Short Term Forecasting For Empirical Economists PDF Download
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Author | : Máximo Camacho |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 59 |
Release | : 2013 |
Genre | : Economic forecasting |
ISBN | : 9781601987433 |
Download Short-term Forecasting for Empirical Economists Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Practitioners do not always use research findings, sometimes because the research is not always conducted in a manner relevant to real-world practice. This survey seeks to close the gap between research and practice on short-term forecasting in real time. Towards this end, we review the most relevant recent contributions to the literature, examine their pros and cons, and we take the liberty of proposing some lines of future research. We include bridge equations, MIDAS, VARs, factor models and Markov-switching factor models, all allowing for mixed-frequency and ragged ends. Using the four constituent monthly series of the Stock-Watson coincident index, industrial production, employment, income and sales, we evaluate their empirical performance to forecast quarterly US GDP growth rates in real time. Finally, we review the main results regarding the number of predictors in factor based forecasts and how the selection of the more informative or representative variables can be made.
Author | : Maximo Camacho |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 74 |
Release | : 2013-11-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9781601987426 |
Download Short-Term Forecasting for Empirical Economists Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Short-term Forecasting for Empirical Economists seeks to close the gap between research and applied short-term forecasting. The authors review some of the key theoretical results and empirical findings in the recent literature on short-term forecasting, and translate these findings into economically meaningful techniques to facilitate their widespread application to compute short-term forecasts in economics, and to monitor the ongoing business cycle developments in real time.
Author | : Karl-Heinz Tödter |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 52 |
Release | : 2016 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Download How Useful is the Carry-Over Effect for Short-Term Economic Forecasting? Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The carry-over effect is the advance contribution of the old year to growth in the new year. Among practitioners the informative content of the carry-over effect for short-term forecasting is undisputed and is used routinely in economic forecasting. In this paper, the carry-over effect is analysed 'statistically' and it is shown how it reduces the uncertainty of short-term economic forecasts. This is followed by an empirical analysis of the carry-over effect using simple forecast models as well as Bundesbank and Consensus projections.
Author | : Hans G. Graf |
Publisher | : Bloomsbury Publishing USA |
Total Pages | : 264 |
Release | : 2002-08-30 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0313017417 |
Download Economic Forecasting for Management Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Before future-oriented information can be used as a basis for decision making in economics or business administration, it must be understood on a methodological level. This book provides decision makers with a thorough understanding of the possibilities offered by various forecasting methods as well as their limitations. If managers rely on a forecast with a long-term perspective to guide them in making short-term decisions, planning deficiencies will likely result. Likewise, if managers use short-term forecasts to inform their long-term strategic vision, failure could easily ensue. Graf provides the tools necessary to sidestep the common pitfall of using the wrong forecasting technique for the wrong purpose. This is not a detailed examination of the mathematical and statistical tools of empirical economic research. Instead, forecasting methods are explained so that they can be understood by the managers who employ them in their decision making. Graf demonstrates that understanding and—in special cases—cooperation between forecast developers and users is crucial to creating an effective forecast that results in informed management decisions. He discusses traditional, long-term, macroeconomic, and global economic forecasting; the scenario technique as a central instrument of long-term forecasting; and short-term economic and market forecasting.
Author | : Victor Zarnowitz |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 168 |
Release | : 1967 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : |
Download An Appraisal of Short-term Economic Forecasts Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
First report on a study of short term economic forecasting in the USA. Statistical tables, and references.
Author | : Jean-Marie Dufour |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 248 |
Release | : 2012-12-06 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 3642487424 |
Download New Developments in Time Series Econometrics Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This book contains eleven articles which provide empirical applications as well as theoretical extensions of some of the most exciting recent developments in time-series econometrics. The papers are grouped around three broad themes: (I) the modeling of multivariate times series; (II) the analysis of structural change; (III) seasonality and fractional integration. Since these themes are closely inter-related, several other topics covered are also worth stressing: vector autoregressive (VAR) models, cointegration and error-correction models, nonparametric methods in time series, and fractionally integrated models. Researchers and students interested in macroeconomic and empirical finance will find in this collection a remarkably representative sample of recent work in this area.
Author | : Thomas Url |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 245 |
Release | : 2012-12-06 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 3642997821 |
Download Econometrics of Short and Unreliable Time Series Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The disappearance of central planned economies left politicians, researchers, consultants, and academics with an interest in economies in transition in vagueness about the actual state of the economy and its short and medium term prospects. This volume provides the reader with information on how to deal with the statistical shortcomings of economies in transition. Most economic variables published for these countries tend to encompass a short period of time or they possess a low measurement quality. Moreover, most of the series are subject to structural breaks, due to the change in the patterns of economic reactions over time. The contributions in this volume show various ways to solve or at least to lessen the before mentioned problems.
Author | : Graham Elliott |
Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
Total Pages | : 566 |
Release | : 2016-04-05 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0691140138 |
Download Economic Forecasting Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike
Author | : |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 349 |
Release | : 1955 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Download Short-term Economic Forecasting Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : Elia Xacapyr |
Publisher | : Routledge |
Total Pages | : 200 |
Release | : 2016-09-16 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1315480670 |
Download Economic Forecasting: The State of the Art Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
An overview of the macroeconomic forecasting industry in the United States that explains and evaluates the forecasting techniques used to make predictions about various aspects of the national economy.