Russian Arctic Intentions PDF Download

"As the Arctic continues to open up and the region achieves new geo-political importance, Russia is re-asserting itself in the region in order to regain its position as a 'Great Power.' Therefore, analyzing Russia's Arctic Policy via the instruments of national power, will determine what Russia has actually accomplished, compared to its announced intentions in the region. This is especially important due to increasing regional tensions and the overall dearth of balanced views among the "analyses of Arctic affairs." Despite its unique and remote geography, global politics and security challenges affect the Arctic. The effects of climate change is one of the many driving forces behind the Arctic's new geo-political importance, as previously inaccessible natural resources have the potential to become available for extraction from the region. Tension between Russia and other Arctic states are resulting from the competition over these newly uncovered, valuable natural resources and the possible economic impact of access to northern waterways, particularly the Northern Sea Route (NSR). Overall, Russia's Arctic Policy is a consistent part of the overall pattern of Russian foreign policy, regaining its 'Great Power' status on the world stage, lost with the fall of the Soviet Union. The overarching goal of Russia's Arctic policy is to secure and maintain its access to Arctic economic resources, critical to Russia's national security. Consequently, the region is one of Russia's top priorities in foreign policy, economic development, and security strategy. Russian leadership regularly uses foreign policy in ways to allow them the flexibility to be pragmatic in the method used to promote Russia's national interests. Russia continues to pursue its regional ambitions via negotiations and peaceful dispute through existing institutional mechanisms, in particular the UN. It is also crucial to recognize the Russian government's view of bilateral and multilateral compromise as the best current method to fulfill its own national interests. These institutions provide Russia a method of enhancing its global status by highlighting itself as a reliable member of global community. Economic power is another method Russia is utilizing to propel it back to 'Great Power' status. Russia's economy is heavily dependent on oil and natural gas exports, and as Russia possesses over half of all the Arctic's proven hydrocarbon resources, extracting them is a strategic imperative. The NSR is another viable a source of steady income and Russia intends to capitalize on increased shipping traffic through the Arctic. The guise of maritime security on the NSR also provides Russia an alternative means to exert control in the region, and provides an additional pressure point on other powers, evidenced by Russia's declared right to deny access, seize ships, or use other tactics. Since the end of Putin's second term, the military has garnered an enhanced role in efforts to return Russia to a 'Great Power' status. Over the past ten years, Russia poured billions of dollars into its armed forces, steadily increasing its military capabilities in the Arctic. Moscow is concerned the 'West' plans to try to deprive Russia of its Arctic resources and control of the NSR, thus Russia is strengthening its Arctic forces as a deterrent. Furthermore, Russian military activity in the air and sea has out-paced all other Arctic nations, and its Northern Fleet makes Russia the dominant Arctic power. Currently, Russian political, military, and economic interests in the region continue to complement each other due to Russia's long-term strategy for the Arctic. The most likely assessment of Russia's Arctic intentions is Russia hedging its bets and attempting to play a "win win" Arctic strategy; emphasizing its international cooperation foreign policy via the UN and other institutions, while gaining early military and commercial regional supremacy. Russia supports diplomatic, economic, and some military cooperation in the Arctic, in an attempt to secure regional its hegemony. As Russia is the most prepared of the Arctic nations to exploit any opportunities available, how long will Russia maintain this dual approach, or will it rely on an aggressive defense posture to shape the future of the Arctic to its liking?"--Abstract.