Quantitative Intelligence Analysis PDF Download

The purpose of this presentation is to illustrate the need for a quantitative analytical capability within organizations and staffs that provide intelligence analysis to Army, Joint, and Coalition Force headquarters. The author presents a brief history of intelligence analysis in World War I, World War II, the Cold War, and the post-Cold War era. Today's threat is nondoctrinal and asymmetric. The means used to counter this threat are based on standardized equipment and capabilities, and they rely on template-based analysis and network diagrams. Template-based analysis works well with doctrinally dependent threats, but it is of limited used against asymmetric threats. The author presents a chart showing the information flow of intelligence in Multi-National Corps - Iraq (MNC-I). What worked in Iraq were single data bases, speed, granularity, trend analysis, ANOVA methods, network flow analysis, geospatial products, correlation/causality, and statistical process control charts. What didn't work were multiple data bases, a push for 100% accuracy, too much granularity, and low R(exp 2) values. The author presents examples of MNC-I intelligence products. A bar chart shows the average weekly attacks by category and time period for the period 1 Jan 2004 to 28 Jan 2005. The chart presents types of attacks during baseline, pre-sovereignty, sovereignty, and election periods. Two other charts show attack times by hour and attacks by MSC for the period 18 Dec 2004 to 28 Jan 2005. These attacks are classified as attacks on IGO, Infrastructure, ISF, Civilians, and MNF-I. A map product shows the density of attacks. In summary, changing threats prompt the development of additional intelligence analysis tools; history has proven that quantitative methods provide value-added to intelligence analysis; quantitative analysis compliments, but does not replace, automated solutions; and quantitative methods can give a high potential payoff with minor resourcing requirements.