Public Debt Sustainability Under Uncertainty PDF Download
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Author | : Rossen Rozenov |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 28 |
Release | : 2017-03-13 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1475587023 |
Download Public Debt Sustainability Under Uncertainty Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The paper offers an approach to assessing the sustainability of public debt taking into account the effect of fiscal policy on output, as well as uncertainty in the model parameters and system dynamics. Uncertainty is specified in general terms, and the analysis is based on the notion of invariant sets. Examples are provided to illustrate how the method can be applied in practice.
Author | : Issouf Samaké |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 44 |
Release | : 2006-12-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1451865554 |
Download Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This paper examines the sustainability of fiscal policy under uncertainty in three emerging market countries, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. For each country, we estimate a vector autoregression (VAR) that includes fiscal and macroeconomic variables. Retrospectively, a historical decomposition shows by how much debt accumulation reflects unsustainable policy, adverse shocks, or both. Prospectively, Monte Carlo techniques reveal the primary surplus that is required to keep the debt/GDP ratio from rising in all but the worst 50 percent, 25 percent, and 10 percent of circumstances. Such a value-at-risk approach presents a clearer menu of policy options than currently used frameworks.
Author | : Cansın Kemal Can |
Publisher | : Cambridge Scholars Publishing |
Total Pages | : 156 |
Release | : 2021-06-09 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1527570789 |
Download Quantifying the Sustainability of Public Debt Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Despite its beneficial aspects, public debt can be hazardous for macroeconomic performance should it reach unrepayable levels as a consequence of snowballing explosive trends. Failure to monitor the existing trend in public debt in order to detect such divergences from the stable path, and the lack of an adaptive public financial management can potentially culminate in a public debt crisis whose disruptive economic impacts can permeate all sectors of the economy very swiftly. However, public debt sustainability is a vague concept with no straightforward operational definitions. In addition, its multi-faceted nature is an impediment for the implementation of real-world appraisal of the fiscal posture from a stability viewpoint. As such, quantifying the public debt sustainability is essential for overhauling the fiscal policies so as to avoid a potential debt crisis stemming from malfunctioning fiscal policies. This book provides the reader with a practical and straightforward framework that outlines a tool for undertaking public debt sustainability analysis. In order to guide further empirical investigations, the discussion in this book is underpinned by a real-world application of the model which highlights the practical aspects of the tool with reference to time-varying empirical evidence from a developing country.
Author | : Ms.Elena Loukoianova |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 27 |
Release | : 2008-02-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1451869029 |
Download A Risk-Based Debt Sustainability Framework Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This paper proposes a new framework for the analysis of public sector debt sustainability. The framework uses concepts and methods from modern practice of contingent claims to develop a quantitative risk-based model of sovereign credit risk. The motivation in developing this framework is to provide a clear and workable complement to traditional debt sustainability analysis which-although it has many useful applications-suffers from the inability to measure risk exposures, default probabilities and credit spreads. Importantly, this new framework can be adapted for policy analysis, including debt and reserve management.
Author | : Barry W. Poulson |
Publisher | : Rowman & Littlefield |
Total Pages | : 389 |
Release | : 2022-01-04 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1666902578 |
Download Public Debt Sustainability Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
As countries recover from the coronavirus pandemic, they are confronted with an even more challenging debt crisis. Xavier Debrun argues in the foreword that in deciding where we go from here that there is no longer a consensus regarding the optimum design and enforcement of fiscal rules. Rather we must address a series of questions and challenges to the conventional wisdom. This book provides an opportunity for scholars to explore these questions from an international perspective, with reference to European countries, and emerging nations as well as the United States.
Author | : Mr.Evan Tanner |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 49 |
Release | : 2013-04-22 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484351495 |
Download Fiscal Sustainability Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This paper critically reviews recent work regarding the sustainability of public debt. It argues that Debt Sustainability Analyses (DSAs) should be more than mere mechanical simulation exercises. Instead, a DSA should be linked to some objective regarding the distribution of fiscal burdens and distortions over time (in the tradition of Barro’s 1979 tax smoothing objective). The paper discusses objective functions that yield simple and transparent fiscal policy rules.
Author | : Benno Ferrarini |
Publisher | : Routledge |
Total Pages | : 227 |
Release | : 2012-11-12 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1136199896 |
Download Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Addressing the Global Financial Crisis required fiscal intervention on a substantial scale by governments around the world. The consequent build up of public debt, in particular its sustainability, have moved centre stage in the policy debate. If the Asia Pacific region is to continue to serve as an engine for global growth its public debt must be sustainable. The book addresses this issue for Asia Pacific as a whole as well as for three of the most dynamic economies in the region: China, India and Vietnam. The book begins with a discussion of the reasons why there is increased attention on debt related issues and outline the contents of the volume. The book also includes fiscal indicators for Developing Member Countries (DMCs) as categorized by the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Debt sustainability for these countries is assessed through extant approaches and with the most updated data sources. It also surveys the extant literature on debt sustainability, outlining the main issues related to debt sustainability and discusses the key implications for the application of debt sustainability analysis in developing Asia. The book highlights the importance of doing individual country studies in view of wide variations in definitions of public expenditure, revenues, contingent liabilities, government structures (e.g. federal), and the like as well as in the impact of debt on interest rates. It provides in-depth debt sustainability analyses of China, India and Vietnam. The book is a comprehensive analytical and empirical update of the sustainability public debt in developing Asia. It breakes new ground in that various characteristics of the sustainability that have not yet been explored in the literature which, nevertheless, are crucial to understanding it. As a consequence, the policy analysis is based on firmer footings than in the extant literature and should prove useful to graduate students, researchers as well as policymakers.
Author | : S. Ali Abbas |
Publisher | : Oxford University Press |
Total Pages | : 288 |
Release | : 2019-10-21 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0192591398 |
Download Sovereign Debt Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The last time global sovereign debt reached the level seen today was at the end of the Second World War, and this shaped a generation of economic policymaking. International institutions were transformed, country policies were often draconian and distortive, and many crises ensued. By the early 1970s, when debt fell back to pre-war levels, the world was radically different. It is likely that changes of a similar magnitude -for better and for worse - will play out over coming decades. Sovereign Debt: A Guide for Economists and Practitioners is an attempt to build some structure around the issues of sovereign debt to help guide economists, practitioners and policymakers through this complicated, but not intractable, subject. Sovereign Debt brings together some of the world's leading researchers and specialists in sovereign debt to cover a range of sub-disciplines within this vast topic. It explores debt management with debt sustainability; debt reduction policies with crisis prevention policies; and the history with the conjuncture. It is a foundation text for all those interested in sovereign debt, with a particular focus real world examples and issues.
Author | : Mr.Carlo Cottarelli |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 26 |
Release | : 1991-12-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1451854862 |
Download Government Ponzi Games and Debt Dynamics Under Uncertainty Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
We investigate the conditions for sustainability of debt roll-over schemes under uncertainty. In contrast with the requirements identified in recent research, we show that a necessary and sufficient condition for sustainability of such schemes is that the asymptotic interest rate on government debt be lower than the asymptotic growth rate of the economy, a natural extension of a familiar criterion in a deterministic framework. However, we also show that for realistic parameter values, Ponzi games that are sustainable in the long run may display explosive patterns over relatively long horizons. This may explain why governments may be reluctant to play Ponzi games even when they are feasible in the long run.
Author | : Mr.Serhan Cevik |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 22 |
Release | : 2019-11-07 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1513519123 |
Download Back to the Future: Fiscal Rules for Regaining Sustainability Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This paper assesses the cyclicality and sustainability of fiscal policy in Belize and applies a stochastic simulation model to determine the optimal set of fiscal rules. The empirical analysis shows that fiscal policy in Belize has been significantly procyclical and unsustainable much of the period since 1976. While the government’s recent commitment to maintain a primary surplus of at least 2 percent of GDP until 2021 is supporting debt reduction, stochastic simulations indicate that further improvement in the primary balance is necessary to reliably bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to a sustainable path. Given Belize’s history of large economic shocks, this paper proposes explicit fiscal rules designed for countercyclical policy and debt sustainability. It recommends integrating such rules into a well-designed fiscal responsibility law and establishing an independent fiscal council to improve accountability and transparency.