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Handbook of Risk Theory

Handbook of Risk Theory
Author: Rafaela Hillerbrand
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 1209
Release: 2012-01-12
Genre: Science
ISBN: 9400714335

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Risk has become one of the main topics in fields as diverse as engineering, medicine and economics, and it is also studied by social scientists, psychologists and legal scholars. But the topic of risk also leads to more fundamental questions such as: What is risk? What can decision theory contribute to the analysis of risk? What does the human perception of risk mean for society? How should we judge whether a risk is morally acceptable or not? Over the last couple of decades questions like these have attracted interest from philosophers and other scholars into risk theory. This handbook provides for an overview into key topics in a major new field of research. It addresses a wide range of topics, ranging from decision theory, risk perception to ethics and social implications of risk, and it also addresses specific case studies. It aims to promote communication and information among all those who are interested in theoetical issues concerning risk and uncertainty. This handbook brings together internationally leading philosophers and scholars from other disciplines who work on risk theory. The contributions are accessibly written and highly relevant to issues that are studied by risk scholars. We hope that the Handbook of Risk Theory will be a helpful starting point for all risk scholars who are interested in broadening and deepening their current perspectives.


Thinking in Bets

Thinking in Bets
Author: Annie Duke
Publisher: Penguin
Total Pages: 289
Release: 2019-05-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0735216371

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A Wall Street Journal bestseller, now in paperback. Poker champion turned decision strategist Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions. Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there's always information hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes, and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run.


The Great Mental Models, Volume 1

The Great Mental Models, Volume 1
Author: Shane Parrish
Publisher: Penguin
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2024-10-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0593719972

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Discover the essential thinking tools you’ve been missing with The Great Mental Models series by Shane Parrish, New York Times bestselling author and the mind behind the acclaimed Farnam Street blog and “The Knowledge Project” podcast. This first book in the series is your guide to learning the crucial thinking tools nobody ever taught you. Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have credited their success to mental models–representations of how something works that can scale onto other fields. Mastering a small number of mental models enables you to rapidly grasp new information, identify patterns others miss, and avoid the common mistakes that hold people back. The Great Mental Models: Volume 1, General Thinking Concepts shows you how making a few tiny changes in the way you think can deliver big results. Drawing on examples from history, business, art, and science, this book details nine of the most versatile, all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making and productivity. This book will teach you how to: Avoid blind spots when looking at problems. Find non-obvious solutions. Anticipate and achieve desired outcomes. Play to your strengths, avoid your weaknesses, … and more. The Great Mental Models series demystifies once elusive concepts and illuminates rich knowledge that traditional education overlooks. This series is the most comprehensive and accessible guide on using mental models to better understand our world, solve problems, and gain an advantage.


Simply Rational

Simply Rational
Author: Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher: Evolution and Cognition
Total Pages: 329
Release: 2015
Genre: Psychology
ISBN: 019939007X

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Statistical illiteracy can have an enormously negative impact on decision making. This volume of collected papers brings together applied and theoretical research on risks and decision making across the fields of medicine, psychology, and economics. Collectively, the essays demonstrate why the frame in which statistics are communicated is essential for broader understanding and sound decision making, and that understanding risks and uncertainty has wide-reaching implications for daily life. Gerd Gigerenzer provides a lucid review and catalog of concrete instances of heuristics, or rules of thumb, that people and animals rely on to make decisions under uncertainty, explaining why these are very often more rational than probability models. After a critical look at behavioral theories that do not model actual psychological processes, the book concludes with a call for a heuristic revolution that will enable us to understand the ecological rationality of both statistics and heuristics, and bring a dose of sanity to the study of rationality.


Making Decisions That Matter

Making Decisions That Matter
Author: Kathleen M. Galotti
Publisher: Psychology Press
Total Pages: 184
Release: 2005-07-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1135664889

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The goal of this book is to describe ongoing research that examines real people making real decsions, and compares it with theoretical predications to provide readers with "food for thought" when it comes to their own decision making & to point out quest


How to Make Big Decisions Wisely

How to Make Big Decisions Wisely
Author: Alan Ehler
Publisher: Zondervan
Total Pages: 209
Release: 2020-02-25
Genre: Religion
ISBN: 0310106516

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Our decisions determine our lives. Invest in a company that goes bankrupt and you lose your life savings. Say the wrong thing in an interview and you miss the job of the lifetime. Make no decisions and you miss every opportunity. In today's rapidly changing world, the cost of poor decisions (and no decisions) is higher than ever. In How to Make Good Decisions Wisely, author and scholar Alan Ehler lays out a clear approach to making big decisions based on the Bible and recent discoveries in neuroscience and decision science. He presents a simple, four-step process that can be followed to make any kind of decision, whether personal, professional, or relational. Making big decisions can rewrite lives, careers, families, churches, and businesses. A lot is at stake. Learn how to choose well.


Real-Life Decision-Making

Real-Life Decision-Making
Author: Mats Danielson
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2023-08
Genre: Decision making
ISBN: 9781032524399

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Have you ever experienced a decision situation that was hard to come to grips with? Did you ever feel a need to improve your decision-making skills? Is this something where you feel that you have not learned enough practical and useful methods? In that case, you are not alone! Even though decision-making is both considered and actually also is a very important skill in modern work-life as well as in private life, these skills are not to any reasonable extent taught in schools at any level. No wonder many people do indeed feel the need to improve but have a hard time finding out how. This book is an attempt to remedy this shortcoming of our educational systems and possibly also of our common, partly intuition-based, decision culture. Intuition is not at all bad, quite the contrary, but it has to co-exist with rationality. We will show you how. Methods for decision-making should be of prime concern to any individual or organisation, even if the decision processes are not always explicitly or even consciously formulated. All kinds of organisations, as well as individuals, must continuously make decisions of the most varied nature in order to prosper and attain their objectives. A large part of the time spent in any organisation, not least at management levels, is spent gathering, processing, and compiling information for the purpose of making decisions supported by that information. The same interest has hitherto not been shown for individual decision-making, even though large gains would also be obtained at a personal level if important personal decisions were better deliberated. This book aims at changing that and thus attends to both categories of decision-makers. This book will take you through a journey starting with some history of decision-making and analysis and then go through easy-to-learn ways of structuring decision information and methods for analysing the decision situations, beginning with simple decision situations and then moving on to progressively harder ones, but never losing sight of the overarching goal that the reader should be able to follow the progression and being able to carry out similar decision analyses in real-life situations. The Open Access version of this book, available at http: //www.taylorfrancis.com, has been made available under a Creative Commons [Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives (CC-BY-NC-ND)] 4.0 license. Funded by Stockholm University DSV


The Little Black Book of Decision Making

The Little Black Book of Decision Making
Author: Michael Nicholas
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 256
Release: 2017-08-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0857087029

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The secret to making the right call in an increasingly complex world The decisions we make every day – frequently automatic and incredibly fast – impact every area of our lives. The Little Black Book of Decision Making delves into the cognition behind decision making, guiding you through the different ways your mind approaches various scenarios. You'll learn to notice that decision making is a matter of balance between your rational side and your intuition – the trick is in honing your intuition to steer you down the right path. Pure reasoning cannot provide all of the answers, and relying solely on intuition could prove catastrophic in business. There must be a balance between the two, and the proportions may change with each situation. This book helps you quickly pinpoint the right mix of logic and 'gut feeling,' and use it to find the best possible solution. Balance logic and intuition in your decision making approach Avoid traps set by the mind's inherent bias Understand the cognitive process of decision making Sharpen your professional judgement in any situation Decision making is the primary difference between organisations that lead and those that struggle. The Little Black Book of Decision Making helps you uncover errors in thinking before they become errors in judgement.


How Women Decide

How Women Decide
Author: Therese Huston
Publisher: HMH
Total Pages: 387
Release: 2016-05-10
Genre: Psychology
ISBN: 0544416104

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“An authoritative guide to help women navigate the workplace and their everyday life with greater success and impact” (Forbes). So, you’ve earned a seat at the table. What happens next? We all face hard decisions every day—and the choices we make, and how others perceive them, can be life changing. There are countless books on how to make those tough calls, but How Women Decide is the first to examine a much overlooked truth: Men and women reach verdicts differently, and often in surprising ways. Stress? It makes women more focused. Confidence? Caution can lead to stronger resolutions. And despite popular misconceptions, women are just as decisive as men—though they may pay for it. Pulling from the latest science on decision-making, as well as lively stories of real women and their experiences, cognitive scientist Therese Huston teaches us how we can better shape our habits, perceptions, and strategies, not just to make the most of our own opportunities, but to reform the culture and bring out the best results—regardless of who’s behind them.


Better Decisions, Fewer Regrets

Better Decisions, Fewer Regrets
Author: Andy Stanley
Publisher: Zondervan
Total Pages: 193
Release: 2020-10-20
Genre: Religion
ISBN: 031053710X

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Set yourself up for success in every season of life, for the rest of your life. Discover five game-changing questions to ask every time you make a major decision regarding your finances, relationships, career, and more. Good questions lead to better decisions. And your decisions determine the direction and quality of your life—they create the story of your life. And while nobody plans to complicate their life with bad decisions, far too many people have no plan to make good decisions. In Better Decisions, Fewer Regrets, Andy Stanley—pastor and bestselling author of Irresistible and Not In It To Win It—will help you learn from experience and stop making bad decisions by integrating five questions into every decision you make, big or small. This book will help you live differently by showing you how to: Develop a decision-making filter that reveals which choices will likely lead to positive results. Avoid selling yourself on bad ideas and making quick decisions when time is short. Find truth and clarity in any tricky decision. Improve relationships and heal division through better decisions. Discover the reasons behind your decisions so you can move forward with positive changes. Consider the long-term impact of your choices so you can write a life story worth celebrating. Easily identify any red flags that signal which decisions may result in future regrets.