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An Examination of Aggregate Price Uncertainty in Four Countries and Some Implications for Real Output

An Examination of Aggregate Price Uncertainty in Four Countries and Some Implications for Real Output
Author: Richard T. Froyen
Publisher:
Total Pages: 56
Release: 1984
Genre: Inflation (Finance)
ISBN:

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This study constructs measures of aggregate price uncertainty for four industrialized countries (Canada, West Germany, Great Britain, and the United States) and attempts to assess the extent to which more rapid and more variable price changes appear to have contributed to increased aggregate price uncertainty. For this purpose we examine the relationship across countries and through time between the rate of inflation, inflation variability, and our measures of price uncertainty. In addition we use our measures of price uncertainty to examine the hypothesis, variously put forward by Marshall, Keynes, Milton Friedman, and Okun, that higher aggregate price uncertainty is likely tor esult in lower real output and higher unemployment. Our results suggest that the higher and more variable inflation of the 1970s did increase uncertainty about the aggregate price level in Canada, Great Britain and the United States, but the evidence for West Germany would not sustain such a conclusion. Finally, we did find evidence of a significant negative output effect of aggregate price uncertainty for Canada and the United Kingdom, but not for the United States or West Germany.


An Examination of Aggregate Price Uncertainty in Four Countries and SomeImplications for Real Output

An Examination of Aggregate Price Uncertainty in Four Countries and SomeImplications for Real Output
Author: Roger N. Waud
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 1987
Genre:
ISBN:

Download An Examination of Aggregate Price Uncertainty in Four Countries and SomeImplications for Real Output Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle

This study constructs measures of aggregate price uncertainty for four industrialized countries (Canada, West Germany, Great Britain, and the United States) and attempts to assess the extent to which more rapid and more variable price changes appear to have contributed to increased aggregate price uncertainty. For this purpose we examine the relationship across countries and through time between the rate of inflation, inflation variability, and our measures of price uncertainty. In addition we use our measures of price uncertainty to examine the hypothesis, variously put forward by Marshall, Keynes, Milton Friedman, and Okun, that higher aggregate price uncertainty is likely tor esult in lower real output and higher unemployment. Our results suggest that the higher and more variable inflation of the 1970s did increase uncertainty about the aggregate price level in Canada, Great Britain and the United States, but the evidence for West Germany would not sustain such a conclusion. Finally, we did find evidence of a significant negative output effect of aggregate price uncertainty for Canada and the United Kingdom, but not for the United States or West Germany


The Effects of Inflation on Relative Price Variability

The Effects of Inflation on Relative Price Variability
Author: Rodrigo Andres Cerda
Publisher:
Total Pages: 33
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:

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We use Chilean monthly data on the prices of 23 food products, between November 1970 and December 1976, to study: (i) the pass-through from the aggregate price to product-specific prices and, (ii) the effects of aggregate inflation on relative price variability. This is done in a context of price liberalization, which serves as a natural experiment to study whether these relationships change when there is price fixing. On the one hand, our results suggest that all prices increase after liberalization, but that this increase is larger for prices that were fixed. Moreover, the effect of the aggregate price on product-specific prices is, on average, positive an almost one-to-one, irrespective of the specification used. On the other hand, we find an average positive impact of inflation on relative price variability. Nonetheless, the latter result crucially depends on prices that were not liberalized: following the liberalization episode, inflation positively affected the relative price variability of fixed prices, while it had no effect on the relative price variability of liberalized prices. This suggests that the channel through which inflation affects relative price variability is its effects on products with fixed prices rather than prices determined by market forces.


Inflation and Relative-Price Variability

Inflation and Relative-Price Variability
Author: Rajeev K. Goel
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

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Using quarterly US data for 1948-89, we study the effect of the level of commodity aggregation on the relation between inflation and relative-price variability. The effect is assessed for the full period and the subperiods 1948-73 and 1974-89. The relationship is investigated for actual inflation as well as its expected and unexpected components. Although the parameter estimates show sizeable differences across the two aggregation levels, the qualitative picture is the same for both levels in all cases. One of the by-products of the exercise is the observation that unexpected inflation shows a much stronger positive covariation with relative-price variability than the expected component.


Inflation Expectations

Inflation Expectations
Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 402
Release: 2009-12-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1135179778

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Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.


Distributional Conflict and Inflation

Distributional Conflict and Inflation
Author: R. Burdekin
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 303
Release: 1996-08-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0230371736

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There has been relatively little work applying the conflict inflation approach in different theoretical and historical settings. This book remedies this gap by treating private-sector distributional conflicts as well as government budgetary pressures on the money supply and the price level. Attention is drawn to the costs of non-accommodative policies in a conflict setting - and to the additional difficulties of non-accommodation likely associated with the use of exchange rate pegging as a disinflation device.