Recent Experiences In Managing Capital Inflows Cross Cutting Themes And Possible Policy Framework PDF Download

This supplement provides further information on some of the issues covered in Recent Experiences in Managing Capital Inflows—Cross-Cutting Themes and Possible Policy Framework that have been highlighted in staff’s informal discussions with Directors. These include the role of supply-side factors behind the surge in capital flows and the nature of the framework pertaining to the use of capital flow management measures (CFMs).

Emerging markets (EMs) are experiencing a surge in capital inflows, lifting asset prices and growth prospects. While inflows are typically beneficial for receiving countries, inflow surges can carry macroeconomic and financial stability risks. This paper reviews the recent experience of EMs in dealing with capital inflows and suggests a possible framework for IMF policy advice on the spectrum of measures available to policymakers to manage inflows, including macroeconomic policies, prudential measures and capital controls. Illustrative applications of this framework suggest that it may be appropriate for several countries, based on their current circumstances, to consider prudential measures or capital controls in response to capital inflows. The suggested framework is intended to inform staff policy advice to all Fund members with open capital accounts. It forms part of a broader effort to sharpen Fund surveillance, preserve evenhandedness, and foster greater global policy coordination. As indicated in the Supplement to this paper, this broader effort includes the development of “global rules of the game” on macroprudential policies, capital account liberalization, and reserve adequacy, and the preparation of spillover reports assessing spillovers from the five systemic economies—all of which will inform the current and broader framework being developed.

The management of capital inflows is an area where historically the Fund has found it difficult to find a clear consensus. Yet our policy advice clearly cannot exclude a whole swath of economic policies—still less an area where the benefits of getting it right are significant, the economic and financial risks of getting it wrong large, and the potential global gains from internalizing multilateral considerations substantial.