Multimodel Inference

Model Selection and Multimodel Inference
Author: Kenneth P. Burnham
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 512
Release: 2007-05-28
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 0387224564
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A unique and comprehensive text on the philosophy of model-based data analysis and strategy for the analysis of empirical data. The book introduces information theoretic approaches and focuses critical attention on a priori modeling and the selection of a good approximating model that best represents the inference supported by the data. It contains several new approaches to estimating model selection uncertainty and incorporating selection uncertainty into estimates of precision. An array of examples is given to illustrate various technical issues. The text has been written for biologists and statisticians using models for making inferences from empirical data.

Statistical Inference as Severe Testing

Statistical Inference as Severe Testing
Author: Deborah G. Mayo
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 503
Release: 2018-09-20
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1108563309
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Mounting failures of replication in social and biological sciences give a new urgency to critically appraising proposed reforms. This book pulls back the cover on disagreements between experts charged with restoring integrity to science. It denies two pervasive views of the role of probability in inference: to assign degrees of belief, and to control error rates in a long run. If statistical consumers are unaware of assumptions behind rival evidence reforms, they can't scrutinize the consequences that affect them (in personalized medicine, psychology, etc.). The book sets sail with a simple tool: if little has been done to rule out flaws in inferring a claim, then it has not passed a severe test. Many methods advocated by data experts do not stand up to severe scrutiny and are in tension with successful strategies for blocking or accounting for cherry picking and selective reporting. Through a series of excursions and exhibits, the philosophy and history of inductive inference come alive. Philosophical tools are put to work to solve problems about science and pseudoscience, induction and falsification.

On Statistical Pattern Recognition in Independent Component Analysis Mixture Modelling

On Statistical Pattern Recognition in Independent Component Analysis Mixture Modelling
Author: Addisson Salazar
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 200
Release: 2012-07-20
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 3642307523
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A natural evolution of statistical signal processing, in connection with the progressive increase in computational power, has been exploiting higher-order information. Thus, high-order spectral analysis and nonlinear adaptive filtering have received the attention of many researchers. One of the most successful techniques for non-linear processing of data with complex non-Gaussian distributions is the independent component analysis mixture modelling (ICAMM). This thesis defines a novel formalism for pattern recognition and classification based on ICAMM, which unifies a certain number of pattern recognition tasks allowing generalization. The versatile and powerful framework developed in this work can deal with data obtained from quite different areas, such as image processing, impact-echo testing, cultural heritage, hypnograms analysis, web-mining and might therefore be employed to solve many different real-world problems.

Journal of Biblical and Theological Studies, Issue 2.2

Journal of Biblical and Theological Studies, Issue 2.2
Author: Daniel S. Diffey
Publisher: Wipf and Stock Publishers
Total Pages: 274
Release: 2017-11-03
Genre: Religion
ISBN: 1725250543
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The Journal of Biblical and Theological Studies (JBTS) is an academic journal focused on the fields of Bible and Theology from an inter-denominational point of view. The journal is comprised of an editorial board of scholars that represent several academic institutions throughout the world. JBTS is concerned with presenting high-level original scholarship in an approachable way. Academic journals are often written by scholars for other scholars. They are technical in nature, assuming a robust knowledge of the field. There are fewer journals that seek to introduce biblical and theological scholarship that is also accessible to students. JBTS seeks to provide high-level scholarship and research to both scholars and students, which results in original scholarship that is readable and accessible. As an inter-denominational journal JBTS is broadly evangelical. We accept contributions in all theological disciplines from any evangelical perspective. In particular, we encourage articles and book reviews within the fields of Old Testament, New Testament, Biblical Theology, Church History, Systematic Theology, Practical Theology, Philosophical Theology, Philosophy, and Ethics.

Model-Free Prediction and Regression

Model-Free Prediction and Regression
Author: Dimitris N. Politis
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 256
Release: 2015-11-13
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 3319213474
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The Model-Free Prediction Principle expounded upon in this monograph is based on the simple notion of transforming a complex dataset to one that is easier to work with, e.g., i.i.d. or Gaussian. As such, it restores the emphasis on observable quantities, i.e., current and future data, as opposed to unobservable model parameters and estimates thereof, and yields optimal predictors in diverse settings such as regression and time series. Furthermore, the Model-Free Bootstrap takes us beyond point prediction in order to construct frequentist prediction intervals without resort to unrealistic assumptions such as normality. Prediction has been traditionally approached via a model-based paradigm, i.e., (a) fit a model to the data at hand, and (b) use the fitted model to extrapolate/predict future data. Due to both mathematical and computational constraints, 20th century statistical practice focused mostly on parametric models. Fortunately, with the advent of widely accessible powerful computing in the late 1970s, computer-intensive methods such as the bootstrap and cross-validation freed practitioners from the limitations of parametric models, and paved the way towards the `big data' era of the 21st century. Nonetheless, there is a further step one may take, i.e., going beyond even nonparametric models; this is where the Model-Free Prediction Principle is useful. Interestingly, being able to predict a response variable Y associated with a regressor variable X taking on any possible value seems to inadvertently also achieve the main goal of modeling, i.e., trying to describe how Y depends on X. Hence, as prediction can be treated as a by-product of model-fitting, key estimation problems can be addressed as a by-product of being able to perform prediction. In other words, a practitioner can use Model-Free Prediction ideas in order to additionally obtain point estimates and confidence intervals for relevant parameters leading to an alternative, transformation-based approach to statistical inference.