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| Author | : João Tovar Jalles |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 31 |
| Release | : 2023-04-29 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
Download Revisiting the Countercyclicality of Fiscal Policy Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This paper provides a novel dataset of time-varying measures on the degree of countercyclicality of fiscal policies for advanced and developing economies between 1980 and 2021. The use of time-varying measures of fiscal stabilization, with special attention to potential endogenity issues, overcomes the major limitation of previous studies and alllows the analysis to account for both country-specific as well as global factors. The paper also examines the key determinants of countercyclicality of fiscal policy with a focus on factors as severe crises, informality, financial development, and governance. Empirical results show that (i) fiscal policy tends to be more counter-cyclical during severe crises than typical recessions, especially for advanced economies; (ii) fiscal counter-cyclicality has increased over time for many economies over the last two decades; (iii) discretionary and automatic countercyclicality are both strong in advanced economies but acyclical (at times procyclical) in low-income countries, (iv) fiscal countercyclicality operates primarily through the expenditure channel, particularly for social benefits, (vi) better financial development, larger government size and stronger institutional quality are associated with larger countercyclical effects of fiscal policy. Our results are robust to various specifications and endogeneity checks.
| Author | : Ms.Martine Guerguil |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 47 |
| Release | : 2016-01-22 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513529064 |
Download Flexible Fiscal Rules and Countercyclical Fiscal Policy Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This paper assesses the impact of different types of flexible fiscal rules on the procyclicality of fiscal policy with propensity scores-matching techniques, thus mitigating traditional self-selection problems. It finds that not all fiscal rules have the same impact: the design matters. Specifically, investment-friendly rules reduce the procyclicality of both overall and investment spending. The effect appears stronger in bad times and when the rule is enacted at the national level. The introduction of escape clauses in fiscal rules does not seem to affect the cyclical stance of public spending. The inclusion of cyclical adjustment features in spending rules yields broadly similar results. The results are mixed for cyclically-adjusted budget balance rules: enacting the latter is associated with countercyclical movements in overall spending, but with procyclical changes in investment spending. Structural factors, such as past debt, the level of development, the volatility of terms of trade, natural resources endowment, government stability, and the legal enforcement and monitoring arrangements backing the rule also influence the link between fiscal rules and countercyclicality. The results are robust to a wide set of alternative specifications.
| Author | : Francisco G. Carneiro |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2016 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download Revisiting the Evidence on the Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy across the World Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
| Author | : Carlos Budnevich L. |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 34 |
| Release | : 2002 |
| Genre | : Business cycles |
| ISBN | : |
Download Countercyclical Fiscal Policy Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
| Author | : Luis Felipe Céspedes |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2013 |
| Genre | : Economics |
| ISBN | : |
Download Was this Time Different? Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
We revisit the issue of fiscal procyclicality in commodity-rich nations -commodity republics in the nomenclature of this paper. Since commodity prices are plausibly a main driver of fiscal policy outcomes in these countries, we focus on the behavior of fiscal variables across the commodity cycle, in contrast to behavior across the output cycle, which has been the main focus of earlier research on fiscal procyclicality. We present evidence of reduced fiscal policy procyclicality in a number of countries. Our empirical results suggest that improvements in institutional quality have led to a more countercyclical fiscal policy stance in a number of countries. The presence of fiscal rules also seems to have made a difference: countries that use them displayed a larger shift toward fiscal counter-cyclicality between the two episodes.
| Author | : Mr.Jaromir Benes |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 71 |
| Release | : 2012-08-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1475505523 |
Download The Chicago Plan Revisited Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
At the height of the Great Depression a number of leading U.S. economists advanced a proposal for monetary reform that became known as the Chicago Plan. It envisaged the separation of the monetary and credit functions of the banking system, by requiring 100% reserve backing for deposits. Irving Fisher (1936) claimed the following advantages for this plan: (1) Much better control of a major source of business cycle fluctuations, sudden increases and contractions of bank credit and of the supply of bank-created money. (2) Complete elimination of bank runs. (3) Dramatic reduction of the (net) public debt. (4) Dramatic reduction of private debt, as money creation no longer requires simultaneous debt creation. We study these claims by embedding a comprehensive and carefully calibrated model of the banking system in a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. We find support for all four of Fisher's claims. Furthermore, output gains approach 10 percent, and steady state inflation can drop to zero without posing problems for the conduct of monetary policy.
| Author | : Allan Dizioli |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 40 |
| Release | : 2017-12-22 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484336240 |
Download Australia’s Fiscal Framework: Revisiting Options for a Fiscal Anchor Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This paper revisits options for fiscal anchors in Australia against the backdrop of a medium-term budget balance anchor that has led to larger than expected upward drift in the net debt to GDP ratio since the end of the mining investment boom. The IMF’s G20MOD model is used to compare the budget balance anchor with a long-term debt anchor. Using model simulations evaluated against objective macro stabilization-debt control criteria under three likely scenarios for the Australian economy, the latter is found to perform at least as well as the former. The paper also considers the operationalization of a long-term debt anchor utilizing a combination of fiscal rules which includes expenditure restrictions and a flexible time horizon for convergence, aiming at encouraging countercyclical fiscal policy and minimizing the cost in terms of real GDP foregone in the medium term under fiscal consolidation.
| Author | : Jihad Dagher |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 89 |
| Release | : 2018-01-15 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484337743 |
Download Regulatory Cycles: Revisiting the Political Economy of Financial Crises Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Financial crises are traditionally analyzed as purely economic phenomena. The political economy of financial booms and busts remains both under-emphasized and limited to isolated episodes. This paper examines the political economy of financial policy during ten of the most infamous financial booms and busts since the 18th century, and presents consistent evidence of pro-cyclical regulatory policies by governments. Financial booms, and risk-taking during these episodes, were often amplified by political regulatory stimuli, credit subsidies, and an increasing light-touch approach to financial supervision. The regulatory backlash that ensues from financial crises can only be understood in the context of the deep political ramifications of these crises. Post-crisis regulations do not always survive the following boom. The interplay between politics and financial policy over these cycles deserves further attention. History suggests that politics can be the undoing of macro-prudential regulations.
| Author | : Mr.Alberto Alesina |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 52 |
| Release | : 1996-07-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1451960433 |
Download Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This paper studies how the composition of fiscal adjustments influences their likelihood of “success”, defined as a long lasting deficit reduction, and their macroeconomic consequences. We find that fiscal adjustments which rely primarily on spending cuts on transfers and the government wage bill have a better chance of being successful and are expansionary. On the contrary fiscal adjustments which rely primarily on tax increases and cuts in public investment tend not to last and are contractionary. We discuss alterative explanations for these findings by studying both a full sample of OECD countries and by focusing on three case studies: Denmark, Ireland and Italy.
| Author | : International Monetary Fund |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 33 |
| Release | : 1998-03-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1451844239 |
Download Coordination of Monetary and Fiscal Policies Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Recently, monetary authorities have increasingly focused on implementing policies to ensure price stability and strengthen central bank independence. Simultaneously, in the fiscal area, market development has allowed public debt managers to focus more on cost minimization. This “divorce” of monetary and debt management functions in no way lessens the need for effective coordination of monetary and fiscal policy if overall economic performance is to be optimized and maintained in the long term. This paper analyzes these issues based on a review of the relevant literature and of country experiences from an institutional and operational perspective.
