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| Author | : Bennett T. McCallum |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 50 |
| Release | : 1999 |
| Genre | : Monetary policy |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Bennett T. McCallum |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2000 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
This paper concerns the minimal-state-variable (MSV) criterion for selection among solutions in rational expectations (RE) models that feature a multiplicity of paths that satisfy all of the model's conditions. It compares the MSV criterion with others that have been proposed, including the widely used saddle-path (or dynamic stability) criterion. It is emphasized that the MSV criterion can be viewed as a classification scheme that delineates the unique solution that is free of bubble or sunspot components. This scheme is of scientific value as it (a) yields a single solution upon which a researcher can focus attention if desired and (b) provides the basis for a substantive hypothesis that actual market outcomes are generally of a bubble-free nature. In the process of demonstrating uniqueness of the MSV solution for a broad class of linear models, the paper exposits a convenient and practical computational procedure. Also, several applications to current issues regarding monetary policy are outlined
| Author | : Roger Guesnerie |
| Publisher | : MIT Press |
| Total Pages | : 498 |
| Release | : 2005-02-18 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780262262903 |
A theoretical assessment of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis through subjecting a collection of economic models to an "eductive stability" test. The rational expectations hypothesis (REH) dominates economic modeling in areas ranging from monetary theory, macroeconomics, and general equilibrium to finance. In this book, Roger Guesnerie continues the critical analysis of the REH begun in his Assessing Rational Expectations: Sunspot Multiplicity and Economic Fluctuations, which dealt with the questions raised by multiplicity and its implications for a theory of endogenous fluctuations. This second volume emphasizes "eductive" learning: relying on careful reasoning, agents must deduce what other agents guess, a process that differs from the standard evolutionary learning experience in which agents make decisions about the future based on past experiences. A broad "eductive" stability test is proposed that includes common knowledge and results in a unique "rationalizable expectations equilibrium." This test provides the basis for Guesnerie's theoretical assessment of the plausibility of the REH's expectational coordination, emphasizing, for different categories of economic models, conditions for the REH's success or failure. Guesnerie begins by presenting the concepts and methods of the eductive stability analysis in selected partial equilibrium models. He then explores to what extent general equilibrium strategic complementarities interfere with partial equilibrium considerations in the formation of stable expectations. Guesnerie next examines two issues relating to eductive stability in financial market models, speculation and asymmetric price information. The dynamic settings of an infinite horizon model are then taken up, and particular standard and generalized saddle-path solutions are scrutinized. Guesnerie concludes with a review of general questions and some "cautious" remarks on the policy implications of his analysis.
| Author | : Charles H. Whiteman |
| Publisher | : U of Minnesota Press |
| Total Pages | : 151 |
| Release | : 1984 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1452907935 |
| Author | : Mr.Maxym Kryshko |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 62 |
| Release | : 2011-09-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1463904215 |
When estimating DSGE models, the number of observable economic variables is usually kept small, and it is conveniently assumed that DSGE model variables are perfectly measured by a single data series. Building upon Boivin and Giannoni (2006), we relax these two assumptions and estimate a fairly simple monetary DSGE model on a richer data set. Using post-1983 U.S.data on real output, inflation, nominal interest rates, measures of inverse money velocity, and a large panel of informational series, we compare the data-rich DSGE model with the regular - few observables, perfect measurement - DSGE model in terms of deep parameter estimates, propagation of monetary policy and technology shocks and sources of business cycle fluctuations. We document that the data-rich DSGE model generates a higher implied duration of Calvo price contracts and a lower slope of the New Keynesian Phillips curve. To reduce the computational costs of the likelihood-based estimation, we employed a novel speedup as in Jungbacker and Koopman (2008) and achieved the time savings of 60 percent.
| Author | : Bennett T. McCallum |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 66 |
| Release | : 1981 |
| Genre | : Econometrics |
| ISBN | : |
Many macroeconomic models involving rational expect at ions give rise to an infinity of solution paths, even when the models are linear in all variables. Some writers have suggested that this non-uniqueness constitutes a serious weakness for the rational expectations hypothesis. One purpose of the present paper is to argue that the non-uniqueness in question is not properly attributable to the rationality hypothesis but, instead, is a general feature of dynamic models involving expectations. It is also argued that there typically exists, in a very wide class of linear rational expectations models, a single solution that excludes "bubble" or "bootstrap" effects ones that occur only because they are arbitrarily expected to occur. A systematic procedure for obtaining solutions free from such effects is introduced and discussed. In addition, this procedure is used to interpret and reconsider several prominent examples with solution multiplicities, including ones developed by Fischer Black and John B. Taylor. [Resumen de autor]
| Author | : George W. Evans |
| Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
| Total Pages | : 440 |
| Release | : 2012-01-06 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1400824265 |
A crucial challenge for economists is figuring out how people interpret the world and form expectations that will likely influence their economic activity. Inflation, asset prices, exchange rates, investment, and consumption are just some of the economic variables that are largely explained by expectations. Here George Evans and Seppo Honkapohja bring new explanatory power to a variety of expectation formation models by focusing on the learning factor. Whereas the rational expectations paradigm offers the prevailing method to determining expectations, it assumes very theoretical knowledge on the part of economic actors. Evans and Honkapohja contribute to a growing body of research positing that households and firms learn by making forecasts using observed data, updating their forecast rules over time in response to errors. This book is the first systematic development of the new statistical learning approach. Depending on the particular economic structure, the economy may converge to a standard rational-expectations or a "rational bubble" solution, or exhibit persistent learning dynamics. The learning approach also provides tools to assess the importance of new models with expectational indeterminacy, in which expectations are an independent cause of macroeconomic fluctuations. Moreover, learning dynamics provide a theory for the evolution of expectations and selection between alternative equilibria, with implications for business cycles, asset price volatility, and policy. This book provides an authoritative treatment of this emerging field, developing the analytical techniques in detail and using them to synthesize and extend existing research.
| Author | : Jan Wenzelburger |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 181 |
| Release | : 2006-09-22 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3540380507 |
Recently economists have more and more focussed on scenarios in which agents' views of the world may be erroneous. These notes introduce the concept of perfect forecasting rules which provide best least-squares predictions along the evolution of an economic system. The framework for nonparametric adaptive learning schemes is developed and it is argued that plausible learning schemes should aim at estimating a perfect forecasting rule taking into account the correct feedback structure of an economy. A link is provided between the traditional rational-expectations view and recent behavioristic approaches.
| Author | : Mr.Peter Isard |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 304 |
| Release | : 2000-01-24 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9781557758347 |
This book contains the proceedings of a conference held in honor of Robert P. Flood Jr. Contributors to the conference were invited to address many of the topics that Robert Flood has explored including regime switching, speculative attacks, bubbles, stock market voloatility, macro models with nominal rigidities, dual exchange rates, target zones, and rules versus discretion in monetary policy. The results, contained in this volume, include five papers on topics in international finance.
| Author | : Ben J. Heijdra |
| Publisher | : Oxford University Press |
| Total Pages | : 937 |
| Release | : 2017 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0198784139 |
Using nothing more than undergraduate mathematical skills this book takes the reader from basic IS-LM style macro models to the state of the art literature on Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium. Dealing with all major topics it summarizes important approaches and provides a coherent angle on macroeconomic thought.
