Projecting Climate Change Impacts On Forest Growth And Yield For Californias Sierran Mixed Conifer Forests PDF Download

Sierra Nevada forests represent a major ecological and economic resource for the state of California. Changes in climate and disturbance regimes, compounded with changes in forest structure from fire-exclusion, pose a critical challenge to managing Sierran forests for sustained carbon (C) sequestration and ecosystem services. My dissertation research sought to improve our understanding of how changing climate and disturbance will affect forest ecosystems in the Sierra Nevada by accounting for species-specific dynamics and interacting spatial processes that were underrepresented in landscape projections. Given the diverse tree species and forest types that differ in their optimal climate for growth and tolerance of stressors, I simulated forest dynamics in the Sierra Nevada under projected future climate and area burned as well as alternative management strategies with a species-specific, spatially explicit forest landscape model. First, I quantified how projected climate-wildfire interactions would affect forest communities and associated C dynamics. Here, results suggest that, across the Sierra Nevada, forest communities may not change as intact unit over the 21st Century and potential exists for substantial community change and C sequestration decline beyond this century. Then, I assessed the long-term successional trajectory and the ability of the system to sequester C beyond the 21st Century. Assuming climate and wildfire distributions equilibrate at late-century conditions, the results show a committed decline in forest cover and C carrying capacity, suggesting a steep reduction in the contribution of Sierra Nevada forest to the terrestrial C sink. Finally, I quantified how large-scale restoration treatments would alter the effects of changing climate and wildfire on forest C balance. I found that widespread application of fuel treatments would confer greater forest C stock stability. This work offers an improved understanding of how changing environmental conditions will affect the forest ecosystems in the Sierra Nevada and provides insights into using large-scale management strategy to manage the Sierran landscape under novel conditions.